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Thread: SRU

  1. #161

    Default Re: SRU

    To chime in on the defense stuff here, I think people, not just this board, make a big deal about points scored and points allowed; I know you have to score to win. But that isn't the numbers that you should focus on. A good defensive effort is predicated on %. In most cases, if you hold your opponents under 42% from the field and 31% from three, it has been a good defensive night; those numbers consistently bear out. There are some teams that play really fast and give up more points, but that is because their pace of play is so high. I think points scored and allowed isn't the biggest tell in determining if it was a good defensive night. Look at the percentages.

  2. #162
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    Default Re: SRU

    Quote Originally Posted by hawks16 View Post
    ...would Kevin Reynolds recruit Jimmy Chitwood?
    Only if he was bounced from his first program and played one year at a JUCO first!!

  3. Default Re: SRU

    Quote Originally Posted by PSAC76 View Post
    To chime in on the defense stuff here, I think people, not just this board, make a big deal about points scored and points allowed; I know you have to score to win. But that isn't the numbers that you should focus on. A good defensive effort is predicated on %. In most cases, if you hold your opponents under 42% from the field and 31% from three, it has been a good defensive night; those numbers consistently bear out. There are some teams that play really fast and give up more points, but that is because their pace of play is so high. I think points scored and allowed isn't the biggest tell in determining if it was a good defensive night. Look at the percentages.
    I think your approach would be a good indicator for most styles of basketball. However, it does not take into account turnovers.

    Looking at it from a game theory perspective, isn't the purpose of defense to limit the average points per offensive possession of the opponent?
    A possession can result in:
    1) made 1 point, 2 point or 3 point or 4 point shot,
    2) one or more missed shots for zero points
    3) turnover or
    4) time expiration like end of half.

    As you said, more possessions means more points for both teams.
    .

    I'm not sure how to precisely compute number of offensive possessions without processing the play-by play account of the game. Complication factor is And-1 plays for scenario 1.
    Also a missed shot that goes to the other team can either be due to a defensive rebound or the missed shot going out of bounds, which is probably not considered a turnover.
    Probably there are some other cases.

    There are many strategies for minimizing the average points per possession of your opponent while maximizing your team's average points per possession.
    All styles can be successful, depending on the execution.

    WLU does the defensive full-court trapping approach on makes and misses to create turnovers and fatigue (which will hopefully lower shooting percentage and create unforced errors), while giving up some dunks and layups on run outs.

    WLU tries to optimize its return on possession by recruiting players who are deadly three point shooters (everyone has the green light on an open 3) who are fundamentally sound, unselfish and interchangeable (except maybe for PG) in order to take the first great (open) shot, which, if the shot is made, allows them to apply pressure on defense. On the other hand they give up size and strength, which increases opponent's percentage because they get in the paint as well as the run-outs. If WLU is cold and the 3 pt shot is open and missed, then the pendulum swings toward the opponent.

  4. #164

    Default Re: SRU

    Quote Originally Posted by Columbuseer View Post
    I think your approach would be a good indicator for most styles of basketball. However, it does not take into account turnovers.

    Looking at it from a game theory perspective, isn't the purpose of defense to limit the average points per offensive possession of the opponent?
    A possession can result in:
    1) made 1 point, 2 point or 3 point or 4 point shot,
    2) one or more missed shots for zero points
    3) turnover or
    4) time expiration like end of half.

    As you said, more possessions means more points for both teams.
    .

    I'm not sure how to precisely compute number of offensive possessions without processing the play-by play account of the game. Complication factor is And-1 plays for scenario 1.
    Also a missed shot that goes to the other team can either be due to a defensive rebound or the missed shot going out of bounds, which is probably not considered a turnover.
    Probably there are some other cases.

    There are many strategies for minimizing the average points per possession of your opponent while maximizing your team's average points per possession.
    All styles can be successful, depending on the execution.

    WLU does the defensive full-court trapping approach on makes and misses to create turnovers and fatigue (which will hopefully lower shooting percentage and create unforced errors), while giving up some dunks and layups on run outs.

    WLU tries to optimize its return on possession by recruiting players who are deadly three point shooters (everyone has the green light on an open 3) who are fundamentally sound, unselfish and interchangeable (except maybe for PG) in order to take the first great (open) shot, which, if the shot is made, allows them to apply pressure on defense. On the other hand they give up size and strength, which increases opponent's percentage because they get in the paint as well as the run-outs. If WLU is cold and the 3 pt shot is open and missed, then the pendulum swings toward the opponent.
    I would completely agree on the efficiency and points per poss, as well as your points about turnovers. My overarching point was that too many times we just look at scoring and make a determination that points per game is what defines a good offense or defense. To calculate possessions, I believe the formula is...

    FGA - OFF REB + TO's + (FTA / .600) = TOT POSS

    Then you just divide the points by poss and that gives you the efficiency

  5. #165
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    Default Re: SRU

    We fans, myself included, always want the easy answer to what are really complex questions. Does my team play good defense or offense are just two of the questions we tend to dumb down. Just because a team scores a lot of points doesn't mean that they are a good offensive team...just because a teams opponent doesn't score 50 points doesn't mean that the team played great defense...just because two teams play a 106-105 game doesn't mean that both teams played great offense...and just because two teams play a 50-52 game doesn't mean that both teams play great D.

  6. Default Re: SRU

    Quote Originally Posted by PSAC76 View Post
    I would completely agree on the efficiency and points per poss, as well as your points about turnovers. My overarching point was that too many times we just look at scoring and make a determination that points per game is what defines a good offense or defense. To calculate possessions, I believe the formula is...

    FGA - OFF REB + TO's + (FTA / .600) = TOT POSS

    Then you just divide the points by poss and that gives you the efficiency
    I would say that formula is close enough to accurately represent possessions. Thanks!

    Free throws are where it gets complicated with 2 shot fouls perhaps more prevalent for inside shooting teams, and missing second shot of 1-and-1. Is that where divisor of .6 comes in?
    Technical fouls don’t occur enough to be significant. Are jump balls turnovers on alternate possession?

  7. #167

    Default Re: SRU

    Quote Originally Posted by Columbuseer View Post
    I would say that formula is close enough to accurately represent possessions. Thanks!

    Free throws are where it gets complicated with 2 shot fouls perhaps more prevalent for inside shooting teams, and missing second shot of 1-and-1. Is that where divisor of .6 comes in?
    Technical fouls don’t occur enough to be significant. Are jump balls turnovers on alternate possession?
    That formula is fine, except you should probably multiply FTA by 0.600 instead of divide. You need to account for missed front ends of 1/1 (in reality, there are very few 1/1's nowadays) and and-ones.

    My formula is (FGM + opp defensive rebounds + TO + FTA * .550). You arrive at about the same answer -- yours might be superior because you can just use one team's stat line.

  8. Default Re: SRU

    Quote Originally Posted by Golden89 View Post
    That formula is fine, except you should probably multiply FTA by 0.600 instead of divide. You need to account for missed front ends of 1/1 (in reality, there are very few 1/1's nowadays) and and-ones.

    My formula is (FGM + opp defensive rebounds + TO + FTA * .550). You arrive at about the same answer -- yours might be superior because you can just use one team's stat line.
    That is an interesting formula also. How do u account for missed shot going out of bounds with no defensive rebound and ball goes to the non shooting team ( like air ball or going off of shooting team player).
    Also good point about 1/1 . There are only about 3 per half per team max.

  9. #169
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    Default

    Over analysis and saber metrics such as this conversation are taking the enjoyment out of simply watching sports. Lol

    Why do we have to quantify everything?


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  10. #170

    Default Re: SRU

    Quote Originally Posted by Columbuseer View Post
    That is an interesting formula also. How do u account for missed shot going out of bounds with no defensive rebound and ball goes to the non shooting team ( like air ball or going off of shooting team player).
    Is there a better stat in basketball than the dead-ball rebound?

  11. #171

    Default Re: SRU

    Quote Originally Posted by Columbuseer View Post
    I would say that formula is close enough to accurately represent possessions. Thanks!

    Free throws are where it gets complicated with 2 shot fouls perhaps more prevalent for inside shooting teams, and missing second shot of 1-and-1. Is that where divisor of .6 comes in?
    Technical fouls don’t occur enough to be significant. Are jump balls turnovers on alternate possession?
    From my understanding, the divisor was placed in after much study, so that people don't have to go possession by possession to figure it out. You can look at the box score and come up with a close enough calculation on the possessions by using that indicator. Or, you can just go through and count every possession in the play by play. I have heard that offensive rebounds don't count as an extra possession in the efficiency process, although we all realize it is an extra possession.

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    Quote Originally Posted by IUP24 View Post
    Over analysis and saber metrics such as this conversation are taking the enjoyment out of simply watching sports. Lol

    Why do we have to quantify everything?


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    I take it your not a big fan of Effective Technical Shooting %, True Shooting % or Pythagorean Record? You're probably one of those Neanderthals that believes that the final score is the only stat that matters and you can measure how good a team is by looking at its W/L record!!! Hahahahaha!!!

  13. #173
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    Default Re: SRU

    My take on Sabermetrics and "advanced stats" in general is that they serve two primary purposes...betting and team building. As betting tools, they team based metrics can be comparative in nature (comparing Team A to Team B to try and glean a betting advantage) and of very little benefit when trying to compare and "rank" a group of teams. As roster building tools the individual player "ratings" can be used by GM's to determine which players they should sign and which they should cut.

  14. #174

    Default Re: SRU

    Quote Originally Posted by hawks16 View Post
    Is there a better stat in basketball than the dead-ball rebound?
    It's either a team rebound or a deadball rebound, depending on the situation. The total number of missed shots have to add up to the total number of rebounds.

    Deadball rebounds are the best!

  15. #175

    Default Re: SRU

    Quote Originally Posted by PSAC76 View Post
    From my understanding, the divisor was placed in after much study, so that people don't have to go possession by possession to figure it out. You can look at the box score and come up with a close enough calculation on the possessions by using that indicator. Or, you can just go through and count every possession in the play by play. I have heard that offensive rebounds don't count as an extra possession in the efficiency process, although we all realize it is an extra possession.
    Yes, this is the value. Every possession ends either with a made basket, a defensive rebound, one or more FT attempts, or a turnover. These are all mutually exclusive, except for the case that a possession ends with a made basket and FT (three-point play). The only thing that doesn't get detected is where a possession ends without a shot and time runs out in the quarter or half. These are pretty rare as most teams will heave up a desperation shot.

  16. Default Re: SRU

    Quote Originally Posted by PSAC76 View Post
    From my understanding, the divisor was placed in after much study, so that people don't have to go possession by possession to figure it out. You can look at the box score and come up with a close enough calculation on the possessions by using that indicator. Or, you can just go through and count every possession in the play by play. I have heard that offensive rebounds don't count as an extra possession in the efficiency process, although we all realize it is an extra possession.
    As another person stated earlier, should the divisor really be a multipication factor since it is less than 1? Otherwise FTA/.6 has a result > FTA (i.e., FTA of 12 divided by .6) = 20
    The calculation should always be less than FTA to take into account fouled in act of shooting (2 shots). Do you agree?
    BTW, WLU is averaging 1.27 pts per possession with a median of 1.27 also, which indicates very little skewing.
    Their high was over 1.5 against guess who (glenville).
    Most of their opponents are less than 1.1 pts per possession, which explains their high margin of victory.

    The greater the difference, the greater the margin of victory in most cases.

    When IUP beat Fairmont, IUP average 1.29 pts per posession, which is about average for WLU.
    But they held Fairmont to under 1.0 pts per posessions (while against WLU they had 1.3 to WLU's 1.29).
    So there is something to be said for IUP's great defense, in shutting down Fairmont. Impressive!
    Fairmont could not muscle IUP for easy inside shots like they did WLU.

  17. #177

    Default Re: SRU

    Quote Originally Posted by Columbuseer View Post
    As another person stated earlier, should the divisor really be a multipication factor since it is less than 1? Otherwise FTA/.6 has a result > FTA (i.e., FTA of 12 divided by .6) = 20
    The calculation should always be less than FTA to take into account fouled in act of shooting (2 shots). Do you agree?
    BTW, WLU is averaging 1.27 pts per possession with a median of 1.27 also, which indicates very little skewing.
    Their high was over 1.5 against guess who (glenville).
    Most of their opponents are less than 1.1 pts per possession, which explains their high margin of victory.

    The greater the difference, the greater the margin of victory in most cases.

    When IUP beat Fairmont, IUP average 1.29 pts per posession, which is about average for WLU.
    But they held Fairmont to under 1.0 pts per posessions (while against WLU they had 1.3 to WLU's 1.29).
    So there is something to be said for IUP's great defense, in shutting down Fairmont. Impressive!
    Fairmont could not muscle IUP for easy inside shots like they did WLU.
    It was a total mismatch under the basket.

  18. #178

    Default Re: SRU

    The obvious question is will SRU remove the 'interim' tag from Grady?

    He's doing a remarkable job. No question.

    What say you?

  19. #179

    Default Re: SRU

    Now that the Kevin Reynolds news is official (and his going away package was massive for this level) ... question becomes what happens next.

    From all I'm told by those close to the SRU program, he shouldn't have any trouble landing at another PASSHE school if he'd so choose. There was nothing criminal in his dismissal. Certainly, there were items a school could see as questionable.

    What jobs could be open after this season? Clarion, for starters, is the obvious choice. It's not working there under Marcess Williams. The program continues to fall with each year under his regime. There's zero fan support.

    The Golden Eagles will soon be heading in to a fancy, fully renovated Tippin Gymnasium. They need a little buzz -- and more importantly, to win games.

    The men's basketball scholarship budget at Clarion is similar to what Reynolds worked with for years at SRU. He knows the conference as good as anybody and he's perhaps the best 'quick fixer' around.

    Granted, he has some flaws. But, he'd quickly turn Clarion in to a competitive program.

    While the Seton Hill recent hire seems like a long shot to work out, they'll give him several years. So, that job is off the table.

    I don't follow the East well enough to know of the coaching situations.

  20. Default Re: SRU

    Quote Originally Posted by IUPbigINDIANS View Post
    Now that the Kevin Reynolds news is official (and his going away package was massive for this level) ... question becomes what happens next.

    From all I'm told by those close to the SRU program, he shouldn't have any trouble landing at another PASSHE school if he'd so choose. There was nothing criminal in his dismissal. Certainly, there were items a school could see as questionable.

    What jobs could be open after this season? Clarion, for starters, is the obvious choice. It's not working there under Marcess Williams. The program continues to fall with each year under his regime. There's zero fan support.

    The Golden Eagles will soon be heading in to a fancy, fully renovated Tippin Gymnasium. They need a little buzz -- and more importantly, to win games.

    The men's basketball scholarship budget at Clarion is similar to what Reynolds worked with for years at SRU. He knows the conference as good as anybody and he's perhaps the best 'quick fixer' around.

    Granted, he has some flaws. But, he'd quickly turn Clarion in to a competitive program.

    While the Seton Hill recent hire seems like a long shot to work out, they'll give him several years. So, that job is off the table.

    I don't follow the East well enough to know of the coaching situations.
    I’d be stunned if he wound up at another PSAC school. From his perspective, I think a fresh start far away would be the best thing anyway. And while he did make SRU competitive on a shoestring budget, he never really won anything. I don’t think the results will overshadow the red flags enough for a school in this conference to hire him, this soon at least.

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