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Thread: OOC 2017 and beyond

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    Default OOC 2017 and beyond

    Obviously most of the posters on this board believe the GLIAC has consistently been one of the deepest conferences in all of D2. Looking at the talent around the league going into 2017, even with the cut down in number of teams (and probably even because of it), top to bottom the GLIAC is THE premier conference in the country this year. That being said, with each team having the opportunity for two OOC games, I was kind of hoping to see more marquee matchups OOC across the league. This would certainly help get three GLIAC teams in come playoff time with the increased SOS across the conference. The Eagles have a good one week one against IUP, but other than that it looks like mostly cupcakes and matchups against former GLIAC schools that have scampered out for easier pastures. In the coming years do you think we'll see better games with more of the top PSAC schools and maybe even some MIAA, NSIC, and GSC games thrown in?

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    Default Re: OOC 2017 and beyond

    Quote Originally Posted by ashlandalum03 View Post
    Obviously most of the posters on this board believe the GLIAC has consistently been one of the deepest conferences in all of D2. Looking at the talent around the league going into 2017, even with the cut down in number of teams (and probably even because of it), top to bottom the GLIAC is THE premier conference in the country this year. That being said, with each team having the opportunity for two OOC games, I was kind of hoping to see more marquee matchups OOC across the league. This would certainly help get three GLIAC teams in come playoff time with the increased SOS across the conference. The Eagles have a good one week one against IUP, but other than that it looks like mostly cupcakes and matchups against former GLIAC schools that have scampered out for easier pastures. In the coming years do you think we'll see better games with more of the top PSAC schools and maybe even some MIAA, NSIC, and GSC games thrown in?
    Gosh, Alum...I hope so. I'm with you that would be cool.

    With that said, I think we need to be realistic about it...not everyone is going to pony-up to play elite schools, and a lot of the games will continue "traditional" rivalries and leverage semi-convenient geography. Plus, to be honest, one could make the case that the SOS argument is enhanced if GLIAC schools play patsies. Look at it this way...looking ahead to 2018 when there are nine GLIAC schools, let's presume each plays two OOC games against DII opponents. If the league goes 12-6 in those games, the immediate impact on the SOS of the league's teams is better than if they "play better teams" but go 9-9 or 8-10. Yes, your "opponents' opponents' SOS" gets improved, but that is secondary to your own SOS. So, if the league has three to five more "direct wins" in the totals for SOS, it has a greater impact than the value of "who your opponents played".

    It's the old NCC conundrum...North Dakota used to always have a great SOS, but it was because the crappy teams in the NCC would beat up on the (then) lousy teams in the NSIC in OOC games. Their SOS #'s looked better than ours did, even though we were playing a "tougher" schedule with ten in-league games. Your #'s always look better when the last place team in your league still has two or three, or sometimes even four wins on their record...doesn't matter how crummy the teams were that those wins came against.

    So, while I think it's cool that Ashland is playing IUP, and Grand Valley starts a HOH with Delta State next year, the idea that those games "improve" a playoff resume more than all of your league's opponents having an extra win or two isn't necessarily the case. AND, even if it were the case, think of a win over Findlay...traditionally they're around .500 in our league...now all of a sudden they should be a seven win team pretty much every year in that other league...you're getting the same net benefit of playing a "marquee" school, and frankly it could be even more of a benefit.

    The thing to remember is that SOS is a math problem that resides within a single season. Ashland plays IUP this year and that sounds neat. What happens if IUP goes 6-5, and Ashland could have played, say, SW Baptist? Sure SWB isn't "marquee", but if they go 8-3 that's better for AU than playing IUP (or any team) that goes 6-5.

    So, in summary, while I am absolutely a fan of the cool-factor of this, I would submit that the math may not add up to be all that favorable if everyone goes out and schedules "marquee" games. Wins against DII teams overall will benefit the league's records and resumes. I would contend that "who those wins come against" is important, but not necessarily more important that the wins themselves.

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    Default Re: OOC 2017 and beyond

    Tony, do out of region games figure in to the SOS? They likely do for the semi's, but I didn't think they did in the region. And then, there may be some exception if they are in an adjacent state, though I'm not sure that is still in play. And then is it adjacent to the conference or the playing teams?

    Eh, may not matter with the MIAA playing zero OOC games.

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    Default Re: OOC 2017 and beyond

    Quote Originally Posted by Redwing View Post
    Tony, do out of region games figure in to the SOS? They likely do for the semi's, but I didn't think they did in the region. And then, there may be some exception if they are in an adjacent state, though I'm not sure that is still in play. And then is it adjacent to the conference or the playing teams?

    Eh, may not matter with the MIAA playing zero OOC games.
    Great question.

    While I'm not an expert on this, the way I understand it this:

    - ALL DII opponents count for your raw SOS (any NON-DII games do NOT count in your SOS).

    - Wins count, and they count under two separate criteria categories:
    - DII in-region win %
    - DII win % (regardless of region)

    - Another criteria they "can" consider is "in-region won-loss record".


    Now, the handbook says that these (and all of the other primary selection criteria) are applied "in no particular order". That said, in-region games do seem to carry some sort of "weight", but since each committee applies the criteria as they see fit and it's never made public, we're left to speculate as to the exact specifics of that "weight".

    Now, as for what would constitute and "in-region" game, for the sake of this conversation let's stick to the GLIAC. Any game against a team that belongs to any of the four conferences in our region is considered "in-region". Yes, starting with the obvious...ha ha. From there, for the GLIAC, I believe (so don't quote me on this) that it's any state that is adjacent to the conference footprint. So, if a GLIAC team were to play a team that is from a state that is adjacent to the states in the GLIAC but is not already in our region, then it would count as in-region. That boils down to teams from: Wisconsin, Kentucky, Ohio, and Pennsylvania by my reckoning (presuming all Indiana schools are in the GLVC, making them automatically "in-region").

    So, I would need someone smarter than I (hoping Brandon or Bob or Ian or someone of that ilk chimes in) to confirm it, but I believe that any game against a G-MAC school and nearly all of the PSAC would count as "in-region". Since I know you're a GV guy, the games against UIndy and Truman both count since they are actually in our region. With a quick glance, the only non-region game I can find on GLIAC schedules for the year is Northern at Angelo.

    Again, I'm not 100% on the "in-region" piece, but I'm pretty confident it's close. I'll see if I can actually find the specifics somewhere...or someone can verify before I manage to pull that off.

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    Default Re: OOC 2017 and beyond

    I think you what you posted is right. BUT, in light of all the info you presented, last year, the comm. threw most of it out for the region with the MIAA since they didn't play OOC (maybe there was another conf in that region that only played in conf too??) Anyway, so even with the handbook, the regional comm took their own tack on the seeding. Now with the change in regions this year, who knows what we'll get. Should be interesting.

    And thanks for the info!!!!

  6. Default Re: OOC 2017 and beyond

    Thanks for all the info Tony, that was definitely enlightening and I stand corrected.

    I guess you're right, the best strategy would probably be to schedule the creams of the crop from patsie leagues with good win loss records but horrible rosters. That shouldn't be the case, and I wish the formula could be changed to encourage the big boys to play each other OOC.

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    Default Re: OOC 2017 and beyond

    Quote Originally Posted by Tony Nicolette View Post
    What happens if IUP goes 6-5
    I just spilled my coffee!!!!! (but I get what you are saying...just having some fun with it).

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    Default Re: OOC 2017 and beyond

    Quote Originally Posted by IUPAlumn91 View Post
    I just spilled my coffee!!!!! (but I get what you are saying...just having some fun with it).
    LOL...yeah...should have put in there some sort of "this is not an endorsement or a an indicator of future results" or some sort of legal nonsense. I saddled you guys with that strictly for the purposes of illustration. Your club's falling on the sword for the purposes of my demonstration is admirable.

    While I hold no official opinion on IUP and their prospects for this year, my hunch is that odds favor their finishing better than 6-5. Believe me, 91, anyone who takes my predictions as gospel does so at their own risk anyway...

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    Default Re: OOC 2017 and beyond

    Quote Originally Posted by ashlandalum03 View Post
    Thanks for all the info Tony, that was definitely enlightening and I stand corrected.

    I guess you're right, the best strategy would probably be to schedule the creams of the crop from patsie leagues with good win loss records but horrible rosters. That shouldn't be the case, and I wish the formula could be changed to encourage the big boys to play each other OOC.
    My pleasure, Alum. And understand, my intent was in no way to "correct" you. Simply to offer another line of thought. RW said it best in his post that the committee can find a way to "massage" things if they so desire, so all of the crap both of us are saying may be for naught anyway. BUT, if we look at what the handbook calls for and how things have panned out of the GLIAC in recent years, having more wins vs. DII opponents (regardless of THEIR opponents records) has proven favorable.

    At the end of the day, your statement that I highlighted is where I stand as well: It would be great if the criteria was more favorable to teams that found ways to take the risk of playing what should be a tougher opponent. I mean, GV got helped by Truman last year...who would have thought going into they year they'd have been 8-3? Sometimes, there is just a crap-shoot element to it too. Tech going 4-6 last year hurt some teams that who thought that they might help them. BUT, at the end of the day I'm with you that there should be some sort of "bonus" of sorts for trying to play tough teams. I'm not smart enough to suggest how that might work, but I sure like the idea.

    SO, now that the GLIAC is a true, full, round-robin, the math is pretty simple: everyone will have a # from within the league that is going to be at or very near .500. There is no escape from that. (BTW, if I'm Ashland I'm good with this...having to play Walsh, Malone and Lake Erie every year no matter what was an automatic hit to your SOS that was nearly impossible to overcome...now you KNOW that you're league SOS is going to be around .500, not almost guaranteed to be in the low to mid .400's like it was in recent years.) From there, I count 16 games that league teams will be playing against DII opponents this year. If we can muster at least 10-6, than it is almost guaranteed that everyone's SOS will be over .500 and safely so. I'd take that going into the end of the year, vs. hoping to all heck that our teams "get help" from other clubs losing around the region and whatnot.

    Again, this illustrates one of the key struggles of the current system. The insular scheduling of the MIAA ensures that their teams will all have relatively the same SOS #'s. NW (or anyone else for that matter) could be worldbeaters, or they could be a bunch of luck-boxes skating by every week...there's simply no way to know based strictly on the raw SOS #'s.

    BUT, it is what is at this point. We all know it going in, so we adapt and try and get things as strong as we can from there. I would submit that the GLIAC has a chance to have a SOS advantage over the MIAA and GAC going into the playoffs if we handle our biz non-league. Whether the committee puts any emphasis on that or not will remain to be seen, but given what we know it's something we can at least have in our pockets on some level heading into the post season.

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    Default Re: OOC 2017 and beyond

    Quote Originally Posted by Tony Nicolette View Post
    My pleasure, Alum. And understand, my intent was in no way to "correct" you. Simply to offer another line of thought. RW said it best in his post that the committee can find a way to "massage" things if they so desire, so all of the crap both of us are saying may be for naught anyway. BUT, if we look at what the handbook calls for and how things have panned out of the GLIAC in recent years, having more wins vs. DII opponents (regardless of THEIR opponents records) has proven favorable.

    At the end of the day, your statement that I highlighted is where I stand as well: It would be great if the criteria was more favorable to teams that found ways to take the risk of playing what should be a tougher opponent. I mean, GV got helped by Truman last year...who would have thought going into they year they'd have been 8-3? Sometimes, there is just a crap-shoot element to it too. Tech going 4-6 last year hurt some teams that who thought that they might help them. BUT, at the end of the day I'm with you that there should be some sort of "bonus" of sorts for trying to play tough teams. I'm not smart enough to suggest how that might work, but I sure like the idea.

    SO, now that the GLIAC is a true, full, round-robin, the math is pretty simple: everyone will have a # from within the league that is going to be at or very near .500. There is no escape from that. (BTW, if I'm Ashland I'm good with this...having to play Walsh, Malone and Lake Erie every year no matter what was an automatic hit to your SOS that was nearly impossible to overcome...now you KNOW that you're league SOS is going to be around .500, not almost guaranteed to be in the low to mid .400's like it was in recent years.) From there, I count 16 games that league teams will be playing against DII opponents this year. If we can muster at least 10-6, than it is almost guaranteed that everyone's SOS will be over .500 and safely so. I'd take that going into the end of the year, vs. hoping to all heck that our teams "get help" from other clubs losing around the region and whatnot.

    Again, this illustrates one of the key struggles of the current system. The insular scheduling of the MIAA ensures that their teams will all have relatively the same SOS #'s. NW (or anyone else for that matter) could be worldbeaters, or they could be a bunch of luck-boxes skating by every week...there's simply no way to know based strictly on the raw SOS #'s.

    BUT, it is what is at this point. We all know it going in, so we adapt and try and get things as strong as we can from there. I would submit that the GLIAC has a chance to have a SOS advantage over the MIAA and GAC going into the playoffs if we handle our biz non-league. Whether the committee puts any emphasis on that or not will remain to be seen, but given what we know it's something we can at least have in our pockets on some level heading into the post season.
    GV has been very good with targeting those schools who in the future, when the game comes, tend to put up good records. West Texas A&M was already a successful program back in 2009 and 2010, Western Oregon was kind of a "meh" in 11 and 12, but starting in 2013 when GV picked up the new, unproven Azusa Pacific, I think they knew that APU would be able to put up a very good record being already successful in NAIA prior to that, and they did, going 10-2. They added to that with Truman going 7-4 that same year, another team that was already on an upward pace in their conference. They got APU again in 2014 and even though it was a loss, they were helped out by it as APU went 10-1, another gaudy record in a poor conference. Then in '15 they got a dud with SBU, but then got another good record in a weak conference with Truman last year. The NCAA's numbers don't care about your conference strength, they care about numbers only. So the best idea is to single out those "rising" schools in poor conferences and use them to buoy your SOS. That's good business right there!

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    Default Re: OOC 2017 and beyond

    Quote Originally Posted by KleShreen View Post
    GV has been very good with targeting those schools who in the future, when the game comes, tend to put up good records. West Texas A&M was already a successful program back in 2009 and 2010, Western Oregon was kind of a "meh" in 11 and 12, but starting in 2013 when GV picked up the new, unproven Azusa Pacific, I think they knew that APU would be able to put up a very good record being already successful in NAIA prior to that, and they did, going 10-2. They added to that with Truman going 7-4 that same year, another team that was already on an upward pace in their conference. They got APU again in 2014 and even though it was a loss, they were helped out by it as APU went 10-1, another gaudy record in a poor conference. Then in '15 they got a dud with SBU, but then got another good record in a weak conference with Truman last year. The NCAA's numbers don't care about your conference strength, they care about numbers only. So the best idea is to single out those "rising" schools in poor conferences and use them to buoy your SOS. That's good business right there!
    Maybe GV should just go into betting on games, seeing as they have such prescience regarding a team's future outcomes....

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    Default Re: OOC 2017 and beyond

    Quote Originally Posted by Runnin' Cat View Post
    Maybe GV should just go into betting on games, seeing as they have such prescience regarding a team's future outcomes....
    I mean it is easy to see when you sit down and think about it logically. Azusa is in the best recruiting spot of any D-II school in the country, had great success at NAIA, and were going in to an awful conference (sorry).

    Truman was an already solid team that had young good players when they scheduled the games, and some of the better teams in the conference losing their best players was going to spell a little bit of a downfall. Just an upward slope on the bell curve. It is easy to project those things in D2 where you schedule games only one year in advance, maybe two sometimes. Can't really do that in FBS when they're scheduling games 4 and 5 years in advance.

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    Default Re: OOC 2017 and beyond

    Quote Originally Posted by KleShreen View Post
    I mean it is easy to see when you sit down and think about it logically. Azusa is in the best recruiting spot of any D-II school in the country, had great success at NAIA, and were going in to an awful conference (sorry).

    Truman was an already solid team that had young good players when they scheduled the games, and some of the better teams in the conference losing their best players was going to spell a little bit of a downfall. Just an upward slope on the bell curve. It is easy to project those things in D2 where you schedule games only one year in advance, maybe two sometimes. Can't really do that in FBS when they're scheduling games 4 and 5 years in advance.
    I gotta go with Univ West Florida for best DII recruiting spot....

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    Default Re: OOC 2017 and beyond

    Quote Originally Posted by saggydad View Post
    I gotta go with Univ West Florida for best DII recruiting spot....
    Maybe! It'll be interesting to see how they both do going forward.

  15. Default Re: OOC 2017 and beyond

    Quote Originally Posted by ashlandalum03 View Post
    Obviously most of the posters on this board believe the GLIAC has consistently been one of the deepest conferences in all of D2. Looking at the talent around the league going into 2017, even with the cut down in number of teams (and probably even because of it), top to bottom the GLIAC is THE premier conference in the country this year. That being said, with each team having the opportunity for two OOC games, I was kind of hoping to see more marquee matchups OOC across the league. This would certainly help get three GLIAC teams in come playoff time with the increased SOS across the conference. The Eagles have a good one week one against IUP, but other than that it looks like mostly cupcakes and matchups against former GLIAC schools that have scampered out for easier pastures. In the coming years do you think we'll see better games with more of the top PSAC schools and maybe even some MIAA, NSIC, and GSC games thrown in?
    I am not saying East Stroudsburg is a currently a top PSAC school because we have been around .500 the past few years, but they are traveling to Ferris State for the week 1 opener next season. Due to the more opportunity for OOC games in the GLIAC I feel as if we will see more PSAC games.

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    Default Re: OOC 2017 and beyond

    Circling back on this...I was wrong about "in-region" games. Turns out that it is only teams that are in states that are continuous to YOUR STATE...not your LEAGUE'S state. So, for Michigan schools, basically you have the handful of Ohio schools that are now in SR2 that would count and that's about it. Ashland has a TON of options for games (PA, WV, KY, et al) that would count.

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