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Thread: Week 7 - Composite Rankings and MIAA in regional hotseat?

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    Default Week 7 - Composite Rankings and MIAA in regional hotseat?

    Ferris and Grand Valley settled their grip over #1 on the field (for the time being), and if you missed that game, what are you even doing as a D2 fan? That puts West Georgia and Valdosta now snuggling up to take over #1 for the state of Georgia, for SR2 and for D2 overall; they'll meet to end the season but both have games in the meantime that could trip them up if they aren't careful. And Minnie St. continues to lag in the computer polls even though they have the two #1 overall selections by the human polls.
    Tarleton and Indianapolis are the biggest benefactors this week from ranked teams beating ranked teams; both have moved up slowly all season but with Commerce, S. Arkansas and in a way GVSU losing we see Tarleton and Indy garner votes. FHSU last week had the greatest fall going from 9th to 30th and this week have the largest jump back from 30th to 19th. A roller coaster ride like that means they'll probably throw up all over their shoes this weekend. Because new to the rankings is their opponent UNK - which is crazy since UNK lost last week, but the strength of schedule jumped by adding NW Mo. Also new this week (again) is Emporia St. which takes the place of Central Mo. dropping out of the rankings.
    Missouri S&T and Saginaw also enter for the first time this year with Saginaw really jumping in at 28th and actually we all should have seen it coming. S&T, well that's still to be determined how legit their move is. Dropping out Davenport which is fine because they aren't eligible for playoffs anyway and Cal P - man they could have rode a win over IUP a long way but followed up by dropping a game to 1-5 Gannon, what in the world?

    Regional thoughts

    SRI - A little bit of shuffling of the same top 7 teams from last week, the only significant change was dropping Cal P out all together from consideration, as I mentioned above a loss to Gannon, what in the world?

    SRII - I flipped Morehouse and Virginia Union; Morehouse lost to Albany and looked terrible doing it but they still lead the SIAC at 6-1 (technically). That gets settled Saturday when they play 5-1 Benedict. So look for Benedict to overtake a spot in the regionals next week. The question that's going to arise out of SRII is can Gulf South get 5 teams in? 6? I mean West Alabama and North Greenville are obviously better than what the SIAC or CIAA conference champs might be.

    SRIII - Fort Hays takes over Pitt St. for 7th spot this week and of course Ferris takes over #1. I'm still not convinced despite all the arguing in this spot of the internet MIAA doesn't get 2 teams in even if that means a 3 loss team. The likelyhood that GAC second place team has 3 losses is high and the 3rd place team in the GAC is almost certainly going to have 3 losses. Harding still has to play SE OK, one of them will get a 3rd loss there. Harding may finish with 2 losses then but to Ouachita and S. Arkansas; S. Arkansas still has Ouachita and Henderson to play. As we know both conferences in silo schedule we have no comparison of what conference is stronger; and shame on me I guess but just because it's not NW Mo and Pitt at the top doesn't mean the MIAA is any weaker than previous years. I just don't see at this time the committee taking 3 from one silo conference over 1 in another when you can take 2 each since we have no idea which conference is better. So that leaves us with Saginaw for the GLAC to take 3 spots - Saginaw plays Ferris and Grand Valley back to back here so the nightmare scenario for MIAA and GAC is really if there happens to be a three way tie in the GLAC. I don't think so, I think Sagi has little chance and with a loss to Ashland which will probably lose at least another game, Saginaw by the end of the season shouldn't look as strong as again a 2nd place team in either the MIAA or GAC.

    SRIV - Like SRI one, only shuffled a few of the teams; Tarleton moves to the second line. I don't know what to do with Central Washington, they haven't done anything except beat bad teams by a lot, which is what you're supposed to do. I should probably put them on the 4 line for one home playoff game before having to travel but I just can't. Central Washington and Indianapolis should be forced to play each other every year to determine who is the best of the bad good teams that might deserve a playoff spot.

    Once again I modified some things on the pics so hopefully they can be seen.



    Last edited by EveryCatAWildman; 10-17-2018 at 04:35 PM.

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    Default Re: Week 7 - Composite Rankings and MIAA in regional hotseat?

    I would also say the likelihood of the MIAA second place team having 3 losses is high.

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    Default Re: Week 7 - Composite Rankings and MIAA in regional hotseat?

    Quote Originally Posted by CatFan88 View Post
    I would also say the likelihood of the MIAA second place team having 3 losses is high.
    Projected W/L look like this



    Pretty straightforward - NW Mo, Ferris, Oauchita, Grand Valley, Indy and very likely S. Arkansas with the win over Harding. So that leaves for debate Harding, Missouri S&T both at 9-2 or 3rd place Saginaw or 2nd place MIAA, in my projected outcomes that'd be FHSU with the tie-breaker over PSU and UCO.

    My argument at this time is the MIAA would have 7 teams over .500 compared to 5 teams in the GAC, 4 teams in the GLIAC (and would we even consider Davenport?) and 4 teams in the GLIAC. My stance then is the MIAA is stronger middle to top than the other 3 conferences and should get a second team in; the other conferences top teams are feasting on the lower half.

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    Default Re: Week 7 - Composite Rankings and MIAA in regional hotseat?

    Quote Originally Posted by EveryCatAWildman View Post
    Projected W/L look like this



    Pretty straightforward - NW Mo, Ferris, Oauchita, Grand Valley, Indy and very likely S. Arkansas with the win over Harding. So that leaves for debate Harding, Missouri S&T both at 9-2 or 3rd place Saginaw or 2nd place MIAA, in my projected outcomes that'd be FHSU with the tie-breaker over PSU and UCO.

    My argument at this time is the MIAA would have 7 teams over .500 compared to 5 teams in the GAC, 4 teams in the GLIAC (and would we even consider Davenport?) and 4 teams in the GLIAC. My stance then is the MIAA is stronger middle to top than the other 3 conferences and should get a second team in; the other conferences top teams are feasting on the lower half.
    If these projections hold true, then NW will be the lone representative. The regional committee will not compare the GAC or MIAA to other leagues because they can’t do so objectively. Number of wins is the top criteria, and the others only come into play if there is a tie. There just simply aren’t enough data points for a team with more losses to jump one with less in our region. Especially since your projections show 8 teams with 2 or less losses, so that means a 3 loss team would have to jump two teams, not just one. It’s not gonna happen.

    Even though DU isn’t PO eligible, all of their games against the other teams still count towards the applicable criteria.

    Now, something to keep an eye on is the announcement by Ferris St. today that they have used an ineligible player. I don’t know what will come of it, but if they have to vacate any wins, things get real interesting.

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    Default Re: Week 7 - Composite Rankings and MIAA in regional hotseat?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ian Carlson View Post
    Now, something to keep an eye on is the announcement by Ferris St. today that they have used an ineligible player.
    Was it in the game against GVSU?

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    Default Re: Week 7 - Composite Rankings and MIAA in regional hotseat?

    Quote Originally Posted by GoCatsGo5 View Post
    Was it in the game against GVSU?
    No, it was the first 4 games of the season: East Strousburg, Findlay, Northern MI, and Northwood.

    And in the top post, it lists GV in the third spot. I have my bias, but with a home loss by GV vs the road loss of NW as well as a better in region SOS, would GV be in #2 should they win out? I guess I could see OBU in #2 and GV in #3, and then drop NW to #4. Just curious. (or isn't that meant to indicate the seeded order?)

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    Default Re: Week 7 - Composite Rankings and MIAA in regional hotseat?

    Quote Originally Posted by Redwing View Post
    No, it was the first 4 games of the season: East Strousburg, Findlay, Northern MI, and Northwood.

    And in the top post, it lists GV in the third spot. I have my bias, but with a home loss by GV vs the road loss of NW as well as a better in region SOS, would GV be in #2 should they win out? I guess I could see OBU in #2 and GV in #3, and then drop NW to #4. Just curious. (or isn't that meant to indicate the seeded order?)
    If both teams win out, I’d think GV would be ahead of NW. The problem is, Indy may also only have one loss, so then the tiebreakers get weird.

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    Default Re: Week 7 - Composite Rankings and MIAA in regional hotseat?

    Ferris is clearly one of the favorites to win a nc. I would hate to see them left out. OTOH, this really looks intentional.

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    Default Re: Week 7 - Composite Rankings and MIAA in regional hotseat?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ian Carlson View Post
    Now, something to keep an eye on is the announcement by Ferris St. today that they have used an ineligible player. I don’t know what will come of it, but if they have to vacate any wins, things get real interesting.
    I don't see any way they shouldn't have Ferris vacate the wins. Of course this is the NCAA though. Having an incompetent employee at the U to oversee eligibility should not provide a get out of jail free card. #youhadonejob

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    Default Re: Week 7 - Composite Rankings and MIAA in regional hotseat?

    Quote Originally Posted by Predatory Primates View Post
    Ferris is clearly one of the favorites to win a nc. I would hate to see them left out. OTOH, this really looks intentional.
    Yeah, I'd like to know the story about why he all of a sudden was taken off the field after game 4. What changed? Who interpreted the transfer rule correctly? Someone outside the U?

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    Default Re: Week 7 - Composite Rankings and MIAA in regional hotseat?

    Quote Originally Posted by Redwing View Post
    No, it was the first 4 games of the season: East Strousburg, Findlay, Northern MI, and Northwood.

    And in the top post, it lists GV in the third spot. I have my bias, but with a home loss by GV vs the road loss of NW as well as a better in region SOS, would GV be in #2 should they win out? I guess I could see OBU in #2 and GV in #3, and then drop NW to #4. Just curious. (or isn't that meant to indicate the seeded order?)
    No you are probably right. Admittedly, I'm just a fan of D2 football so not trying to follow all (any) of the rules of actual selection, other than if you aren't eligible then you won't be listed. Just putting out my opinion and trying to back it up a little to add some color to the talking points on the blog. To be serious, if we all just follow the rules of selection then there really is nothing to talk but unlike most that think the rankings mean nothing I kind of think they do or at least should mean something, so I cobble together this post each week to find any nuances I can. It gives me interest in games, because why else would somebody watch Morehouse vs Albany on a Sunday?

    As for Grand Valley, I see it opposite of you I guess, losing at home is a mark down than losing on the road like NW Mo. YES, losing to the #1 team that was back and forth through out is arguably the best loss a team can have at home compared to losing to a middle of the pack road team BUT I didn't say I was being fair. Also, I think Grand Valley has a major flaw...the toss it up for big play receptions. Another team, FHSU, did that last year and got a long way with it until they didn't. It doesn't go into selection process (and shouldn't) but for me that flaw is what put NW Mo over GVSU, at this time.

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    Default Re: Week 7 - Composite Rankings and MIAA in regional hotseat?

    Quote Originally Posted by Taxman View Post
    Of course this is the NCAA though.
    Which means he will be declared ineligble and wins vacated...it'll just be retroactive in a couple years from now when they get to it.

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    Default Re: Week 7 - Composite Rankings and MIAA in regional hotseat?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ian Carlson View Post
    If both teams win out, I’d think GV would be ahead of NW. The problem is, Indy may also only have one loss, so then the tiebreakers get weird.
    Indy...stinks...doesn't mean the GLVC shouldn't have a representative, they should...I just don't care about polished records. I thought Indy should have been the 7 seed last year and I only see a slight improvement in their team this year.

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    Default Re: Week 7 - Composite Rankings and MIAA in regional hotseat?

    Quote Originally Posted by EveryCatAWildman View Post
    No you are probably right. Admittedly, I'm just a fan of D2 football so not trying to follow all (any) of the rules of actual selection, other than if you aren't eligible then you won't be listed. Just putting out my opinion and trying to back it up a little to add some color to the talking points on the blog. To be serious, if we all just follow the rules of selection then there really is nothing to talk but unlike most that think the rankings mean nothing I kind of think they do or at least should mean something, so I cobble together this post each week to find any nuances I can. It gives me interest in games, because why else would somebody watch Morehouse vs Albany on a Sunday?

    As for Grand Valley, I see it opposite of you I guess, losing at home is a mark down than losing on the road like NW Mo. YES, losing to the #1 team that was back and forth through out is arguably the best loss a team can have at home compared to losing to a middle of the pack road team BUT I didn't say I was being fair. Also, I think Grand Valley has a major flaw...the toss it up for big play receptions. Another team, FHSU, did that last year and got a long way with it until they didn't. It doesn't go into selection process (and shouldn't) but for me that flaw is what put NW Mo over GVSU, at this time.
    I pointed that out since that was the exact criterea that kept GV out of the play offs last season. They had three ROAD losses. HU had none. I too agree that that is backwards, but it essentially cost GC a PO spot last season. Road record is a separate PO criteria.
    Thanks for doing the analysis though.

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    Default Re: Week 7 - Composite Rankings and MIAA in regional hotseat?

    Quote Originally Posted by EveryCatAWildman View Post
    No you are probably right. Admittedly, I'm just a fan of D2 football so not trying to follow all (any) of the rules of actual selection, other than if you aren't eligible then you won't be listed. Just putting out my opinion and trying to back it up a little to add some color to the talking points on the blog. To be serious, if we all just follow the rules of selection then there really is nothing to talk but unlike most that think the rankings mean nothing I kind of think they do or at least should mean something, so I cobble together this post each week to find any nuances I can. It gives me interest in games, because why else would somebody watch Morehouse vs Albany on a Sunday?

    As for Grand Valley, I see it opposite of you I guess, losing at home is a mark down than losing on the road like NW Mo. YES, losing to the #1 team that was back and forth through out is arguably the best loss a team can have at home compared to losing to a middle of the pack road team BUT I didn't say I was being fair. Also, I think Grand Valley has a major flaw...the toss it up for big play receptions. Another team, FHSU, did that last year and got a long way with it until they didn't. It doesn't go into selection process (and shouldn't) but for me that flaw is what put NW Mo over GVSU, at this time.
    The reason he mentions the home v road thing is that one of the criteria is “results on the road”. However (and I thought this was learned last year), losses are not part of any criteria, so the logic Redwing is using is slightly flawed. Having said that, if both teams win out, then GV would have the better road record, so he’s not wrong. The question is whether your point about the criteria of “results vs teams .500 or better” offsets GV’s advantage on the road.

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    Default Re: Week 7 - Composite Rankings and MIAA in regional hotseat?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ian Carlson View Post
    The reason he mentions the home v road thing is that one of the criteria is “results on the road”. However (and I thought this was learned last year), losses are not part of any criteria, so the logic Redwing is using is slightly flawed. Having said that, if both teams win out, then GV would have the better road record, so he’s not wrong. The question is whether your point about the criteria of “results vs teams .500 or better” offsets GV’s advantage on the road.
    Ok, losses may not be, but record is.. and that includes losses. Sorry I'm not perfect. So if you want to go on and claim that losses aren't not part of any criteria, go ahead and confuse everyone. For me, if you say that, than only wins are noted? SOS? W/L %.. sure, none of them are losses so they aren't a criteria. Sure, it's not like there is a criteria that says "number of losses" but many of the criteria include losses. I guess that wins aren't included either?

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    Default Re: Week 7 - Composite Rankings and MIAA in regional hotseat?

    Quote Originally Posted by Taxman View Post
    Yeah, I'd like to know the story about why he all of a sudden was taken off the field after game 4. What changed? Who interpreted the transfer rule correctly? Someone outside the U?
    FSU’s official statement seemed to go out of its way to say that the person who made the error wasn’t affiliated with the athletic department. If that is indeed the case, that is just plain dumb, IMO. Seems strange.

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    Default Re: Week 7 - Composite Rankings and MIAA in regional hotseat?

    Quote Originally Posted by Redwing View Post
    Ok, losses may not be, but record is.. and that includes losses. Sorry I'm not perfect.
    C’mon, you’re an engineer...

    In all seriousness, the reason I said it that way was exactly the situation you brought up re: GV vs Harding last year. Everyone was arguing about who had the better losses when the committee was looking at who had the better wins.

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    Default Re: Week 7 - Composite Rankings and MIAA in regional hotseat?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ian Carlson View Post
    FSU’s official statement seemed to go out of its way to say that the person who made the error wasn’t affiliated with the athletic department. If that is indeed the case, that is just plain dumb, IMO. Seems strange.
    Ferris is trying to throw someone outside of the Athletic department under the bus. Truth is that Ferris has a paid staff member who is the coordinator of athletic eligibility- it would be her job to catch this. They also have a compliance coordinator - ultimately it would be her job too.

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    Default Re: Week 7 - Composite Rankings and MIAA in regional hotseat?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ian Carlson View Post
    person who made the error wasn’t affiliated with the athletic department. If that is indeed the case, that is just plain dumb, IMO. Seems strange.
    Is that person an employee of Ferris St. (because that'd be dumb to have somebody not affiliated with your athletic department making decisions) or is that person an employee of one of the other schools, Kent, or Michigan that gave bad information they followed?

    Transfer clarification - I always thought if you dropped down a level you didn't have to sit out, or is it because he didn't sit out when he went from Michigan to Kent St. thus when he went to Ferris needed to still sit out; and is the confusion because he changed sports?

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