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Thread: 2019 Midwest Regional

  1. #1
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    Default 2019 Midwest Regional

    Thought I'd start a new threat for the regional.

    USI may have gotten a pretty good break in the seeding. I know Ashland has a good record, but they are only 5-5 in their last 10, and it's not against killer competition. Lewis and Bellarmine have drawn teams with lesser records but are much hotter than Ashland. GVSU is 7-1 in their last 8. Walsh is 13-0 in their last 13, including wins over Findlay and Hillsdale.

  2. Default Re: 2019 Midwest Regional

    I agree....this is a good draw for USI.

    Quote Originally Posted by Knightmoves View Post
    Thought I'd start a new threat for the regional.

    USI may have gotten a pretty good break in the seeding. I know Ashland has a good record, but they are only 5-5 in their last 10, and it's not against killer competition. Lewis and Bellarmine have drawn teams with lesser records but are much hotter than Ashland. GVSU is 7-1 in their last 8. Walsh is 13-0 in their last 13, including wins over Findlay and Hillsdale.

  3. #3

    Default Re: 2019 Midwest Regional

    They had a hiccup there at the end but they’ve beat Ferris st twice and split with grand valley in regular season. They were 18-1 before they lost to Davenport and grand valley. If they’re healthy I think it should be a close game. BU lost three in a row there at the end and seem to have turned the corner again so you never know if they’re fighting through injuries or hit a rough patch.

  4. #4

    Default Re: 2019 Midwest Regional

    Masseys predicted scores and probabilities:

    Drury 71 vs. Findlay 72 (50/50)
    Walsh 64 vs. Bellarmine 73 (20/80)
    Grand Valley 67 at Lewis 73 (30/70)
    Ashland 69 vs. Southern Indiana 72 (41/59)

    Findlay 69 vs. Bellarmine 77 (25/75)
    Southern Indiana 73 at Lewis 75 (41/59)

    Bellarmine 71 at Lewis 66 (65/35)

    I'm thinking that Massey is a little overconfident on BU at Lewis, but I guess we'll find out. USI can have a good chance of upsetting Lewis to give us the long anticipated 4th matchup of BU/USI.

  5. #5
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    Default Re: 2019 Midwest Regional

    Quote Originally Posted by schnautza View Post
    Masseys predicted scores and probabilities:

    Drury 71 vs. Findlay 72 (50/50)
    Walsh 64 vs. Bellarmine 73 (20/80)
    Grand Valley 67 at Lewis 73 (30/70)
    Ashland 69 vs. Southern Indiana 72 (41/59)

    Findlay 69 vs. Bellarmine 77 (25/75)
    Southern Indiana 73 at Lewis 75 (41/59)

    Bellarmine 71 at Lewis 66 (65/35)

    I'm thinking that Massey is a little overconfident on BU at Lewis, but I guess we'll find out. USI can have a good chance of upsetting Lewis to give us the long anticipated 4th matchup of BU/USI.
    I can't believe GV is that close to Lewis. I would have guessed a 15-20 point win, and 95/5 favoring Lewis. Haha

  6. #6

    Default Re: 2019 Midwest Regional

    And, for the women since I was kind of curious:

    KY Wesleyan 60 at Drury 86 (2/98)
    Ashland 69 vs. Northern Michigan 60 (79/21)
    Lewis 77 vs. Walsh 66 (83/17)
    Grand Valley 71 vs. Truman 61 (80/20)

    Ashland 74 at Drury 83 (21/79)
    Lewis 65 vs. Grand Valley 69 (40/60)

    Grand Valley 61 at Drury 72 (17/83)

    I think the 3/6 and 4/5 matchups in the first round could/should be closer than that. Not sure anyone stays within 10 of Drury the entire way.

    Quote Originally Posted by schnautza View Post
    Masseys predicted scores and probabilities:

    Drury 71 vs. Findlay 72 (50/50)
    Walsh 64 vs. Bellarmine 73 (20/80)
    Grand Valley 67 at Lewis 73 (30/70)
    Ashland 69 vs. Southern Indiana 72 (41/59)

    Findlay 69 vs. Bellarmine 77 (25/75)
    Southern Indiana 73 at Lewis 75 (41/59)

    Bellarmine 71 at Lewis 66 (65/35)

    I'm thinking that Massey is a little overconfident on BU at Lewis, but I guess we'll find out. USI can have a good chance of upsetting Lewis to give us the long anticipated 4th matchup of BU/USI.

  7. #7

    Default Re: 2019 Midwest Regional

    The problem with Massey numerical ratings is that there does not seem to be any weight given to momentum. If you were gambling on these games, you'd probably put some stock into whether a team is on a roll or backing in. Massey also counts non-d2 games, although it obviously considers overall SOS. Having issued that criticism, I still think those numbers are as good a prediction as you are going to get. The way to test them is to pick a winner against the spread, if it seems tough to do, they are pretty accurate.

    Seems like its been a while since no teams from the same conference are playing each other in the first round, so I went and looked. Its only the second time in 11 years, the other time was 2016. There are no rematches in the first round as well.

  8. #8

    Default Re: 2019 Midwest Regional

    I really think that BU has a tough opponent in Walsh. Walsh is 19-7 in D2 games. They started the season 6-7 in D2 games. They are very young. Their leading scorer is a 6'7" freshman, JT Shumate, who is scoring 19 a game on 52% shooting, 44 % from 3. There are only 2 seniors on the team and they are 8th and 9th in minutes played. Sterling Christy averages a double double (13.5/10). He is the kind of power player that can really hurt BU on the boards. Their season reflects how young the team is, starting poorly but getting better as the season progresses. They played Findlay twice, both at Findlay and lost the first game by a point and won the GMAC final at Findlay. I don't think the GMAC was as good as the GLVC this year, but their 12 game win streak includes wins over Ohio Dom, Lake Erie, Hillsdale, and Findlay, all of whom are solid to good teams.

    On a slightly different note, respcectfully, how does Walsh sign a player as good as Shumate right out of high school? I'd be interested in knowing who else recruited him.

  9. #9

    Default Re: 2019 Midwest Regional

    Shumate is very similar to their 6'7" point guard that they had last year who transferred to D1 Winthrop. He's more of a point forward, though, as they've got a true point guard in Straughter who is quick and an excellent ball handler. Shumate can shoot the 3 or beat you off the dribble. Sterling Christy is an extremely strong power forward. Walsh doesn't have a lot of depth, but their top players are very good.

    I do think Walsh is a dangerous draw for anyone in the Regional. They have been playing white-hot basketball over the last month or more of the season, and they definitely can create matchup problems. Naturally Bellarmine comes in a heavy favorite, but Walsh is definitely not a team to be taken lightly.

  10. Default Re: 2019 Midwest Regional

    Shumate played at Newark High School just outside of Columbus, and may have been overlooked a little as Columbus was loaded with D I talent last year. Schumate signed pretty early last year if I remember correctly. Saw him play a few times in high school and while I thought he was damn good, I would have never thought he would have this kind of freshman season. I believe I heard his father is the girls hs coach at Newark, but not sure as I don't watch much girls basketball (no offense ladies). As to why he wasn't recruited any higher, I am not sure. It will be interesting to see how he fares against all the length Bellarmine has.
    Great matchups in the quarterfinals. The 4-5, 3-6 games are obvious toss-ups, but I think the 1-8 game is more intriguing then it has been in a long time. GVSU is playing extrememly well and has already won two true road games this post season.
    I have Bellarmine as the favorite. Enjoy the games everyone!!

  11. Default Re: 2019 Midwest Regional

    I am going to predict 2 of the 3 top seeds get upset in first...and whomever is left out of those 3 will win region.

    USI...will come out not prepared and get beat by Ashland...same story every year the team will not be ready and Ashland will not be scouted correctly and they will beat usi doing whatever they do best because USI will have no clue what that is and how to stop it.

    Not hating on USI...its just we all have seen this song and dance and it repeats every year...GROUNDWOD DAY

  12. Default Re: 2019 Midwest Regional

    Groundwod Day. That is really good. History is hard to ignore and thus hard to bet on Wod in the tournament. His teams ALWAYS come out flat in the tournament. Even in his 1 win against a roster depleted Wayne State team, we stunk the court up in that win. If I had to bet it would be on Ashland. Grand Valley State is my big upset that I am picking. They have 3 D I starters and the only legitimate shot blocker in the tournament. I have Findlay beating Drury and Bellarmine being the only GLVC team winning.





    Quote Originally Posted by HoosierDaddy View Post
    I am going to predict 2 of the 3 top seeds get upset in first...and whomever is left out of those 3 will win region.

    USI...will come out not prepared and get beat by Ashland...same story every year the team will not be ready and Ashland will not be scouted correctly and they will beat usi doing whatever they do best because USI will have no clue what that is and how to stop it.

    Not hating on USI...its just we all have seen this song and dance and it repeats every year...GROUNDWOD DAY

  13. #13

    Default Re: 2019 Midwest Regional

    My picks for the first round:

    Lewis (very close game)
    Bellarmine
    USI (just to be contrary)
    Findlay (another close one)

  14. #14

    Default Re: 2019 Midwest Regional

    I'm going with top seeds except Drury for the first round.

  15. Default Re: 2019 Midwest Regional

    Quote Originally Posted by schnautza View Post
    I'm going with top seeds except Drury for the first round.
    Really...a GLVC sweep?!? Bold

  16. #16

    Default Re: 2019 Midwest Regional

    Quote Originally Posted by WKYDave View Post
    Really...a GLVC sweep?!? Bold
    I guess I didn't realize it at the time, but yes, coincidentally. I'll add that I think the USI and Drury games are toss-ups, but I do believe both GLVC teams will come out on top, based on end of season performance and wins against other ranked teams.

  17. #17

    Default Re: 2019 Midwest Regional

    WoD 1-5 against regional teams. Par for the WoD.

  18. #18

    Default Re: 2019 Midwest Regional

    If Walsh has an achilles heel, it may be free throw shooting. Their problem is that the guy who leads them in most free throws taken, Christy, is a 39% free throw shooter. It looks like they would be very suceptible to the "hack-a-shaq" strategy. Guys who shoot 39% are likely to be even worse than that in a close game at the end. If nothing else, it seems like an opponent should not hesitate to be very aggressive in keeping him off the boards.

  19. #19

    Default Re: 2019 Midwest Regional

    Quote Originally Posted by Knightmoves View Post
    If Walsh has an achilles heel, it may be free throw shooting. Their problem is that the guy who leads them in most free throws taken, Christy, is a 39% free throw shooter. It looks like they would be very suceptible to the "hack-a-shaq" strategy. Guys who shoot 39% are likely to be even worse than that in a close game at the end. If nothing else, it seems like an opponent should not hesitate to be very aggressive in keeping him off the boards.
    Take Mikayla Berry from the women’s team. She’s adept at hacking!

  20. #20

    Default Re: 2019 Midwest Regional

    It seems odd that the two top seeds are playing the two hottest teams in the first round. The more I look at Walsh, the better they get. Looking at their conference only stats in comparison to Findlay's stats, it really was not an upset that they beat Findlay. Walsh is the better team, especially if you realize that they are a young team who started slowly.

    Lewis is getting no bargain either. GVSU won the GLIAC tournament for a reason and beat a very good and highly motivated Davenport team in the final.

    One or two upsets are definitely possible.

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