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Thread: MIAA Pick'em Instructions and Other Numbers Nerd Stuff

  1. #1
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    Default MIAA Pick'em Instructions and Other Numbers Nerd Stuff

    Again this season I decided to start a separate thread for the "Pick'em" instructions and the ramblings of the numbers nerd that keeps track of things. I will have additional posts later explaining how we determine the champion, why you have little chance of winning if you miss a week, previous winners and other "number stuff" that I find interesting.

    Last year we had 113 members participate making it 7 consecutive seasons with over 110. (The most ever was 140 in 2012.) With that many folks involved, here are a few things you guys can do for me to make entering the information into my spreadsheet easier:

    1. Please keep the games in the order I post them to start the week's thread.
    2. If you use color to show your picks, also use bold. I usually print the thread (on a black and white printer) to enter the data into my spreadsheet and Red, Green, Blue looks like Red, Green, Blue when I print it if you don't also use bold.
    3. If you decide to change your picks, please add a post to thread telling me you made changes. I sometimes print periodically during the week. (If the thread has moved to a new page since you made your picks, there is a good chance I have printed the page your picks were on.) If you edit a post that has already been printed, I won't know it unless you tell me.
    4. If you go into detail why you made the picks, please list the winners somewhere in the post. That keeps me from having to hunt for your picks.

    I make mistakes so check my work. I'm not offended if you point out my errors. Actually, I get annoyed at myself for screwing up.

    Thanks for your help and good luck.

  2. #2
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    Default Re: MIAA Pick'em Instructions and Other Numbers Nerd Stuff

    I use the "games back" method of determining the leaders which compares how many games above/below .500 everyone is. The champion(s) will be the member(s) who finish the most games over .500.

    You are not eliminated by missing a week but you are likely to lose ground on the field. By going 0-0 you would lose ½ game to anyone going 4-2, 1 game to anyone 5-1 and 1½ game to anyone 6-0. In the past 11 seasons, the favorites have only had a losing week 3 times. In that same time frame the favorites have split the games 8 times. The favorites had a winning record in the other 102 weeks (including 37 perfect weeks and 38 weeks losing only 1).

    We have never had a champion who missed a game and have only had one member finish in the top 10 who missed a game. (Psycho didn't make a call in the Washburn/Lincoln game in 2012 and lost ½ game to the field and finished 8th instead of tying for 5th.)

    Final standings for 2017:
    Code:
    Pos MEMBER                         Week  Overall    %     GB
      1 sozo                            5-1   58-8    87.9    0.0
      2 Psycho                          5-1   57-9    86.4    1.0
      3 bearcat_charlie                 6-0   56-10   84.8    2.0
        FL Bearcat                      5-1   56-10   84.8    2.0
        MEAN GREEN MACHINE              5-1   56-10   84.8    2.0
        Thepeman                        6-0   56-10   84.8    2.0
      7 bearcat1973                     6-0   55-11   83.3    3.0
        FHSUTigersRock                  5-1   55-11   83.3    3.0
        Gorilla Guy                     5-1   55-11   83.3    3.0
        Gorilla John 92                 6-0   55-11   83.3    3.0
        Ian Carlson                     5-1   55-11   83.3    3.0
        NW XCowboy                      5-1   55-11   83.3    3.0
        stubintner                      5-1   55-11   83.3    3.0
     14 1/2Mule1/2Bearcat               6-0   52-8    86.7    3.0
     15 Bodaceous                       6-0   54-12   81.8    4.0
        DoubleG                         5-1   54-12   81.8    4.0
        FlyinLion                       4-2   54-12   81.8    4.0
        IM N GUD H&NZ BEARCAT           5-1   54-12   81.8    4.0
        loper legionnaire               5-1   54-12   81.8    4.0
        Mule Man                        5-1   54-12   81.8    4.0
        NW Normal                       6-0   54-12   81.8    4.0
        OnceaBearcat                    6-0   54-12   81.8    4.0
        Redready                        5-1   54-12   81.8    4.0
        Roll Tiges                      5-1   54-12   81.8    4.0
     25 Erbert                          5-1   53-13   80.3    5.0
        GorillaBred                     6-0   53-13   80.3    5.0
        GorillasAllDay                  5-1   53-13   80.3    5.0
        IowaBearcat                     6-0   53-13   80.3    5.0
        Javabean                        5-1   53-13   80.3    5.0
        Kiss My Ass                     6-0   53-13   80.3    5.0
        mobcat                          5-1   53-13   80.3    5.0
        mulnets                         6-0   53-13   80.3    5.0
        NWFanatic                       4-2   53-13   80.3    5.0
        OICU812                         5-1   53-13   80.3    5.0
        PittStateFootball               6-0   53-13   80.3    5.0
        PSR                             6-0   53-13   80.3    5.0
        Randy                           6-0   53-13   80.3    5.0
        Shanghai Mule                   6-0   53-13   80.3    5.0
     39 catfan4life                     6-0   52-14   78.8    6.0
        cbgorilla                       4-2   52-14   78.8    6.0
        ClayCoCat                       5-1   52-14   78.8    6.0
        ILoveItWhenYouCallMeLittlePoppa 5-1   52-14   78.8    6.0
        kccatfan                        5-1   52-14   78.8    6.0
        Rainy                           5-1   52-14   78.8    6.0
        washeduptiger                   4-2   52-14   78.8    6.0
     46 BearcatDude                     5-1   51-15   77.3    7.0
        Humble Hornet                   6-0   51-15   77.3    7.0
        JurisBearcat                    4-2   51-15   77.3    7.0
        Pep Talk                        5-1   51-15   77.3    7.0
        visionpipe                      4-2   51-15   77.3    7.0
     51 Mulas                           4-2   48-12   80.0    7.0
     52 402Hawkeye                      5-1   50-16   75.8    8.0
        da_miner                        6-0   50-16   75.8    8.0
        indy46173                       6-0   50-16   75.8    8.0
        Micheal                         6-0   50-16   75.8    8.0
        PowerE                          6-0   50-16   75.8    8.0
        ShirtedBearcat                  5-1   50-16   75.8    8.0
        UCObluejay                      6-0   50-16   75.8    8.0
        Wallst                          4-2   50-16   75.8    8.0
     60 Pirate72                        5-1   47-13   78.3    8.0
     61 BearcATC                        0-0   44-10   81.5    8.0
     62 CATALUM                         5-1   49-17   74.2    9.0
        iconions                        5-1   49-17   74.2    9.0
        travtc15                        5-1   49-17   74.2    9.0
        TSU_Mike59                      6-0   49-17   74.2    9.0
     66 BearcatDJ                       0-0   46-14   76.7    9.0
        lopertime                       5-1   46-14   76.7    9.0
     68 GRIFFan_Kyle@MoWest             4-2   48-18   72.7   10.0
        Sac Cat                         6-0   48-18   72.7   10.0
     70 Bearcat_420                     6-0   45-15   75.0   10.0
     71 Papa Bearcat                    5-1   42-12   77.8   10.0
     72 BIG-TOE                         5-1   47-19   71.2   11.0
        GrifFan                         5-1   47-19   71.2   11.0
     74 clintec                         5-1   44-16   73.3   11.0
        GorillaTeacher                  5-1   44-16   73.3   11.0
     76 MERV GRIFFON                    5-1   41-13   75.9   11.0
     77 jayhawkdaddy                    0-0   38-10   79.2   11.0
        lefty439                        0-0   38-10   79.2   11.0
     79 Assassin14                      6-0   43-17   71.7   12.0
     80 Bearcatnation                   0-0   40-14   74.1   12.0
        Football Fan11                  0-0   40-14   74.1   12.0
     82 esufan75                        0-0   37-11   77.1   12.0
     83 ctrabs74                        5-1   45-20   69.2   12.5
     84 hvillecat                       5-1   30-6    83.3   13.0
     85 bigsig50                        4-2   44-22   66.7   14.0
        reloadmvp                       5-1   44-22   66.7   14.0
     87 backintheday                    0-0   32-10   76.2   14.0
     88 Predatory Primates              0-0   31-11   73.8   15.0
        slack81                         0-0   31-11   73.8   15.0
     90 loper11                         4-2   42-24   63.6   16.0
     91 Bigbadbod                       4-2   41-25   62.1   17.0
     92 HookemHerd                      0-0   25-11   69.4   18.0
     93 BartonTiger                     6-0   22-8    73.3   18.0
     94 Go-Rilla                        0-0   19-5    79.2   18.0
     95 NewCatEyez                      0-0   16-2    88.9   18.0
     96 Tom Brady's ball pump           0-0   18-5    78.3   18.5
     97 JR Chaney                       0-0   15-3    83.3   19.0
        JuicedMule                      0-0   15-3    83.3   19.0
        Noroeste Oso de Gatos           0-0   15-3    83.3   19.0
    100 ChoTalk                         0-0   17-7    70.8   20.0
    101 ESUfan620                       0-0   13-5    72.2   21.0
    102 NW3535                          0-0    9-3    75.0   22.0
    103 bobcat                          0-0    8-4    66.7   23.0
        Gorillahawk                     0-0    8-4    66.7   23.0
        MOSO27                          0-0    8-4    66.7   23.0
    106 Fan1                            5-1    5-1    83.3   23.0
    107 GostateESU                      0-0   13-11   54.2   24.0
    108 Bearcat fanatic                 0-0    7-5    58.3   24.0
    109 BEARCAT                         0-0    4-2    66.7   24.0
        Bulldog                         0-0    4-2    66.7   24.0
        Peyton21dad                     0-0    4-2    66.7   24.0
        Try II                          0-0    4-2    66.7   24.0
    113 ESUyouknowwhattodo              0-0    2-4    33.3   26.0

  3. #3
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    Default Re: MIAA Pick'em Instructions and Other Numbers Nerd Stuff

    Previous Champions
    2017 - sozo
    2016 - GoCatsGo5
    2015 - ILoveItWhenYouCallMeLittlePoppa, Randy & Scratch
    2014 - mowest57
    2013 - bearcat42, loper legionnaire & MEAN GREEN MACHINE
    2012 - backintheday, GRIFFan_Kyle@MoWest & PowerE
    2011 - mobcat
    2010 - bearcat42, bercat & Shocker
    2009 - nwcritter & ptpalms
    2008 - Bearcat_420 & Randy
    2007 - Ichabod Washburn (best ever record of 42-3)
    2006 - Ichabod99
    2005 - GorillaGuy & Ichabod99
    2004 - Nirvana4286
    2003 - PSR
    2002 - Randy

    Last season sozo became the 20th different champion (co-champion) out of 27 total.

    Ichabod Washburn won 93% of his picks in 2007 and bearcat42 finished 1 game back and won 91%. They are the only 90% finishes we have had.

    In 2014 mowest57 was the first champion to beat the field by more than 1 game (won by 2 games). He had a game lead the final week and those a game back took upsets that didn't pan out. In 2016 GoCatsGo5 became the second champion to win by 2 games. He had a 2 game lead after week 9 and the favorites went 12-0 in the final 2 weeks.

    In 2008, Brandon complimented me on my co-championship. The top 13 finishers that season were 12 Bearcat fans (NW went 9-0) and me (CM was 5-4). He said he thought it was more impressive when the champion is a fan of a team that doesn't win all (or almost all) of their games. Since then I have kept track of how the favorite team of our champions has done that season. All but 7 of the above mentioned names are fans of teams that won the MIAA or finished within a game of first place. Those 7 are:

    6½ back - loper legionnaire (NK) 2013
    4 back - Randy (CM) 2008
    3 back - Ichabod99 (WU) 2006, mowest57 (MW) 2014, Randy (CM) 2015 & Scratch (FH) 2015
    2 back - Ichabod Washburn (WU) 2007

  4. #4
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    Default Re: MIAA Pick'em Instructions and Other Numbers Nerd Stuff

    My 2008 split is still one of the greatest achievements of my life.

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    Default

    As always, Randy, thanks for all your hard work and sharing the number nerd stuff.

  6. #6
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    Default Re: MIAA Pick'em Instructions and Other Numbers Nerd Stuff

    What's the deadline to submit picks each week?

  7. #7
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    Default Re: MIAA Pick'em Instructions and Other Numbers Nerd Stuff

    The pick for a game needs to be posted by the time that game starts. Most call all 6 games in the same post so they would need to be in by the time the first game starts. But we have also had members call the early start time games in one post and the later games in another. I don't care as long the game hasn't started when the call is made.

    If someone makes all 6 calls after one or more of the games have started, the calls on the already started games are thrown out. The calls on any games that had not started will be counted.

  8. #8
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    Default Re: MIAA Pick'em Instructions and Other Numbers Nerd Stuff

    Hey Number nerds, we should try and implement some sort of ranking system like ELO to do forecasting and see who can beat that as well.

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