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Thread: Atlantic Region

  1. #81

    Default Re: Atlantic Region

    Final

    Bowie State 74

    Shippensburg 70

  2. #82
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    Default Re: Atlantic Region

    You're right on it today!

  3. #83

    Default Re: Atlantic Region

    Quote Originally Posted by IUPalum View Post
    You're right on it today!
    I had a feeling .... it's tough to win there.

  4. #84
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    Default Re: Atlantic Region

    Quote Originally Posted by IUPbigINDIANS View Post
    I had a feeling .... it's tough to win there.
    IUP will give Ship its second straight loss.

  5. #85

    Default Re: Atlantic Region

    Each team's 'sample size' is getting a little better defined. While most wrongly say the regular season is still so 'early' ... it's already 25% (or more) over. Strange to consider

    A quick update on the (current) top teams in the Atlantic Region:

    MEC

    West Liberty (5-0, 7-1)
    Fairmont State (5-0, 7-2)
    Notre Dame (4-1, 7-2)
    Concord (4-1, 6-2)
    Charleston (2-3, 6-3)
    Glenville State (2-3, 5-3)
    Shepherd (2-3, 5-3)

    PSAC

    IUP (2-0, 8-0)
    Shippensburg (5-1, 8-1)
    Mercyhurst (1-1, 5-1)
    East Stroudsburg (2-0, 5-2)
    West Chester (2-0, 6-3)
    Kutztown (1-1, 5-3)
    UPJ (1-1, 5-3)


    CIAA

    Chowan (1-0, 7-0)
    Shaw (1-0, 4-2)
    Virginia State (0-0, 5-3)
    Livingstone (0-0, 4-1)


    The 'Be on the Lookout' list:

    Bowie State - winners of four straight including last night's upset of Shippensburg
    Millersville - They can play and will wreck some havoc in the East
    Virginia Union - Traditionally gets very strong as the season progresses
    Slippery Rock - They have to get it going, right?
    Gannon - Has looked awful for the most part ... but that's usually how Reilly teams look before Christmas. Injuries haven't helped.
    Last edited by IUPbigINDIANS; 12-06-2018 at 07:54 AM.

  6. #86

    Default Re: Atlantic Region

    Quote Originally Posted by IUPbigINDIANS View Post
    Each team's 'sample size' is getting a little better defined. While most wrongly say the regular season is still so 'early' ... it's already 25% (or more) over. Strange to consider

    A quick update on the (current) top teams in the Atlantic Region:

    MEC

    West Liberty (5-0, 7-1)
    Fairmont State (5-0, 7-2)
    Notre Dame (4-1, 7-2)
    Concord (4-1, 6-2)
    Charleston (2-3, 6-3)
    Glenville State (2-3, 5-3)
    Shepherd (2-3, 5-3)

    PSAC

    IUP (2-0, 8-0)
    Shippensburg (5-1, 8-1)
    Mercyhurst (1-1, 5-1)
    East Stroudsburg (2-0, 5-2)
    West Chester (2-0, 6-3)
    Kutztown (1-1, 5-3)
    UPJ (1-1, 5-3)


    CIAA

    Chowan (1-0, 7-0)
    Shaw (1-0, 4-2)
    Virginia State (0-0, 5-3)
    Livingstone (0-0, 4-1)


    The 'Be on the Lookout' list:

    Bowie State - winners of four straight including last night's upset of Shippensburg
    Millersville - They can play and will wreck some havoc in the East
    Virginia Union - Traditionally gets very strong as the season progresses
    Slippery Rock - They have to get it going, right?
    Gannon - Has looked awful for the most part ... but that's usually how Reilly teams look before Christmas. Injuries haven't helped.
    No love for the Western arm of the Serbian National Team down in Buckhannon? I think WV Wesleyan will continue to be a tough out. Their schedule has pitted them against some of their most difficult competition early on (losses to FSU, Shepherd, and WLU). And they have two quality PSAC wins from opening weekend. I suspect they'll be a team to add to your "Be on the Lookout" list once they get into the easier portion of their schedule. They're a tough out with their length and wonky math-up zone D that most teams don't see much of around here.

  7. Default Re: Atlantic Region

    Quote Originally Posted by IUPalum View Post
    IUP will give Ship its second straight loss.
    I think so too. Antonio Kellum and John Costello are the main men now and that’s a nice starting point but Ship’s lost so much of the talent that put this program on the map the last two years. They’re formidable still but not on the same level. I suspect their good start record wise has a good bit to do with the schedule.

  8. Default Re: Atlantic Region

    Ship is extremely well-coached and, as a result, is fundamentally sound and plays great defense which will keep Ship competitive. However, Ship's early schedule distort's Ship's record a bit. Ship's early schedule has Ship at home for 7 of its first 8 games against Virginian Union, Lincoln, Wilson, Wilmington, Chestnut Hill, Seton Hill and UPJ - not one serious contest excpet maybe UPJ. Ship's only away game before losing to Bowie was a win by 3 over CalU. So, Ship's first 8 games really provide no barometer for its battle on the road with IUP.

    My prediction is IUP by 15.

  9. #89

    Default Re: Atlantic Region

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrub View Post
    No love for the Western arm of the Serbian National Team down in Buckhannon? I think WV Wesleyan will continue to be a tough out. Their schedule has pitted them against some of their most difficult competition early on (losses to FSU, Shepherd, and WLU). And they have two quality PSAC wins from opening weekend. I suspect they'll be a team to add to your "Be on the Lookout" list once they get into the easier portion of their schedule. They're a tough out with their length and wonky math-up zone D that most teams don't see much of around here.
    That's a good nickname. I did overlook them due to the 4-4 record. WVW has two quality wins over West Chester and Kutztown. They have the odd loss to Ohio Valley. Four losses is a lot on Dec. 6 but isn't the end of the world. The question is can they go 17-4 down the stretch to stay at that key 8-loss line?

  10. #90

    Default Re: Atlantic Region

    I will try and update this every Monday. A few teams are getting close to being removed. Not to say they won't get back on eventually. These aren't in any particular 'standings' order but just show where the 'right now' top teams in the Atlantic stand.

    For conversation purposes I highlighted my 'Top 8' as of today. That last spot being a toss-up between Virginia State, Concord and Notre Dame.


    MEC

    Fairmont State (6-0, 8-2)
    West Liberty (5-1, 7-2)

    Concord (4-1, 8-2)
    Notre Dame (4-2, 7-3)
    Charleston (3-3, 7-3)
    Shepherd (3-3, 6-3)
    WVW (2-3, 4-4)

    PSAC

    IUP (3-0, 9-0)
    Shippensburg (2-1, 8-2)
    Mercyhurst (2-1, 6-1)
    East Stroudsburg (3-0, 6-2)
    West Chester (2-1, 5-4)
    Kutztown (1-2, 5-4)
    UPJ (2-1, 6-3)


    CIAA

    Chowan (1-0, 7-0)
    Shaw (1-0, 5-2)
    Virginia State (0-0, 5-3)

    Livingstone (0-0, 4-1)


    Edit: I forgot about UPJ. They do have wins over Kutztown and Virginia State.
    Last edited by IUPbigINDIANS; 12-10-2018 at 04:58 PM.

  11. #91

    Default Re: Atlantic Region

    District of Columbia 84

    Bowie State 80

  12. #92

    Default Re: Atlantic Region

    Quote Originally Posted by IUPbigINDIANS View Post
    I will try and update this every Monday. A few teams are getting close to being removed. Not to say they won't get back on eventually. These aren't in any particular 'standings' order but just show where the 'right now' top teams in the Atlantic stand.

    For conversation purposes I highlighted my 'Top 8' as of today. That last spot being a toss-up between Virginia State, Concord and Notre Dame.


    MEC

    Fairmont State (6-0, 8-2)
    West Liberty (5-1, 7-2)

    Concord (4-1, 8-2)
    Notre Dame (4-2, 7-3)
    Charleston (3-3, 7-3)
    Shepherd (3-3, 6-3)
    WVW (2-3, 4-4)

    PSAC

    IUP (3-0, 9-0)
    Shippensburg (2-1, 8-2)
    Mercyhurst (2-1, 6-1)
    East Stroudsburg (3-0, 6-2)
    West Chester (2-1, 5-4)
    Kutztown (1-2, 5-4)
    UPJ (2-1, 6-3)


    CIAA

    Chowan (1-0, 7-0)
    Shaw (1-0, 5-2)
    Virginia State (0-0, 5-3)

    Livingstone (0-0, 4-1)


    Edit: I forgot about UPJ. They do have wins over Kutztown and Virginia State.
    Granted it's VERY early. But the early performance indicators (Schnautza occasionally posts them here for the region, but right now he's got them for all teams on the general board) really love Mercyhurst. I suspect they'll fade as weeks go on, but it's interesting to note that those early performance indicators like Mercy above teams like WLU, Ship, ESU, Concord, etc.

  13. #93

    Default Re: Atlantic Region

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrub View Post
    Granted it's VERY early. But the early performance indicators (Schnautza occasionally posts them here for the region, but right now he's got them for all teams on the general board) really love Mercyhurst. I suspect they'll fade as weeks go on, but it's interesting to note that those early performance indicators like Mercy above teams like WLU, Ship, ESU, Concord, etc.
    Hurst has won 3 games by over 40 pts, including Bloom and Roberts Wesleyan, probably has to do with these odd scores

  14. #94

    Default Re: Atlantic Region

    Quote Originally Posted by ironmaniup View Post
    Hurst has won 3 games by over 40 pts, including Bloom and Roberts Wesleyan, probably has to do with these odd scores
    A huge part of those rankings are your opponents winning percentage and your opponents opponents' winning percentage.

    Mercyhurst has some wins against teams with good records -- RW, Daemen, etc. Only D2 games are factored so any D3 games (or D1) do not get calculated. For example, Slippery Rock is 3-5 but just 1-5 against D2 competition. They can beat up Ohio University Northern all they want and all it does is pump up player stats.

    His rankings, while sometimes seen as a bit subjective, are typically very accurate by the end of the season in regard to who is going dancing and who is not.


    The thing in basketball is nobody is going undefeated. Extremely rare. So, when you lose, just make sure it is to teams with good records and it won't crush you. You have to avoid the huge letdown game (like when IUP lost at Seton Hill) three years ago. Those are devastating -- particularly late in the season.

    Some other factors eventually get taken in to consideration: record against other regionally ranked teams (once ranked always ranked), road record, etc.


    One huge factor IUP has going for it in this 9-0 start is they've defeated teams that are going to win a ton of games. Concord, Virginia State, Le Moyne, Shippensburg, Kutztown, Bowie State, etc., -- they all four should win 20 games (or real close).

    Bowie State, at 4-6, has a deceiving record. They've played perhaps one of the toughest non-conference schedules in the country. They beat Shippensburg as a reference. Their record will improve dramatically once CIAA play gets in full gear.

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    Default Re: Atlantic Region

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrub View Post
    Granted it's VERY early. But the early performance indicators (Schnautza occasionally posts them here for the region, but right now he's got them for all teams on the general board) really love Mercyhurst. I suspect they'll fade as weeks go on, but it's interesting to note that those early performance indicators like Mercy above teams like WLU, Ship, ESU, Concord, etc.
    In terms of Mercyhurst, if the two teams have similar metrics and records, ESU has the current edge ranking-wise because of the head-to-head (which wasn't particularly close). As we get further into conference play, we'll see if Mercyhurst is for real.

  16. #96

    Default Re: Atlantic Region

    Quote Originally Posted by EastStroud13 View Post
    In terms of Mercyhurst, if the two teams have similar metrics and records, ESU has the current edge ranking-wise because of the head-to-head (which wasn't particularly close). As we get further into conference play, we'll see if Mercyhurst is for real.
    We'll learn about Mercyhurst real quick. The Lakers' next 5 games are brutal -- including Kutztown, at Shippensburg, Slippery Rock and IUP.

  17. #97
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    Default Re: Atlantic Region

    Quote Originally Posted by IUPbigINDIANS View Post
    A huge part of those rankings are your opponents winning percentage and your opponents opponents' winning percentage.

    Mercyhurst has some wins against teams with good records -- RW, Daemen, etc. Only D2 games are factored so any D3 games (or D1) do not get calculated. For example, Slippery Rock is 3-5 but just 1-5 against D2 competition. They can beat up Ohio University Northern all they want and all it does is pump up player stats.

    His rankings, while sometimes seen as a bit subjective, are typically very accurate by the end of the season in regard to who is going dancing and who is not.


    The thing in basketball is nobody is going undefeated. Extremely rare. So, when you lose, just make sure it is to teams with good records and it won't crush you. You have to avoid the huge letdown game (like when IUP lost at Seton Hill) three years ago. Those are devastating -- particularly late in the season.

    Some other factors eventually get taken in to consideration: record against other regionally ranked teams (once ranked always ranked), road record, etc.


    One huge factor IUP has going for it in this 9-0 start is they've defeated teams that are going to win a ton of games. Concord, Virginia State, Le Moyne, Shippensburg, Kutztown, Bowie State, etc., -- they all four should win 20 games (or real close).

    Bowie State, at 4-6, has a deceiving record. They've played perhaps one of the toughest non-conference schedules in the country. They beat Shippensburg as a reference. Their record will improve dramatically once CIAA play gets in full gear.
    Would be interesting to track what has more effect on your overall ranking, beating a bad team or losing to a good one?

    We talk about the SOS "bump" a team gets even if they lose to a good team but does that bump offset the PI and W/L% "hit" that is produced by a loss to a good team?

    I note that for PI, a team will be awarded anywhere from 0 Points (Home loss to a .000-.250 team) to 11 Points (Road loss to a .750+ team) for a loss while ANY win begins at 12 Points (Home win to a .000-.250 team) so for PI purposes, a team is ALWAYS better with a win...even to a bad team. Same thing with W/L %...Team A plays a .750+ team and loses to go 27-1 on the season while Team B plays a .250 team and wins to go 28-0...Team A's W/L % .964 while Team B's W/L % is 1.000.
    Last edited by boatcapt; 12-11-2018 at 08:55 AM.

  18. #98

    Default Re: Atlantic Region

    Quote Originally Posted by boatcapt View Post
    Would be interesting to track what has more effect on your overall ranking, beating a bad team or losing to a good one?

    We talk about the SOS "bump" a team gets even if they lose to a good team but does that bump offset the PI and W/L% hit that is produced by a loss to a good team as opposed to winning against a bad one?
    Nobody can answer that minus the people in the room on Selection Sunday. The 'human factor' is the great unknown in this 'formula' that is used.

    I still think it comes down to counting losses -- plain and simple.

    If you want to host, you better have between 0 and 4 losses (most years). If you want to make the Final 8 -- you better have no more than 8 losses (most years).

    At 9 losses you don't control anything.


    Your question I assume can be used in the WL loss to Kutztown. Does that 'loss' help more than had you 'won' against Clarion? I think the SOS becomes a big factor in settling ties more than anything (Virginia State hosting last year as an example).

    Generally I think the 'host' picks itself. The next 6 teams usually pick themselves. The last team selected usually comes down to all these forumla's, etc.

    But as we all know (all too well) ... the CIAA Tournament is ALWAYS the wild card in this. The 'favorite' never wins that tournament.

  19. #99
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    Default Re: Atlantic Region

    Quote Originally Posted by IUPbigINDIANS View Post
    Nobody can answer that minus the people in the room on Selection Sunday. The 'human factor' is the great unknown in this 'formula' that is used.

    I still think it comes down to counting losses -- plain and simple.

    If you want to host, you better have between 0 and 4 losses (most years). If you want to make the Final 8 -- you better have no more than 8 losses (most years).

    At 9 losses you don't control anything.


    Your question I assume can be used in the WL loss to Kutztown. Does that 'loss' help more than had you 'won' against Clarion? I think the SOS becomes a big factor in settling ties more than anything (Virginia State hosting last year as an example).

    Generally I think the 'host' picks itself. The next 6 teams usually pick themselves. The last team selected usually comes down to all these forumla's, etc.

    But as we all know (all too well) ... the CIAA Tournament is ALWAYS the wild card in this. The 'favorite' never wins that tournament.
    While yes, it relates to the WLU/Kutz game to open the season, question is still valid. In general for seeding purposes, what has more effect...beating a bad team or losing to a good one? If the goal is to host the region which I think increases your chances of winning the region wouldn't it be better to have more wins even to bad teams as opposed to a number of additional losses to good teams?

    As I've said before, losses have consequences. And I would add...even to good teams. Now a loss to a good team is mitigated somewhat by the SOS bump a team gets but on the whole, a loss always hurts more than it ever helps.

    Besides last season's seedings, do we have any other examples were the NCAA tried to "educate" teams on playing difficult schedules? As you point out, the "human factor" is the great unknown. Absent any other specific examples of the NCAA hammering a teams seeding to teach it a lesson, it could be that the committee just wanted to see the CIAA host the Regionals and this was their opportunity.
    Last edited by boatcapt; 12-11-2018 at 09:24 AM.

  20. #100

    Default Re: Atlantic Region

    Quote Originally Posted by boatcapt View Post
    While yes, it relates to the WLU/Kutz game to open the season, question is still valid. In general for seeding purposes, what has more effect...beating a bad team or losing to a good one? If the goal is to host the region which I think increases your chances of winning the region wouldn't it be better to have more wins even to bad teams as opposed to a number of additional losses to good teams?
    I suppose you could look at those cases where a team with a worse record is ranked above a team with a better record to find out the difference in SOS.

    Then again, playing better teams gives you the potential for a higher rating, that playing all cupcakes would not. You need more of a risk benefits analysis than a specific number, because you never really know the outcome (do you always bet with the odds ? ) . Plus, it is impossible to judge the impact on your team of playing better opponents. The argument is playing better gets you ready to play in the tournament. I think that is obvious to a degree - but hard to quantify.

    Then again, sports is for fun, and its always most fun to play against the best competition - in the end you have to beat the best anyway.

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