Page 12 of 20 FirstFirst ... 28910111213141516 ... LastLast
Results 221 to 240 of 392

Thread: Atlantic Region

  1. #221
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Central Florida
    Posts
    12,463
    Contribute to D2
    Rep Power
    187222

    Default Re: Atlantic Region

    Quote Originally Posted by IUPbigINDIANS View Post
    End of the day you are what your record says. That SOS strength did Joe no favors 2 of the past 3 years.

    So long as that human factor still exists .....

    That said those Performance Indicators he outs together are typically very accurate when it comes to which 8 get invited to dance.
    Not arguing with how accurate they are in predicting the final 8...my argument is are they REALLY an accurate indication of the 8 best teams in DII nation? A person (or group of people) can design a system that ranks and stacks teams based on any number of variables, and if the selection committee follows that ranking system, then it's going to be "accurate" even if it is flawed.

    I could come up with a "ranking indicator" based on the number of letters in the name of each opponent a team has played. If the NCAA followed it and made playoff selections based on it, I could argue that it was an accurate indicator for playoff selection. But that wouldn't mean it was an accurate indicator of actual performance even if it produced the eventual champion.

    I don't follow PI much (really, I DON'T!!). But I seem to remember that during tourney time, they are updated with tourney game results. If that is true, as winning teams progress through the rounds, their PI is going to go up because they are playing and beating teams with good records. Natural effect will be that the final 8 will have a much higher PI than they did at the end of the season and probably much higher that any of the teams that didn't progress to the E8. I could be wrong on this and the PI might not be updated after the regular season but I seem to remember that it IS updated during the NCAA tourney.
    Last edited by boatcapt; 01-02-2019 at 10:34 AM.

  2. #222
    Join Date
    Sep 2014
    Location
    Indiana, Pa.
    Posts
    9,177
    Rep Power
    112189

    Default Re: Atlantic Region

    Quote Originally Posted by boatcapt View Post
    Not arguing with how accurate they are in predicting the final 8...my argument is are they REALLY an accurate indication of the 8 best teams in DII nation? A person (or group of people) can design a system that ranks and stacks teams based on any number of variables, and if the selection committee follows that ranking system, then it's going to be "accurate" even if it is flawed.

    I could come up with a "ranking indicator" based on the number of letters in the name of each opponent a team has played. If the NCAA followed it and made playoff selections based on it, I could argue that it was an accurate indicator for playoff selection. But that wouldn't mean it was an accurate indicator of actual performance even if it produced the eventual champion.

    The guy who put them together says they aren't a great tool for ranking the nation as there are too few region vs region games. But, inside the region, they seem to work well.

  3. #223
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Central Florida
    Posts
    12,463
    Rep Power
    187222

    Default Re: Atlantic Region

    Quote Originally Posted by IUPbigINDIANS View Post
    The guy who put them together says they aren't a great tool for ranking the nation as there are too few region vs region games. But, inside the region, they seem to work well.
    I don't think PI is a bad tool but it is limited. If the selection committees are using it in exclusion of the other selection criteria, then they are not fulfilling what they are supposed to be doing.

    Perfect world, my selection "formula" would be:

    1/3 PI + 1/3 DII W/L + 1/3 SOS

    Each of these have a particular formula that is applied to all teams equally so it removes the subjectivity that is rampant in the current "secret" selection process.

    Such an objective criteria will permit DII coaches to build their schedules intelligently as they will be able to compare the value of beating a bad team vs possibly losing to a good team. I think it will also favor coaches that build well rounded winning programs as coaches will no longer receive any subjective benefit from selectors who "like" high powered offenses or body rocking defense.

    But it will never happen!!

  4. #224

    Default Re: Atlantic Region

    Lincoln (PA) beat Morgan State tonight 77-75

  5. #225
    Join Date
    Sep 2014
    Location
    Indiana, Pa.
    Posts
    9,177
    Rep Power
    112189

    Default Re: Atlantic Region

    Chowan beat up Shaw tonight in CIAA action.

    That's still just one loss for Chowan.

    Certainly may be two qualified teams from that conference this year in the Final 8 with them and Virginia State.

    Virginia State has 3 losses by 4 total points ... that close to 11-0.

    Then, of course, neither will win the CIAA Tournament and cause total chaos. Shaw or Bowie will get red hot in March. Lol. Every year.

  6. #226
    Join Date
    Sep 2002
    Location
    Erie, PA
    Posts
    4,194
    Rep Power
    22341

    Default Re: Atlantic Region

    Quote Originally Posted by boatcapt View Post
    I don't think PI is a bad tool but it is limited. If the selection committees are using it in exclusion of the other selection criteria, then they are not fulfilling what they are supposed to be doing.

    Perfect world, my selection "formula" would be:

    1/3 PI + 1/3 DII W/L + 1/3 SOS

    Each of these have a particular formula that is applied to all teams equally so it removes the subjectivity that is rampant in the current "secret" selection process.

    Such an objective criteria will permit DII coaches to build their schedules intelligently as they will be able to compare the value of beating a bad team vs possibly losing to a good team. I think it will also favor coaches that build well rounded winning programs as coaches will no longer receive any subjective benefit from selectors who "like" high powered offenses or body rocking defense.

    But it will never happen!!
    So by your formula, WL would be a middle seed every year then.

  7. #227
    Join Date
    Sep 2002
    Location
    Erie, PA
    Posts
    4,194
    Rep Power
    22341

    Default Re: Atlantic Region

    Quote Originally Posted by IUPbigINDIANS View Post
    Chowan beat up Shaw tonight in CIAA action.

    That's still just one loss for Chowan.

    Certainly may be two qualified teams from that conference this year in the Final 8 with them and Virginia State.

    Virginia State has 3 losses by 4 total points ... that close to 11-0.

    Then, of course, neither will win the CIAA Tournament and cause total chaos. Shaw or Bowie will get red hot in March. Lol. Every year.
    So basically Shaw is Hinton and nobody! Can we lure him to the winning team?

    Looking at it, the Atlantic region is wide open this year. A lot of tough teams beating each other up.

    I wasn't a fan of VSU when they played their two games at IUP but they are finding ways to win since.

  8. #228
    Join Date
    Aug 2015
    Location
    Etters PA
    Posts
    1,197
    Rep Power
    60964

    Default Re: Atlantic Region

    Shepherd knocked off Ship 74-67 on Wednesday night, not a good loss for the Raiders. Shot poorly all night (30 percent), but still caught the Rams around the 15-minute mark of the second half before faltering at the end. Shepherd showed some nice penetration. Raiders committed just two turnovers all night -- and Shepherd cashed in with 3-pointers off each.

    Big one coming at Heiges on Saturday afternoon as East Stroudsburg comes to town. If anyone hasn't noticed, ESU has a 19-game winning streak in PSAC play.

  9. #229
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Central Florida
    Posts
    12,463
    Rep Power
    187222

    Default Re: Atlantic Region

    Quote Originally Posted by IUPalum View Post
    So by your formula, WL would be a middle seed every year then.
    Perhaps...but at least they would make the playoffs every year! I'd also point out that typically WLU's W/L % is higher than anyone in the region, even so even if their SOS was a bit lower I would think they would stand a better than average chance of being the 1 to 3 seed.

  10. #230
    Join Date
    Sep 2014
    Location
    Indiana, Pa.
    Posts
    9,177
    Rep Power
    112189

    Default Re: Atlantic Region

    Quote Originally Posted by jrshooter View Post
    Shepherd knocked off Ship 74-67 on Wednesday night, not a good loss for the Raiders. Shot poorly all night (30 percent), but still caught the Rams around the 15-minute mark of the second half before faltering at the end. Shepherd showed some nice penetration. Raiders committed just two turnovers all night -- and Shepherd cashed in with 3-pointers off each.

    Big one coming at Heiges on Saturday afternoon as East Stroudsburg comes to town. If anyone hasn't noticed, ESU has a 19-game winning streak in PSAC play.

    Shepherd is going to make an already crowded East even more crowded next year. Due to this it will be interesting to see how EAST teams schedule the non-conference.

    That Ship vs ESU game will be great. Both coming off poor performances. Somebody is taking another loss. Real big game. The East may just beat each other up so much this winter they may knock out some good teams. I still think the PSAC is only getting three teams invited to the dance.

  11. #231
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Central Florida
    Posts
    12,463
    Rep Power
    187222

    Default Re: Atlantic Region

    Quote Originally Posted by IUPbigINDIANS View Post
    Shepherd is going to make an already crowded East even more crowded next year. Due to this it will be interesting to see how EAST teams schedule the non-conference.

    That Ship vs ESU game will be great. Both coming off poor performances. Somebody is taking another loss. Real big game. The East may just beat each other up so much this winter they may knock out some good teams. I still think the PSAC is only getting three teams invited to the dance.
    In the PSAC, Shepherd will be one of the top tier basketball teams.

  12. #232
    Join Date
    Sep 2014
    Location
    Indiana, Pa.
    Posts
    9,177
    Rep Power
    112189

    Default Re: Atlantic Region

    Quote Originally Posted by boatcapt View Post
    In the PSAC, Shepherd will be one of the top tier basketball teams.
    Ship just shot bad.

  13. #233
    Join Date
    Aug 2015
    Location
    Etters PA
    Posts
    1,197
    Rep Power
    60964

    Default Re: Atlantic Region

    Quote Originally Posted by boatcapt View Post
    In the PSAC, Shepherd will be one of the top tier basketball teams.
    Agreed. Good recruiting resume in the talent-rich Martinsburg area plus the DC corridor.

    Quote Originally Posted by IUPbigINDIANS View Post
    Ship just shot bad.
    You betcha. When Manny Span is one of their top scorers for the night, you can be sure that the threes were not falling.
    Last edited by jrshooter; 01-04-2019 at 10:36 AM.

  14. #234
    Join Date
    Sep 2014
    Location
    Indiana, Pa.
    Posts
    9,177
    Rep Power
    112189

    Default Re: Atlantic Region

    Shepherd is a great fit in football and men's basketball. Their women's basketball program is pretty average.

    The EAST already has 5 strong teams. They'll make No. 6 next year. The division schedule will be brutal.

  15. #235
    Join Date
    Sep 2002
    Location
    Erie, PA
    Posts
    4,194
    Rep Power
    22341

    Default Re: Atlantic Region

    Quote Originally Posted by boatcapt View Post
    Perhaps...but at least they would make the playoffs every year! I'd also point out that typically WLU's W/L % is higher than anyone in the region, even so even if their SOS was a bit lower I would think they would stand a better than average chance of being the 1 to 3 seed.
    So you're saying that since they beat a bunch of cream puffs and have 1 loss less than a team that ran a gauntlet they would be ranked higher?

  16. #236
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Central Florida
    Posts
    12,463
    Rep Power
    187222

    Default Re: Atlantic Region

    Quote Originally Posted by IUPalum View Post
    So you're saying that since they beat a bunch of cream puffs and have 1 loss less than a team that ran a gauntlet they would be ranked higher?
    Wouldn't really call playing Fairmont and WJU twice and King as cream puffs but I guess you would. WLU had a winning % of .897 and VA State had a .862 for a difference of .035. If the PI and SOS was enough to overcome the delta, then VA State should be ranked higher...if it was not enough, they should be ranked lower. Giving the selection committee the ability to "vote their heart," even when the numbers say otherwise, is not appropriate.
    Last edited by boatcapt; 01-04-2019 at 10:21 AM.

  17. #237
    Join Date
    Sep 2014
    Location
    Indiana, Pa.
    Posts
    9,177
    Rep Power
    112189

    Default Re: Atlantic Region

    Quote Originally Posted by boatcapt View Post
    WLU had a winning % of .897 and VA State had a .862 for a difference of .035. If the PI and SOS was enough to overcome the delta, then VA State should be ranked higher...if it was not enough, they should be ranked lower. Giving the selection committee the ability to "vote their heart," even when the numbers say otherwise, is not appropriate.
    If you are discussing last year, VSU had a tremendous advantage in SOS. WL's SOS was historically bad last year (worst by far of all NCAA Atlantic teams). It showed in Round 1.

    They got it right letting VSU host last year.

  18. #238
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Central Florida
    Posts
    12,463
    Rep Power
    187222

    Default Re: Atlantic Region

    Quote Originally Posted by IUPbigINDIANS View Post
    If you are discussing last year, VSU had a tremendous advantage in SOS. WL's SOS was historically bad last year (worst by far of all NCAA Atlantic teams). It showed in Round 1.

    They got it right letting VSU host last year.
    People talk about WLU's bad SOS last year but I don't recall ever seeing it. I would imagine it was published somewhere but I was not able to find it. Can you point me at the web site were this is kept?

  19. #239
    Join Date
    Sep 2014
    Location
    Indiana, Pa.
    Posts
    9,177
    Rep Power
    112189

    Default Re: Atlantic Region

    Regional Update


    PSAC

    IUP (5-0, 12-0)
    Mercyhurst (3-2, 8-2)
    UPJ (4-1, 9-3)
    East Stroudsburg (6-0, 9-3)
    Shippensburg (5-1, 11-3)

    MEC

    Fairmont State (6-0, 8-3)
    Concord (5-1, 9-2)
    West Liberty (5-1, 9-2)
    Notre Dame (4-2, 8-3)

    CIAA

    Chowan (3-0, 9-1)
    Virginia State (2-0, 9-3)



    In the mix:

    Lincoln (4-0, 10-4)
    Charleston (3-3, 7-4)
    Shepherd (3-3, 7-4)
    Slippery Rock (4-1, 7-5)
    West Chester (4-2, 7-5)
    Millersville (3-2, 7-5)

  20. #240
    Join Date
    Sep 2014
    Location
    Indiana, Pa.
    Posts
    9,177
    Rep Power
    112189

    Default Re: Atlantic Region

    Here's my guess at the Top 10 as of today:

    1. IUP - Has run a gauntlet unscathed -- home and away -- including wins over Virginia State, Concord, Le Moyne, Shippensburg and Fairmont State
    2. West Liberty - Win over ND bumps Hilltoppers ahead of Concord ... hosts FSU in rematch
    3. Concord - We're about to find out if they are contenders or pretenders. Four games ahead with WL and FSU.
    4. Mercyhurst - Solid resume including win over Daemen
    5. Chowan - May be better than many thought
    6. Virginia State - A step back from last year but not much ... has lost three nail-biters
    7. Shippensburg - Tough schedule looms
    8. UPJ - Dangerous team. Josh Wise is the best player in the Atlantic nobody talks about.
    9. Notre Dame - Hasn't played since Dec. 15. Home blowout loss to Roberts Wesleyan bumps them down.
    10. East Stroudsburg - Odd losses to three teams under .500 including a now 2-9 Saint Augustine's.

Page 12 of 20 FirstFirst ... 28910111213141516 ... LastLast

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •