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Thread: NSIC Pick'Em Week #11 - Chat

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    Default NSIC Pick'Em Week #11 - Chat

    So here it is the last week of the regular season already. It went by way too fast. My picks for last week were abysmal, the only comfort being they were abysmal for most everyone. This week I only see two games that are a little up in the air (without an upset occurring.)

    Upper Iowa at Minnesota State-Mankato - Mankato is the #1 team in the nation. As we've repeatedly stated, UIU this season is Jeckyll and Hyde. However, I don't think either Jeckyll or Hyde will be enough to beat Mankato at home.

    Wayne State at Sioux Falls - Last weekend the Coo arguably gave Mankato their toughest game of the season, and as Witt said showed that they are likely much better than their record would indicate. Wayne also played a pretty good game against UIU. USF is down their top two wide receivers, which means they'll probably rely even more heavily on their heavy ground attack. Thankfully for them, Wayne has a slightly below middle of the pack run defense. However, knowing the USF will be a bit less potent through the air might make them sell out a bit more against the run. In addition, Watson needs 172 yards to break the NSIC single season rushing record and that may mean he gets the ball a little more often in the hopes he can reach that goal. I always think of Wayne as a scrappy team that can suprise people at times, so I'm not expecting the Wildcats to roll over. However, I do think that the Cougars win at home on Senior Day.

    Minot State at Bemidji State - Bemidji lost last weekend to a team that probably wasn't quite as good as them. I think they vent some frustrations in this weekend's Beaver Battle.

    Concordia-St. Paul at Winona State - Both these teams wrecked my picks last weekend. It didn't really surprise me that Winona won as I figured their game against Augie could go either way. It did surprise me that the Golden Bears knocked off SMSU, as CSP hasn't been playing as well recently. That being said, Winona is also a team that I think has played below their potential this season. But I don't think they're going to struggle too hard this weekend and they'll finish the season with a win and possibly a trip to the MWB.

    Northern State at Minnesota-Duluth - Duluth has had a couple of weeks to rest their starters and give their backups some valuable playing time. Northern hasn't had that luxury. Few teams beat the Bulldogs at home and I don't think the Wolves are going to change that statistic this weekend.

    Mary at Minnesota-Crookston - This is the first of my "up in the air" games. What a tough year for Mary. Before the season started I didn't think that at this point in the season they would be sitting winless. Even less likely would I have thought that they would be considered the underdog against Crookston. Both of these teams have had a couple games where they've played competitively, but a lot more games where they haven't. Mary will be fighting to not get shut out this season. Crookston will be fighting to have their first two-win season in a long time. I'm not sure if this has the makings of a really good game or a really bad game, but I think Crookston will have just enough more ability to win this game at home.

    St. Cloud State at Minnesota State-Moorhead - This is the other game I think could go either way. Both teams are sitting with a 7-3 record. I've watched both teams play this season and in the games I saw St. Cloud was clearly the better team. Perhaps I saw the Huskies on a particularly good day and the Dragons on a bad day? Could be. However I think St. Cloud is a much more physical team and that should allow them just enough edge to get a win on the road.

    Augustana at Southwest Minnesota State - Before last week SMSU seemed to be putting some things together, then they lost to a Concordia team that I thought they easily should have won against. Augie also lost, but to a much better Winona team. I think the Augie air attack is a really bad matchup for SMSU's passing defense, which will probably spell a long day for the Mustangs.

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    Default Re: NSIC Pick'Em Week #11 - Chat

    I would call SCSU at Moorhead the game of the week. It seems to have the most riding on it. The next most interesting game is to see if Mary can win a game this season or UMC can win their second.

    You never know what kind of team will show up for the last week. Some teams want to be done and mail it in. Others still have something to prove. Either way- didn't the season seem to fly by?

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    Default Re: NSIC Pick'Em Week #11 - Chat

    Upper Iowa at Minnesota State-Mankato: Going to follow the theory that until somebody beats Mankato I am not going to bet against them. As much fun as it is to check the score after a UIU game because the score may not be what you guessed, this game won’t be it. MSU Mankato leads the nation in Team Total Sacks, while UIU is mid the pack in the nation with 21 sacks allowed, I feel that number is only going to increase this week. Mavericks KR Nissen has taken one to the house this year on kickoff, If and when the peacocks score, look for an explosive return by him. MSUM (-13)

    Wayne State at Sioux Falls: What a season for Watson, On the verge of the breaking the single season NSIC rushing record, leads the nation in rushing yards, and is 5th in all-purpose yards in the nation. Sioux Falls is a much better team than their record indicates after watching the highlights from the game last week playing very tough against the mavericks. Not sure the margin of victory, but I am taking the Coo to finish strong at home and beat WSC. USF (-6)

    Minot State at Bemidji State: Bemidji State really let me down last week, shocked to say the least. Although, I think they will bounce back against the team that I believe is the worst in the conference. They have only thrown two interceptions this year, and are 2nd best in the nation while picking off an astonishing 18 balls. Bemidji state is a very strong team, I have them winning big at home. BSU (-20)

    Concordia-St. Paul at Winona State: The warriors proved me wrong last week against Augustana. WSUs RB Roebuck is an outstanding player and is going to cause problems for the CSP rush defense. CSP runs on first down about 75% of the time and about 60% of the time on second down, solely because Mckinzey does not have a strong or accurate arm at all, only completing two passes when they played UMC, I see this playing right into the strengths of WSU defense. Winona is tied for 2nd in the nation with 5 defensive touchdowns, look for another one this weekend. WSU (-9)

    Northern State at Minnesota-Duluth: I respect NSU, so I’m not going to simply write easy pick and move along. NSU QB Trautman impressed me last weekend and has some really good passing stats on the season. Offense looks good with an even spread of 10, 11, and 12 personnel. But… Duluth is undefeated and marched right through UMC and UMary with a combined score of 118-7. They are also still carrying the best Total Defense in the nation, and they are playing at home. I have Duluth as the winner. UMD (-20)

    Mary at Minnesota-Crookston: Excited about this game to say the least. UMary played Duluth very well, only being 0-26 at half compared to UMC 0-56 at half. Not impressed with Mary’s quarterback Hoekstra, he is a freshman who isn’t the most athletic nor accurate. Mary is 156th in the nation in 3rd down conversion carrying a .266 and 131st in 4th down conversion carrying a .333. Not the best to say the least. The Crookston defense has been getting better almost every single week, although the score may not always indicate such. Going to be a good one, going to be about 20 degrees and snowing at kickoff. UMC (-6)

    St. Cloud State at Minnesota State-Moorhead: Very hard game to pick and is my game of the week. Moorhead WR Richter is 10th in the nation in receiving yards and I think he has looked great this year, sure hands and crisp routes. This is going to be a close game which would usually give the edge to SCSU as their kicker is top twenty in the nation with a .789 field goal percentage. The dragons have also only thrown 3 INTs this year which is the 4th best in the nation. Moorhead gets the natural bump for being at home. MSUM (-2)

    Augustana at Southwest Minnesota State: This one is going to be a shootout. AU Saddler is 5th in the nation in pass yards and SMSU Gimbel is right behind him at 6th. Going to be a ton of fun to watch these guys light it up head to head. SMSU is slightly more predictable as they are in 11 personell 90% of the time and while lining up in Doubles are passing about 70% of the time. Overall I believe Augie is the better team having watched both in multiple games. AU (-6)

    Have a great week everybody.

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    Default Re: NSIC Pick'Em Week #11 - Chat

    Awesome anaylsis CrookstonsFinest! Very detailed.

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    Default Re: NSIC Pick'Em Week #11 - Chat

    against the team that I believe is the worst in the conference.

    If you look at their roster, they're also the youngest team and start the youngest group in the conference. All new coaches brought in 2 seasons ago are experienced, but are workin' with all new faces. I believe their recruits will make a difference in the next few years.

    Just like I hope Crookston and Mary improve. I think parity is paramount to the survival of any conference. It just takes time.

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    Default Re: NSIC Pick'Em Week #11 - Chat

    The Annual Beaver Bowl is this week - I've got Green beating Red.

    There's my "hot take" for the week. Carry on.

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    Default Re: NSIC Pick'Em Week #11 - Chat

    2018, Week 11,
    For some it’s hell, for some it’s heaven.
    .
    As fans, we want to care about all these games,
    And several get an ‘A’ grade letter.
    But with the year some have had, they’re ready now
    To say that next year will be better.

    Mankato and Duluth hope to cruise
    Neither one had better lose.
    Playoffs should mean a lot of Texas
    If an upset this week doesn’t wreck this.

    Some are just playing out their season
    Pride is their only driving reason.
    Pre-D1 Augustana at Southwest State,
    Wayne, America has a Sioux Falls date.
    Winona and the Bears end their trauma
    (the Warriors came close to a bowl-a-rama)
    But their year of hopes went off the track,
    Too bad none could sustain consistent attacks.

    In the North, we see the Snow Bowl cometh,
    Two teams young, their years not quite done with.
    Some see this fight about finishing last
    I think that’s sad, these teams have class.
    When Mary visits Crookston for this icy contest.
    The loser isn’t a loser, they’ll just be “least best.”
    For our red and green Beaver Bowl ’18,
    The shores of Lake Bemidji will be the host.
    We’ll follow the game if people’s fingers
    Don’t freeze too much to post.

    But it’s Mineral Water in our conference veins,
    That makes this week exciting.
    Our Huskies and Dragons play a relevant game,
    (OK, that’s the weirdest thing I’m writing).
    For a genuine bowl spot they are battling
    You’d thing that’s why we’d watch this.
    In fact, it’s because one team will tally 55,
    But the winner will put up 56.

    Thanks to all teams for a stellar season,
    One that we’ll surely all remember.
    As maybe the year Double Nickels gets to have
    A meaningful game in December.

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    Default Re: NSIC Pick'Em Week #11 - Chat

    Quote Originally Posted by Quentin44 View Post
    2018, Week 11,

    Thanks to all teams for a stellar season,
    One that we’ll surely all remember.
    As maybe the year Double Nickels gets to have
    A meaningful game in December.
    This might have been your best effort ever!

  9. #9

    Default Re: NSIC Pick'Em Week #11 - Chat

    Quote Originally Posted by Quentin44 View Post
    Thanks to all teams for a stellar season,
    One that we’ll surely all remember.
    As maybe the year Double Nickels gets to have
    A meaningful game in December.
    Hopefully! It's been a fun year so far but I'm not quite ready for it to be over. So I'll just leave you with this:

    Some of you have been with us for years and
    Some have even shared some tears,
    But through it all we endured all the jeers
    For one last chance to celebrate and drink all of the beers, So lift your glass one final time and kick some Huskie a$$!

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    Default Re: NSIC Pick'Em Week #11 - Chat

    Quote Originally Posted by DoubleNickels View Post
    Hopefully! It's been a fun year so far but I'm not quite ready for it to be over. So I'll just leave you with this:

    Some of you have been with us for years and
    Some have even shared some tears,
    But through it all we endured all the jeers
    For one last chance to celebrate and drink all of the beers, So lift your glass one final time and kick some Huskie a$$!
    And here I thought that the last would would be "rears" to rhyme with years, tears and jeers!

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    Default Re: NSIC Pick'Em Week #11 - Chat

    Quote Originally Posted by laker View Post
    And here I thought that the last would would be "rears" to rhyme with years, tears and jeers!
    Rah, rah, ree!
    Kick 'em in the knee!
    Rah, rah, rass!
    Kick 'em in the other knee!

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    Default Re: NSIC Pick'Em Week #11 - Chat

    All I can say about Quentin 44's poetry is....it belongs to the ages.:) He belongs in the company of Wordsworth, Longfellow, Shakespeare, Robert Frost, and other immortals. :)

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    Default Re: NSIC Pick'Em Week #11 - Chat

    Hip hip hooray for Quentin44, the man is amazing!

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    Default Re: NSIC Pick'Em Week #11 - Chat

    Quote Originally Posted by vikingfaithful View Post
    Hip hip hooray for Quentin44, the man is amazing!
    OK, you all are VERY nice. Thank you for all the positive notes, although let's face it, the bar is kind of low if you accept "Texas" and "wreck this" as
    poetry.

    Ah, I can't quit you.

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    Default Re: NSIC Pick'Em Week #11 - Chat

    Quote Originally Posted by Quentin44 View Post
    Ah, I can't quit you.

  16. #16

    Default Re: NSIC Pick'Em Week #11 - Chat

    Quote Originally Posted by Tundra_Man View Post
    So here it is the last week of the regular season already. It went by way too fast. My picks for last week were abysmal, the only comfort being they were abysmal for most everyone. This week I only see two games that are a little up in the air (without an upset occurring.)

    Upper Iowa at Minnesota State-Mankato - Mankato is the #1 team in the nation. As we've repeatedly stated, UIU this season is Jeckyll and Hyde. However, I don't think either Jeckyll or Hyde will be enough to beat Mankato at home.

    Wayne State at Sioux Falls - Last weekend the Coo arguably gave Mankato their toughest game of the season, and as Witt said showed that they are likely much better than their record would indicate. Wayne also played a pretty good game against UIU. USF is down their top two wide receivers, which means they'll probably rely even more heavily on their heavy ground attack. Thankfully for them, Wayne has a slightly below middle of the pack run defense. However, knowing the USF will be a bit less potent through the air might make them sell out a bit more against the run. In addition, Watson needs 172 yards to break the NSIC single season rushing record and that may mean he gets the ball a little more often in the hopes he can reach that goal. I always think of Wayne as a scrappy team that can suprise people at times, so I'm not expecting the Wildcats to roll over. However, I do think that the Cougars win at home on Senior Day.

    Minot State at Bemidji State - Bemidji lost last weekend to a team that probably wasn't quite as good as them. I think they vent some frustrations in this weekend's Beaver Battle.

    Concordia-St. Paul at Winona State - Both these teams wrecked my picks last weekend. It didn't really surprise me that Winona won as I figured their game against Augie could go either way. It did surprise me that the Golden Bears knocked off SMSU, as CSP hasn't been playing as well recently. That being said, Winona is also a team that I think has played below their potential this season. But I don't think they're going to struggle too hard this weekend and they'll finish the season with a win and possibly a trip to the MWB.

    Northern State at Minnesota-Duluth - Duluth has had a couple of weeks to rest their starters and give their backups some valuable playing time. Northern hasn't had that luxury. Few teams beat the Bulldogs at home and I don't think the Wolves are going to change that statistic this weekend.

    Mary at Minnesota-Crookston - This is the first of my "up in the air" games. What a tough year for Mary. Before the season started I didn't think that at this point in the season they would be sitting winless. Even less likely would I have thought that they would be considered the underdog against Crookston. Both of these teams have had a couple games where they've played competitively, but a lot more games where they haven't. Mary will be fighting to not get shut out this season. Crookston will be fighting to have their first two-win season in a long time. I'm not sure if this has the makings of a really good game or a really bad game, but I think Crookston will have just enough more ability to win this game at home.

    St. Cloud State at Minnesota State-Moorhead - This is the other game I think could go either way. Both teams are sitting with a 7-3 record. I've watched both teams play this season and in the games I saw St. Cloud was clearly the better team. Perhaps I saw the Huskies on a particularly good day and the Dragons on a bad day? Could be. However I think St. Cloud is a much more physical team and that should allow them just enough edge to get a win on the road.

    Augustana at Southwest Minnesota State - Before last week SMSU seemed to be putting some things together, then they lost to a Concordia team that I thought they easily should have won against. Augie also lost, but to a much better Winona team. I think the Augie air attack is a really bad matchup for SMSU's passing defense, which will probably spell a long day for the Mustangs.
    I think Mankato may have thought Augustana and Winona gave them their toughest tests of the season since they both had 4th quarter leads and Mankato needed to come back late to win them both. Winona dominated the first half even though they had a number of key players out. A costly interception inside the 5 turned the game around for MSU. Augustana not having their QB in the game for the 2 pt conversion to tie didn't help them either. I think those both could have been losses for MSU. USF never had a lead against Mankato. USF finished about right in the standings for the team they had.

    You have posted a number of times that you thought USF gave Winona the game. I wasn't impressed with USF with the exception of Watson. He was a very good running back but that was about it. Winona had 4 turnovers in that game to 1 for USF along with some key penalties. They led to all the points for USF which I thought Winona was trying to give the game away but they held on despite losing more key players. If you think losing 11 starters, playing 2 top 10 teams close and still finishing with at least 7 maybe 8 wins is under performing than I think we have 2 very different opinions. For the number of young players WSU had playing this year and maybe getting to 8 wins is overachieving. I like our chances next year since so many young players stepped up and played key minutes most of the season that will help them next year for sure. It won't hurt that Gomez and Pridgeon have already applied for medical redshirts and should be returning next year as well.
    Last edited by OldSchool; 11-09-2018 at 10:35 PM. Reason: font color

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    Default Re: NSIC Pick'Em Week #11 - Chat

    Quote Originally Posted by OldSchool View Post
    I think Mankato may have thought Augustana and Winona gave them their toughest tests of the season since they both had 4th quarter leads and Mankato needed to come back late to win them both. Winona dominated the first half even though they had a number of key players out. A costly interception inside the 5 turned the game around for MSU. Augustana not having their QB in the game for the 2 pt conversion to tie didn't help them either. I think those both could have been losses for MSU. USF never had a lead against Mankato. USF finished about right in the standings for the team they had.

    You have posted a number of times that you thought USF gave Winona the game. I wasn't impressed with USF with the exception of Watson. He was a very good running back but that was about it. Winona had 4 turnovers in that game to 1 for USF along with some key penalties. They led to all the points for USF which I thought Winona was trying to give the game away but they held on despite losing more key players. If you think losing 11 starters, playing 2 top 10 teams close and still finishing with at least 7 maybe 8 wins is under performing than I think we have 2 very different opinions. For the number of young players WSU had playing this year and maybe getting to 8 wins is overachieving. I like our chances next year since so many young players stepped up and played key minutes most of the season that will help them next year for sure. It won't hurt that Gomez and Pridgeon have already applied for medical redshirts and should be returning next year as well.
    Hence my use of the word "arguably" toughest game of the season. Augie, Winona and Sioux Falls all gave Mankato their biggest tests of the season. One could argue which one was the toughest based on various facets.

    And by "underperforming" I was basing on what most people thought Winona's record would be prior to the season's start. Injuries have been a huge factor in that record, which I have mentioned repeatedly on other chat threads but didn't this time because I figured I was beating a dead horse. Perhaps "underperforming" was a bad word choice, but basically back in August me and most everyone else assumed at this point in the season Winona would have been in the playoff hunt.

    And regardless, I still think USF gave Winona that game. I forgot how many kicks we missed in that game, including the one at the end that would have sealed a victory. It was a shanked kick, not a block. Totally on USF for losing that one.

  18. #18

    Default Re: NSIC Pick'Em Week #11 - Chat

    Quote Originally Posted by Tundra_Man View Post
    Hence my use of the word "arguably" toughest game of the season. Augie, Winona and Sioux Falls all gave Mankato their biggest tests of the season. One could argue which one was the toughest based on various facets.

    And by "underperforming" I was basing on what most people thought Winona's record would be prior to the season's start. Injuries have been a huge factor in that record, which I have mentioned repeatedly on other chat threads but didn't this time because I figured I was beating a dead horse. Perhaps "underperforming" was a bad word choice, but basically back in August me and most everyone else assumed at this point in the season Winona would have been in the playoff hunt.

    And regardless, I still think USF gave Winona that game. I forgot how many kicks we missed in that game, including the one at the end that would have sealed a victory. It was a shanked kick, not a block. Totally on USF for losing that one.
    If you hadn't been saying all year that the USF kept giving their games away and then played the MSU the toughest of all the other teams I wouldn't have said anything. With never owning up to a loss just got to be a little much. If Winona didn't have so many key injuries they would have been in the playoffs. Most teams have good backups but it is tough to replace some of the key players like captains and all conference players with Fr and So players. They were getting things figured out after a few games but it cost them in the interum but will help them next year. Without the UIU debacle they still would have made the post season. We took 5 points off the board at UIU by penalties. It has been a problem for us all year.

    You missed 2 kicks and had one blocked. I guess the turnovers that led to your points were just great plays on your part and not mistakes by WSU?? I still think USF was overrated and Winona tried to give the game away. It wasn't just one play that made the difference, WSU left a lot of opportunities on the field with turnovers and penalties that gave USF the chance to kick a FG at the end. This years USF team was not as good as the last few years but they were not just giving the games away, they got beat and finished about right.

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    Default Re: NSIC Pick'Em Week #11 - Chat

    I wish the Huskies a boatload of luck
    I won't be there cuz it's cold as f*ck

    (Inspired by Quentin44)

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    Default Re: NSIC Pick'Em Week #11 - Chat

    Quote Originally Posted by OldSchool View Post
    If you hadn't been saying all year that the USF kept giving their games away and then played the MSU the toughest of all the other teams I wouldn't have said anything. With never owning up to a loss just got to be a little much. If Winona didn't have so many key injuries they would have been in the playoffs. Most teams have good backups but it is tough to replace some of the key players like captains and all conference players with Fr and So players. They were getting things figured out after a few games but it cost them in the interum but will help them next year. Without the UIU debacle they still would have made the post season. We took 5 points off the board at UIU by penalties. It has been a problem for us all year.

    You missed 2 kicks and had one blocked. I guess the turnovers that led to your points were just great plays on your part and not mistakes by WSU?? I still think USF was overrated and Winona tried to give the game away. It wasn't just one play that made the difference, WSU left a lot of opportunities on the field with turnovers and penalties that gave USF the chance to kick a FG at the end. This years USF team was not as good as the last few years but they were not just giving the games away, they got beat and finished about right.
    USF missed 3FG in the WSU game....they make 1 of them, they win. That was when WSU was healthier than they were in the back half of the year. I think most people would've take USF to beat WSU 7 outta 10 if they played weekly throughout the year. Neither team was as good as the year previous. Neither looked good when they played each other as well..but the opponent has a lot to do with that. When you don't convert on any of 3 FG attempts and lose by 1pt, you blame yourself. When you are up 21-3 at BSU in the 3rd quarter and lose, you blame yourself. SCSU....they just beat USF IMO....but 2 games right there..if USF takes care of business, they are on the 6 line for the playoffs right now, as their SOS is very high. But..that's the difference between taking care of your business and not finishing games.

    The difference between USF and WSU both playing Mankato was that USF played the Mavs hard in the 2nd half while Winona was up at half and was dominated in the 2nd half. Watching USF destroy teams like UIU and Augie, while Winona lost to the Peacocks and struggled to beat AU....that kinda stuff also suggests that looking at the entire year, USF was the better team and played the tougher schedule (per the SOS).

    Like you've mentioned, WSU had a lot of key injuries this year..and I've documented that from the moment it started..losing 3 of captains in the first month of the season. Like you, I thought WSU would be right in the playoff race..but their own inability to finish UIU sunk their boat certainly.

    Sometimes it's not as easy as "we beat you" to critically assess how good a team was in a given year. You don't hear me saying UIU is better than BSU or WSU..and they beat both of those squads head-up....instead you look at the entire year, how teams played against the best teams, and so forth.

    My thoughts.

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