Page 36 of 38 FirstFirst ... 2632333435363738 LastLast
Results 701 to 720 of 755

Thread: Atlantic Region

  1. #701

    Default Re: Atlantic Region

    Quote Originally Posted by boatcapt View Post
    I think you can guess this most years before the season even begins. WLU, IUP, VA State are going to be the top 3...Fairmont and ESU in 4 and 5...and the bottom three some mish mash of NDC, WCU, Hurst and Ship. Baring a "wild card" winning one of the tourneys, pick some version of that before the season begins and you are probably going to be pretty close at the end!!!
    I think that it might be a bit arrogant to assume those three teams every year. None of us really know where things are slotting out until about mid January

  2. #702
    Join Date
    Sep 2002
    Location
    Erie, PA
    Posts
    4,462
    Rep Power
    22497

    Default Re: Atlantic Region

    Quote Originally Posted by boatcapt View Post
    IUP made it the year before last...VA State has made it 3 of the last 4.
    So IUP made it 2 of the last 4.

    Va St made it 3 of the last 4.

    WL every year. (Must be that weak schedule and conference)

    So to say that those three teams are in every year is false.

  3. #703
    Join Date
    Aug 2015
    Location
    Etters PA
    Posts
    1,267
    Rep Power
    60999

    Default Re: Atlantic Region

    Quote Originally Posted by IUPalum View Post
    So IUP made it 2 of the last 4.

    Va St made it 3 of the last 4.

    WL every year. (Must be that weak schedule and conference)

    So to say that those three teams are in every year is false.
    It's false on paper. It's not so false in theory. They are always there. Maybe they'll miss out once a graduation cycle, but they're generally always right there.

  4. #704

    Default Re: Atlantic Region

    Quote Originally Posted by jrshooter View Post
    It's false on paper. It's not so false in theory. They are always there. Maybe they'll miss out once a graduation cycle, but they're generally always right there.
    Follow the money.

    You'll quickly see a trend and common theme.

    Said for years and years D2 sports aren't an even playing field.

    The disparity from the top 4 teams to the bottom 4 teams in the PSAC is about the same as comparing the Yankees and Red Sox to the Pirates and Devil Rays.

  5. #705
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Central Florida
    Posts
    12,712
    Rep Power
    188879

    Default Re: Atlantic Region

    Quote Originally Posted by IUPalum View Post
    So IUP made it 2 of the last 4.

    Va St made it 3 of the last 4.

    WL every year. (Must be that weak schedule and conference)

    So to say that those three teams are in every year is false.
    Ok...Then pick other teams if you want.

  6. #706

    Default Re: Atlantic Region

    Totally irrelevant now, but since we followed them all year, here are the final Atlantic Region Performance Indicators (Top 15 including conference tournament results):


    Note: Quite the contrast from the 'official' bracket/seeding.

    1. IUP
    2. Virginia State
    3. West Liberty
    4. East Stroudsburg
    5. West Chester
    6. Mercyhurst
    7. Shippensburg
    8. Notre Dame
    9. Fairmont State
    10. Slippery Rock
    11. Concord
    12. Charleston
    13. Virginia Union
    14. Bowie State
    15. UPJ

  7. #707

    Default Re: Atlantic Region

    Quote Originally Posted by IUPbigINDIANS View Post
    Follow the money.

    You'll quickly see a trend and common theme.

    Said for years and years D2 sports aren't an even playing field.

    The disparity from the top 4 teams to the bottom 4 teams in the PSAC is about the same as comparing the Yankees and Red Sox to the Pirates and Devil Rays.
    Not to highjack your point but I’m amazed that the Pirates are still tied for 4th in World Series Chanpionships trailing only the Yankees, Cardinals and Red Sox.

  8. #708
    Join Date
    Sep 2002
    Location
    Erie, PA
    Posts
    4,462
    Rep Power
    22497

    Default Re: Atlantic Region

    Quote Originally Posted by boatcapt View Post
    Ok...Then pick other teams if you want.
    I'll always pick WL because they love playing cream puffs.

  9. #709

    Default Re: Atlantic Region

    Quote Originally Posted by IUPbigINDIANS View Post
    Totally irrelevant now, but since we followed them all year, here are the final Atlantic Region Performance Indicators (Top 15 including conference tournament results):


    Note: Quite the contrast from the 'official' bracket/seeding.

    1. IUP
    2. Virginia State
    3. West Liberty
    4. East Stroudsburg
    5. West Chester
    6. Mercyhurst
    7. Shippensburg
    8. Notre Dame
    9. Fairmont State
    10. Slippery Rock
    11. Concord
    12. Charleston
    13. Virginia Union
    14. Bowie State
    15. UPJ
    Not that many listen to anything that I say, but I have heard that in several regions, the committee can slot teams in different spots to avoid conference matchups. For instance, WL might've been the 2 seed outright, but in theory VSU could've been the 2 and they bumped WL up a line to avoid a conference game in the 1st round. Or conversely, ND could've been a different number and they were bumped down. I know that this is done, but it might provide some clarity as to why the PI is a little different than the actual bracket.

  10. #710
    Join Date
    Mar 2018
    Posts
    188
    Rep Power
    2334

    Default Re: Atlantic Region

    IUP-Fairmont
    WL-WCU
    VSU-ESU
    Hurst-NDC

    Done and done. Of course, this would mean drastically changing the committee's opinion of Fairmont.

  11. #711

    Default Re: Atlantic Region

    Quote Originally Posted by EastStroud13 View Post
    IUP-Fairmont
    WL-WCU
    VSU-ESU
    Hurst-NDC

    Done and done. Of course, this would mean drastically changing the committee's opinion of Fairmont.
    Aside from the Fairmont love fest ... Ship would have beat them by double digits head-to-head.

    Not that it matters now ...

    The FSU 5-seed is just baffling ... considering ND beat them 2 out of 3 and ND won the MEC title.

    Who knows. Maybe they come up here and wreck havoc.

    They have a real tough assignment. Thing with Mercyhurst is they don't change no matter who they play. They make other teams change to that triangle and two. Big advantage against anybody let alone a team like FSU that's never seen it.

    FSU has to have patience because Mercyhurst will annoy and agitate the heck out of them.

    Fairmont is used to seeing 'bone-crushing' defense so it shouldn't be a big deal, .... right?

  12. #712
    Join Date
    Sep 2002
    Location
    Erie, PA
    Posts
    4,462
    Rep Power
    22497

    Default Re: Atlantic Region

    Quote Originally Posted by IUPbigINDIANS View Post

    Fairmont is used to seeing 'bone-crushing' defense so it shouldn't be a big deal, .... right?
    I see what you did there! hahaha

  13. #713
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Central Florida
    Posts
    12,712
    Rep Power
    188879

    Default Re: Atlantic Region

    I've discovered the criteria that the committee uses for most of it's selection and seedings. It's not PI...It's not overall W/L...It's not record vs ranked opponents. It IS W/L vs In Region Opponents. This criteria got seven of the eight selections correct AND got them ranked in the right slot in six of eight. Here how the region stacked up in W/L vs In Region Opponents:

    1. IUP 93.33%
    2. WLU 86.67%
    3. VA State 85.71%
    4. Hurst 75.86%
    5. Ship 75.86%
    6. NDC 75.86%
    7. ESU 74.07%
    8. Fairmont 73.33%

    9. WCU 72.41%
    10. Charleston 67.86%

    Clearly Ship should have been in with WCU sitting at home right now.
    Last edited by boatcapt; 03-14-2019 at 08:22 AM.

  14. Default Re: Atlantic Region

    Quote Originally Posted by boatcapt View Post
    I've discovered the criteria that the committee uses for most of it's selection and seedings. It's not PI...It's not overall W/L...It's not record vs ranked opponents. It IS W/L vs In Region Opponents. This criteria got seven of the eight selections correct AND got them ranked in the right slot in six of eight. Here how the region stacked up in W/L vs In Region Opponents:

    1. IUP 93.33%
    2. WLU 86.67%
    3. VA State 85.71%
    4. Hurst 75.86%
    5. Ship 75.86%
    6. NDC 75.86%
    7. ESU 74.07%
    8. Fairmont 73.33%

    9. WCU 72.41%
    10. Charleston 67.86%

    Clearly Ship should have been in with WCU sitting at home right now.
    You may be correct.
    But since I got a call from Old Scratch :-) and he asked me to advocate for him, wouldn't educated guesses by fans who follow this region's teams do just as well in picking 7 out of 8 as well as ranking 6 out of 8 correctly using their own personal heuristics?

  15. #715
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Central Florida
    Posts
    12,712
    Rep Power
    188879

    Default Re: Atlantic Region

    Quote Originally Posted by Columbuseer View Post
    You may be correct.
    But since I got a call from Old Scratch :-) and he asked me to advocate for him, wouldn't educated guesses by fans who follow this region's teams do just as well in picking 7 out of 8 as well as ranking 6 out of 8 correctly using their own personal heuristics?
    Hahahaha! Yes, yes it would!!!

    I just find it funny that people cleave to the notion that their is some particular criteria that the committee uses over all others for their selection and seeding. We are told with great authority that THIS particular criteria has been 100% accurate for the last two years so that PROVES that that is the criteria the committee uses. Usually the very next year after the grandeous statement of accuracy, the criteria is proven to be not such a great predictor!

    I came to the conclusion long ago that the whole selection process is completely subjective with each committee member using what ever criteria he/she wants to validate the way they want to vote. If they want to have WCU in, there's probably a criteria that says they should be it...If they want to keep Ship out, there's probably a criteria that let's them vote that way.

    Now that said, just because I believe the process is totally subjective doesn't mean I believe that is the correct and most valid way of selecting playoff teams. I still believe that a totally objective process that ranks each team against the same exact criteria (formula) each year is the most fair to all teams. Any time you have a subjective system like we have you introduce personal prejudices and opinions into the process and that by definition is not a fair, level playing field for all teams.
    Last edited by boatcapt; 03-14-2019 at 08:50 AM.

  16. Default Re: Atlantic Region

    Maybe someone can come up with a formula, but I would guess it would be complex. Here are some heuristics that some folks might use ( I am not saying they are the correct ones, but are just examples):
    1) Goal is to get the teams who are playing the best at the end of the season, but not to the exclusion of their season-long performance.
    2) Losses due to injury to key players are not as damaging if that player is back at full strength now.
    3) Losses to weak teams late in the season are more damaging
    4) Victories against strong opponents are a plus, especially in other conferences because it provides a frame of reference (with a lot of caveats of course)
    5) Close losses in tournament to high seeds is not as damaging, especially if the winning team is peaking in performance (i.e., Notre Dame in MEC tourney)
    etc.
    etc.

    I would probably take an AI program to do a better job than human heuristics and judgment. Not sure a pure math formula could do it.

  17. #717
    Join Date
    Mar 2018
    Posts
    188
    Rep Power
    2334

    Default Re: Atlantic Region

    That criteria STILL doesn't explain Fairmont State.

    As for Ship, I'm guessing the "mystery criteria" is head-to-head. It's not really controversial at all to have them out and WCU in.

  18. Default Re: Atlantic Region

    Quote Originally Posted by boatcapt View Post
    Hahahaha! Yes, yes it would!!!

    I just find it funny that people cleave to the notion that their is some particular criteria that the committee uses over all others for their selection and seeding. We are told with great authority that THIS particular criteria has been 100% accurate for the last two years so that PROVES that that is the criteria the committee uses. Usually the very next year after the grandeous statement of accuracy, the criteria is proven to be not such a great predictor!

    I came to the conclusion long ago that the whole selection process is completely subjective with each committee member using what ever criteria he/she wants to validate the way they want to vote. If they want to have WCU in, there's probably a criteria that says they should be it...If they want to keep Ship out, there's probably a criteria that let's them vote that way.

    Now that said, just because I believe the process is totally subjective doesn't mean I believe that is the correct and most valid way of selecting playoff teams. I still believe that a totally objective process that ranks each team against the same exact criteria (formula) each year is the most fair to all teams. Any time you have a subjective system like we have you introduce personal prejudices and opinions into the process and that by definition is not a fair, level playing field for all teams.
    I don’t ever recall anyone claiming there is one criteria that’s used to select the field. It’s the math with a little human element (aka: the eye test) thrown in. The ratio of math to human probably differs year to year and committee by committee which makes the system imperfect but the right teams pretty much always get in. In the D2 setup of geographic regions by the time the season plays out you rarely have more than one spot in the top 8 that’s even debatable. Seeding will always be tricky. There is no perfect formula for that when you’re talking about comparing teams in three conferences that all have years where they are strong and years where they aren’t.

  19. #719
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Central Florida
    Posts
    12,712
    Rep Power
    188879

    Default Re: Atlantic Region

    Quote Originally Posted by Columbuseer View Post
    Maybe someone can come up with a formula, but I would guess it would be complex. Here are some heuristics that some folks might use ( I am not saying they are the correct ones, but are just examples):
    1) Goal is to get the teams who are playing the best at the end of the season, but not to the exclusion of their season-long performance.
    2) Losses due to injury to key players are not as damaging if that player is back at full strength now.
    3) Losses to weak teams late in the season are more damaging
    4) Victories against strong opponents are a plus, especially in other conferences because it provides a frame of reference (with a lot of caveats of course)
    5) Close losses in tournament to high seeds is not as damaging, especially if the winning team is peaking in performance (i.e., Notre Dame in MEC tourney)
    etc.
    etc.

    I would probably take an AI program to do a better job than human heuristics and judgment. Not sure a pure math formula could do it.
    I disagree with the need for complexity. While I think PI has some obvious flaws, at least it is consistent and easily applied. Formula using PI, along with something that takes margin of victory AND opponent total points into account and a small "kicker" for W/L over the last 10 games would probably get you pretty close to picking the 8 best teams from a region.

    The thing I like in an objective formula based system is the absolute fairness of it. Every team, good and bad...past champion or past door mat would be rated against the same exact formula that is devoid of personal opinion. It would also give coaches a target to shoot at when they are preparing their schedule each year. As it stands right now, scheduling is a total crap shoot...Is it more important to get W's or is it more important to perhaps take a loss to a good team? Is it better to play at home or on the road? Should I schedule a tough game against a top tier but out of region team at our house or would it be better to schedule a bad but in-region team at their house?? Right now with the apparently unequally applied criteria, I would imagine coaches throw their hands up and say 'what ever" more times than we might care to admit.

  20. #720
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Central Florida
    Posts
    12,712
    Rep Power
    188879

    Default Re: Atlantic Region

    Quote Originally Posted by Chuck Norris View Post
    I don’t ever recall anyone claiming there is one criteria that’s used to select the field. It’s the math with a little human element (aka: the eye test) thrown in. The ratio of math to human probably differs year to year and committee by committee which makes the system imperfect but the right teams pretty much always get in. In the D2 setup of geographic regions by the time the season plays out you rarely have more than one spot in the top 8 that’s even debatable. Seeding will always be tricky. There is no perfect formula for that when you’re talking about comparing teams in three conferences that all have years where they are strong and years where they aren’t.
    But if you have the "human element" thrown in, you really don't have a fair system. I agree there is no perfect formula but at least if you have a set formula that doesn't differ year to year and that is applied equally to all teams with out regard for intentional or unintentional prejudice or opinion, you at least level the playing field for all AND you give coaches a set standard to shoot at.

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •