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Thread: NSIC Pick'Em Week #8 - Chat

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    Default NSIC Pick'Em Week #8 - Chat

    Lots of games that could be close this week. Not as clear-cut as last week (or at least as last week seemed to be when making picks.)

    Minnesota Crookston @ Concordia-St. Paul - After seeing Concordia the first few weeks of the year I had high hopes for them. Then for whatever reason they seem to have taken a step backwards. I fully expected them to dominate Mary last Saturday, but that didn't happen. Crookston is looking for their second win of the season and they may see this week as an opportunity for them to pull an upset. I'm not enough of a gambler to say for sure that will happen, so I'm going to go with the safe pick.

    U-Mary @ Augustana - I don't see this one being close. I think Augie's defense will score early and often. Vikings win by at least three scores.

    Minnesota State @ Bemidji State - Will Bemidji be deflated after last week's loss to UIU? Or will they use that as the motivation they need to take down the top team in the conference? On paper this should be a pretty good game. Once again, though, I'm going to go with the save pick with Mankato. Until some team finally takes them down I'm not sure it would be prudent in the Pick'Em contest to pick against them.

    Wayne State @ Minot State - Long road trip for the Wildcats, but I don't think it will affect their ability to come back home with a win. Minot has some good things happening, but they just need more time to develop the program.

    Minnesota Duluth @ Winona State - Admittedly, with what looks like the loss of Duluth's starting QB Larson and one of their best defensive players in Balts, this game appears to have gotten a lot more competitive. The Bulldogs are pretty deep, so the impact should be minimal but there's no denying there will be an impact. On the other side, Winona is in a similar situation having lost some key players earlier this season. I really feel like Winona has a shot at taking down Duluth this weekend. But like I said with 'Kato, until someone does I'm not going to pick against them.

    Upper Iowa @ St. Cloud State - Who is Upper Iowa this year? I can't figure them out. I got a chance to see St. Cloud in person last weekend and I was quite impressed with both sides of the line. They're a very physical team. I think they can cause the Peacocks some issues. But then again, I've missed picking the Peacocks correclty most of the year, so what do I know?

    Sioux Falls @ MSU Moorhead - As a USF fan, 4-3 is not where I figured we would be at this point in the season. To make matters worse, the three losses were by a combined 7 points, and all losses could probably be pointed back to mistakes made by the Cougars more so than getting outplayed. It's not fun when other teams beat your team, but it's even tougher when your own team beats themselves. Moorhead has had a good season so far and this looks like another tough outing for the Coo. I'm hoping they can clean up the errors they've been making the last couple weeks and get back to looking like the inspired team that took down Augie and Minot. Our playoff hopes are pretty much gone, along with a shot at the MWB. The only thing I'm hoping for at this point is that we can take 2 of the next four games and extend our winning season streak to 25. Both teams have a better rushing attack, and both teams are better at defending the run. It will be interesting to see if either team (or both) switches things around in an attempt to exploit the weakness of the opposition? Or will this just be a ground and pound clock burner that's over in 2 hours? If it goes mostly ground and pound then I have to pick USF due to the 1-2 punch of Gabe Watson and Colton Myles.

    Northern State @ Southwest Minnesota State - Tough pick. I really could see this one going either way. I figure playing at home gives a slight advantage so I'm going with the Mustangs. But I may come back and change this one before Saturday.

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    Default Re: NSIC Pick'Em Week #8 - Chat

    Duluth’s injuries and Winona getting injured players back certainly makes this a game. It will be close but I picked winona as a upset pick! I personally hope winona wins as their win would be beneficial for the Mavericks to secure that bye assuming they take care of business. A win keeps them in the hunt for the playoffs and a loss knocks them out of the playoffs and maybe MWB.

    Winona St 28 UMD 24

    I originally thought this would be the game of the week but bemidji laid an egg last week. The Mavericks are finding their groove on defense as they’ve done a better job of defending the pass. The beavers aren’t known for throwing the ball around so if the Mavericks can keep their running game in check, then this should be a rather easy win. Nobody has been able to slow down the Mavericks offensive attack (except for 1st half winona st.) as they’re averaging almost 45 PPG. I’m confident with my pick.

    Mavericks 35 Beavers 20

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    Default Re: NSIC Pick'Em Week #8 - Chat

    Minnesota Crookston @ Concordia-St. Paul – Assuming the Golden Eagles have Jalin Scott at QB despite the nagging injuries and the Defensive line can stop the inside zone attack of CSP, I could see UMC coming out with this one and grabbing their second win. I do not think the passing attack of CSP is enough to win if they cannot establish the run game. UMC (-1.5)

    U-Mary @ Augustana – Not much to say here, I just don’t think there is an underdog chance here. AU (-21)

    #1 Minnesota State Mankato @ Bemidji State – This might be closer than some may think, BSU isn’t thrilled about last week’s loss to UIU and from what I imagine their coaching staff is probably riding them hard this week and reestablishing discipline and getting these guys ready to roll. Still though after watching tape of both, The Mavericks are still winning this one. MSUM (-6)

    Wayne State @ Minot State – Beavers come out hot with a nice aerial attack with Ben Bolinske. The Wildcats come out flat after a long trip and thus far slow season. Beavers grab a nice victory at home. MiSU (-2)

    #5 Minnesota Duluth @ Winona State – Lost the QB to a leg injury and Balts also out with the ACL, there are going to be some growing pains that I am sure they are working out this week in practice. They will be more than likely going with #8 Rybarczyk a junior out of Illinois. Only a handful of passes this year but I am sure he has been taking second team reps all year and will be ready. *My Game of the Week* UMD (-3)

    Upper Iowa @ St. Cloud State – Not entirely sure about this one. But with St. Cloud coming off a win against USF and a two game winning streak they are going to come in hot. QB Lawhorn for SCSU is even more legit in person and I have no doubt that he is going to play a crisp game at home after a 20/32 for 238 and 3 TD performance with no INTs. Plus UIU is 1-2 on the road with their one win coming against Minot, I just don’t see the peacocks grabbing this one. SCSU (-2.5)

    Sioux Falls @ Minnesota State Moorhead – Moorhead may be an attractive pick here as they are 5-2 on the year and their two losses are Duluth and Mankato. Although I think behind Watson and Walters USF is going to play some OG Coo football and they are going to look how I thought they were all year. I have them by atleast a TD. USF (-6)

    Northern State @ Southwest Minnesota State – SMSU is at home and they will recognizing their seniors, so I am sure they are going to be emotional (although it is not their last home game) and they are going to play hard. BUT the O Line continues to be a major weak point as they allowed 3 sacks last week against UMD, making that 24 on the year. Gimbel also threw two INTs last week. NSU (-3)

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    Default Re: NSIC Pick'Em Week #8 - Chat

    Quote Originally Posted by CrookstonsFinest View Post
    Minnesota Crookston @ Concordia-St. Paul – Assuming the Golden Eagles have Jalin Scott at QB despite the nagging injuries and the Defensive line can stop the inside zone attack of CSP, I could see UMC coming out with this one and grabbing their second win. I do not think the passing attack of CSP is enough to win if they cannot establish the run game. UMC (-1.5)

    U-Mary @ Augustana – Not much to say here, I just don’t think there is an underdog chance here. AU (-21)

    #1 Minnesota State Mankato @ Bemidji State – This might be closer than some may think, BSU isn’t thrilled about last week’s loss to UIU and from what I imagine their coaching staff is probably riding them hard this week and reestablishing discipline and getting these guys ready to roll. Still though after watching tape of both, The Mavericks are still winning this one. MSUM (-6)

    Wayne State @ Minot State – Beavers come out hot with a nice aerial attack with Ben Bolinske. The Wildcats come out flat after a long trip and thus far slow season. Beavers grab a nice victory at home. MiSU (-2)

    #5 Minnesota Duluth @ Winona State – Lost the QB to a leg injury and Balts also out with the ACL, there are going to be some growing pains that I am sure they are working out this week in practice. They will be more than likely going with #8 Rybarczyk a junior out of Illinois. Only a handful of passes this year but I am sure he has been taking second team reps all year and will be ready. *My Game of the Week* UMD (-3)

    Upper Iowa @ St. Cloud State – Not entirely sure about this one. But with St. Cloud coming off a win against USF and a two game winning streak they are going to come in hot. QB Lawhorn for SCSU is even more legit in person and I have no doubt that he is going to play a crisp game at home after a 20/32 for 238 and 3 TD performance with no INTs. Plus UIU is 1-2 on the road with their one win coming against Minot, I just don’t see the peacocks grabbing this one. SCSU (-2.5)

    Sioux Falls @ Minnesota State Moorhead – Moorhead may be an attractive pick here as they are 5-2 on the year and their two losses are Duluth and Mankato. Although I think behind Watson and Walters USF is going to play some OG Coo football and they are going to look how I thought they were all year. I have them by atleast a TD. USF (-6)

    Northern State @ Southwest Minnesota State – SMSU is at home and they will recognizing their seniors, so I am sure they are going to be emotional (although it is not their last home game) and they are going to play hard. BUT the O Line continues to be a major weak point as they allowed 3 sacks last week against UMD, making that 24 on the year. Gimbel also threw two INTs last week. NSU (-3)
    Welcome to the board CrookstonsFinest! Good to have more fans on here, especially from Crookston who are underrepresented.

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    Default Re: NSIC Pick'Em Week #8 - Chat

    Thank you! I will be a weekly contributor from here on out.

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    Default Re: NSIC Pick'Em Week #8 - Chat

    Quote Originally Posted by CrookstonsFinest View Post
    Thank you! I will be a weekly contributor from here on out.
    Awesome. Looking forward to hearing your thoughts.

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    Default Re: NSIC Pick'Em Week #8 - Chat

    Quote Originally Posted by CrookstonsFinest View Post
    Minnesota Crookston @ Concordia-St. Paul – Assuming the Golden Eagles have Jalin Scott at QB despite the nagging injuries and the Defensive line can stop the inside zone attack of CSP, I could see UMC coming out with this one and grabbing their second win. I do not think the passing attack of CSP is enough to win if they cannot establish the run game. UMC (-1.5)

    U-Mary @ Augustana – Not much to say here, I just don’t think there is an underdog chance here. AU (-21)

    #1 Minnesota State Mankato @ Bemidji State – This might be closer than some may think, BSU isn’t thrilled about last week’s loss to UIU and from what I imagine their coaching staff is probably riding them hard this week and reestablishing discipline and getting these guys ready to roll. Still though after watching tape of both, The Mavericks are still winning this one. MSUM (-6)

    Wayne State @ Minot State – Beavers come out hot with a nice aerial attack with Ben Bolinske. The Wildcats come out flat after a long trip and thus far slow season. Beavers grab a nice victory at home. MiSU (-2)

    #5 Minnesota Duluth @ Winona State – Lost the QB to a leg injury and Balts also out with the ACL, there are going to be some growing pains that I am sure they are working out this week in practice. They will be more than likely going with #8 Rybarczyk a junior out of Illinois. Only a handful of passes this year but I am sure he has been taking second team reps all year and will be ready. *My Game of the Week* UMD (-3)

    Upper Iowa @ St. Cloud State – Not entirely sure about this one. But with St. Cloud coming off a win against USF and a two game winning streak they are going to come in hot. QB Lawhorn for SCSU is even more legit in person and I have no doubt that he is going to play a crisp game at home after a 20/32 for 238 and 3 TD performance with no INTs. Plus UIU is 1-2 on the road with their one win coming against Minot, I just don’t see the peacocks grabbing this one. SCSU (-2.5)

    Sioux Falls @ Minnesota State Moorhead – Moorhead may be an attractive pick here as they are 5-2 on the year and their two losses are Duluth and Mankato. Although I think behind Watson and Walters USF is going to play some OG Coo football and they are going to look how I thought they were all year. I have them by atleast a TD. USF (-6)

    Northern State @ Southwest Minnesota State – SMSU is at home and they will recognizing their seniors, so I am sure they are going to be emotional (although it is not their last home game) and they are going to play hard. BUT the O Line continues to be a major weak point as they allowed 3 sacks last week against UMD, making that 24 on the year. Gimbel also threw two INTs last week. NSU (-3)
    Welcome to the board! We need more crookston posters!!

  8. #8

    Default Re: NSIC Pick'Em Week #8 - Chat

    Minnesota-Crookston at Concordia-St. Paul - Concordia and not close Bears win 44-7

    Mary at Augustana - not close 57-0

    Minnesota State-Mankato at Bemidji State - close for awhile. Surprising loss by Bemidji last week. I still think they are good. But Mankato is the class of the league and a national title contender. Mavs win 34-14

    Wayne State at Minot State - down to the wire - huge game for both schools. Got to think the Beavers have this one down to get their season going before a chance for a couple wins against the North. I just think Wayne is better right now though. Cats win 21-17

    Minnesota-Duluth at Winona State - UMD didn't lose much with the backup QB . Also very good. But this game is much bigger for Winona. They way it looks, this is a must win for Winona and UMD can still go 10-1 even if they lose this one. So, I am going with Winona is a great game 37-34. back and forth a crazy for sure.

    Upper Iowa at St. Cloud - just an upset hunch here. But let's be honest. There isn't a person following the NSIC that can possibly know what Peacock team will show up. For the past 7-8 years they have been the most Jekyl and Hyde team around and this year is no different. Peacocks win 31-28

    Sioux Falls at Minnesota State-Moorhead - not close - Coo wins 54-17

    Northern State at Southwest Minnesota State - SMSU defense is actually ok. Had 6 sacks against UMD. I think they are a little better than Northern. These games are typically close and I think that follows suit again this year. Big game for both schools if they want to get to a winning record. Mustangs win 44-41 - Gimbel with 5 td passes to Daniel Davis

  9. #9

    Default Re: NSIC Pick'Em Week #8 - Chat

    As I recall, UMD’s backup QB was ahead of Larson on the depth chart at the beginning of 2017 and got some playing time last season. Balts has been out since, I think, week 2, they just confirmed he is out for the season this week. The ‘Dogs have already adjusted to his absence on offense.

  10. Default Re: NSIC Pick'Em Week #8 - Chat

    Quote Originally Posted by HumRsky View Post
    As I recall, UMD’s backup QB was ahead of Larson on the depth chart at the beginning of 2017 and got some playing time last season. Balts has been out since, I think, week 2, they just confirmed he is out for the season this week. The ‘Dogs have already adjusted to his absence on offense.
    Yes, Rybarczyk started the first two games in 2017 before getting hurt, was out for the rest of the season. (Larson also got hurt in the week 2 game)
    Ben Everhart started weeks 3-6 and got hurt in week 6 (coming back for the last game and playoff game). Larson started from game 7 on last year and the first 7 this year.
    Balts tore his ACL in the win over Bemidji in week 4, he waited to have ACL surgery until last week, so they have been without him the last 3 weeks.
    Next man up at the QB position has been the norm for the Dogs the last 1.5 years : )

  11. Default Re: NSIC Pick'Em Week #8 - Chat

    Do statistics reflect Good/Bad football? Some would say yes/others would say no:
    Three coaching staff associated with the following offensive statistics since Minot transitioned to D-2: Coach Rudolph/Coach Hughes/Coach Aldrich

    Passing Yards: #8 in NSIC 217 AVG Yds Per Game
    Rushing Yards: #15 in NSIC 79 Avg Yds Per Game
    Total Off Yards: #13 in NSIC 297 Avg Yds Per Game

    Passing Yards: #13 in NSIC 179 Avg Yds per Game
    Rushing Yards: #15 in NSIC 109 Avg Yds per Game
    Total Off Yards: #15 in NSIC 288 Avg Yds Per Game

    Passing Yards: #11 in NSIC 213 Avg Yds Per Game
    Rushing Yards: #16 in NSIC 54 Avg Yds per game
    Total Off Yards: #15 in NSIC 267 Avg Yds per game

    Passing Yards: #16 in NSIC 142 Avg Yds per Game
    Rushing Yards: #12 in NSIC 111 Avg Yds per game
    Total Off Yards: #16 in NSIC 254 Avg Yds per game

    Passing Yards: #12 in NSIC 191 Avg Yds per game
    Rushing Yards: #15 in NSIC 91 Avg Yds per game
    Total Off Yards: #15 in NSIC 282 Avg Yds per Game

    One of the above are the statistical offensive numbers is for this season---so obviously those can still improve/change.
    Obviously, there are more to these numbers and it becomes difficult or fair to compare. But, it still is fun to compare the three different offensive approaches/recruiting approaches and how they impacted offensive output.
    The following variables impact the statistics: difference in the number of scholarships each coach had, facilities that each coach had to recruit and utilize, experience of skilled positions/teams.---so they are not all the same. Will not tag the coaching staffs associated with each---but interesting to see different recruiting philosophies, different offensive schemes and the differences or similarities in the offensive output

    Think that this weeks game against Wayne is very big for Minot; considering the remaining schedule. They need the win to salvage a little positive momentum for the remainder of the schedule. If they do not win--it could be a tough remainder of the schedule.
    Last edited by MSUBeaverFan; 10-21-2018 at 05:05 PM. Reason: updated stats

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    Default Re: NSIC Pick'Em Week #8 - Chat

    http://www.d2messageboard.com/entry.php?b=2292

    I was expecting a little more differences of opinion....but it looks like most were a bit apprehensive to pull the trigger with Bemidji, Winona, and Moorhead. All should be very good games.

    My son (5th grade) has a regional flag football tournament in Minnetonka (at the HS, outside) that I will be coaching in....so I will be away from NSIC action until I return Sunday. There are teams from Aberdeen-SD, Iowa, MN, and WI....will be fun..but high of 38, with 20 mph winds. Hopefully I wont blow away..

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    Default Re: NSIC Pick'Em Week #8 - Chat

    Quote Originally Posted by Matt Witwicki View Post
    http://www.d2messageboard.com/entry.php?b=2292

    I was expecting a little more differences of opinion....but it looks like most were a bit apprehensive to pull the trigger with Bemidji, Winona, and Moorhead. All should be very good games.

    My son (5th grade) has a regional flag football tournament in Minnetonka (at the HS, outside) that I will be coaching in....so I will be away from NSIC action until I return Sunday. There are teams from Aberdeen-SD, Iowa, MN, and WI....will be fun..but high of 38, with 20 mph winds. Hopefully I wont blow away..
    Thanks again for all the work you do every week, Witt. We really appreciate it and enjoy reading your thoughts.

    I have to be somewhere at 4 PM tomorrow, and the USF @ Moorhead game starts at 2. I can only watch the first part of the game. With any luck I'll be able to catch most of the last portion on the radio. Hopefully it will be clearly decided in USF's favor by halftime. A long shot, I know, but one can always hope.

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    Default Re: NSIC Pick'Em Week #8 - Chat

    Quote Originally Posted by Matt Witwicki View Post
    My son (5th grade) has a regional flag football tournament in Minnetonka (at the HS, outside) that I will be coaching in....so I will be away from NSIC action until I return Sunday. There are teams from Aberdeen-SD, Iowa, MN, and WI....will be fun..but high of 38, with 20 mph winds. Hopefully I wont blow away..
    Just blow back. It works for me.

    Good luck in the tourney. And don't run up the score too much.

  15. #15

    Default Re: NSIC Pick'Em Week #8 - Chat

    MSUBeaverFan,

    And others would ask, "What's your point?" Would make sense to see where our fortunes either went astray or currently lay. jmo
    Last edited by Clean Liver; 10-19-2018 at 02:12 PM.

  16. #16

    Default Re: NSIC Pick'Em Week #8 - Chat

    Quote Originally Posted by Matt Witwicki View Post
    http://www.d2messageboard.com/entry.php?b=2292

    I was expecting a little more differences of opinion....but it looks like most were a bit apprehensive to pull the trigger with Bemidji, Winona, and Moorhead. All should be very good games.

    My son (5th grade) has a regional flag football tournament in Minnetonka (at the HS, outside) that I will be coaching in....so I will be away from NSIC action until I return Sunday. There are teams from Aberdeen-SD, Iowa, MN, and WI....will be fun..but high of 38, with 20 mph winds. Hopefully I wont blow away..
    I get why people are apprehensive to choose the Dragons. Until they have a "landmark" win, I dont think they'll turn many heads or change people minds on the program. The long stretch of unsuccessful teams through the 2000's and even the first few years Laqua was working to rebrand and rebuild, is what a lot have to go on. This weekend is a great opportunity to change those people's perceptions!

  17. Default Re: NSIC Pick'Em Week #8 - Chat

    Quote Originally Posted by Clean Liver View Post
    MSUBeaverFan,

    And others would ask, "What's your point?" Would make sense to see where our fortunes either went astray or currently lay. jmo
    SHORT ANSWER:
    to compare the three different offensive approaches/recruiting approaches and how they impacted offensive output.
    The following variables impact the statistics: difference in the number of scholarships each coach had, facilities that each coach had to recruit and utilize, experience of skilled positions/teams.---


    3 different coaching staffs, 3 different offensive philosophies, 3 different total scholarship numbers, 3 different stages of facility development and the offensive statistical information from all 3 staffs. Where and what are the differences, similarities, patterns, improvements, regressions---that is what all CEO's/Head Coaches and leadership positions do---review data. Most do not say---well there was nothing here that preceded me in this position and everything started with me. What, if anything, can be learned from those that preceded? Maybe there is nothing to be learned or gained from reviewing statistics---but I believe there is always something to be gained or learned in all situations. You do not have to agree. You could do the same for the defensive side of the ball. To me, the offensive side is more fun and that is the side of the ball that I played on in college.
    Statistics tell the story of a team/program. What that story is or how it is interpreted is up to each individuals perception of the statistics. Statistics tend to take the OPINION out of the discussion and if they are accurate statistics then they are factual information. I also, did the point differential for each year since 2012. Maybe to some--the stats would suggest where it"... went astray or where they lay." I don't believe that is the case. But I think the stats do suggest some information pertaining to improvement, regression, philosophy & schemes.

  18. #18

    Default Re: NSIC Pick'Em Week #8 - Chat

    Quote Originally Posted by Matt Witwicki View Post
    http://www.d2messageboard.com/entry.php?b=2292

    I was expecting a little more differences of opinion....but it looks like most were a bit apprehensive to pull the trigger with Bemidji, Winona, and Moorhead. All should be very good games.

    My son (5th grade) has a regional flag football tournament in Minnetonka (at the HS, outside) that I will be coaching in....so I will be away from NSIC action until I return Sunday. There are teams from Aberdeen-SD, Iowa, MN, and WI....will be fun..but high of 38, with 20 mph winds. Hopefully I wont blow away..
    I'll be interested to hear your thoughts on their facilities at Minnetonka HS when you are back. And how many programs in the NSIC have lesser facilities. Minnetonka has nice toys but aren't even top 3 in their conference.

  19. #19

    Default Re: NSIC Pick'Em Week #8 - Chat

    Quote Originally Posted by MSUBeaverFan View Post
    SHORT ANSWER:
    to compare the three different offensive approaches/recruiting approaches and how they impacted offensive output.
    The following variables impact the statistics: difference in the number of scholarships each coach had, facilities that each coach had to recruit and utilize, experience of skilled positions/teams.---


    3 different coaching staffs, 3 different offensive philosophies, 3 different total scholarship numbers, 3 different stages of facility development and the offensive statistical information from all 3 staffs. Where and what are the differences, similarities, patterns, improvements, regressions---that is what all CEO's/Head Coaches and leadership positions do---review data. Most do not say---well there was nothing here that preceded me in this position and everything started with me. What, if anything, can be learned from those that preceded? Maybe there is nothing to be learned or gained from reviewing statistics---but I believe there is always something to be gained or learned in all situations. You do not have to agree. You could do the same for the defensive side of the ball. To me, the offensive side is more fun and that is the side of the ball that I played on in college.
    Statistics tell the story of a team/program. What that story is or how it is interpreted is up to each individuals perception of the statistics. Statistics tend to take the OPINION out of the discussion and if they are accurate statistics then they are factual information. I also, did the point differential for each year since 2012. Maybe to some--the stats would suggest where it"... went astray or where they lay." I don't believe that is the case. But I think the stats do suggest some information pertaining to improvement, regression, philosophy & schemes.
    Then you should tell us who's who. That would be the most fair thing to do. jmo.

  20. Default Re: NSIC Pick'Em Week #8 - Chat

    Ran into some Duluth players at Kwik Trip tonight. A couple of them were mentioning getting some Dairy Queen not sure I agree with ice cream the night before a game but go wild I suppose.

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