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Thread: Way-Too-Early 2017-18 NSIC Predictions

  1. #81
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    Default Re: Way-Too-Early 2017-18 NSIC Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by MrAugustana View Post
    My guess is Witthus would have been lingering if he hadn't abandoned the Mavs. Not saying he would have been more deserving than Spencer or Bruggemann, but he would have at least been in the conversation I think.
    Speaking of Witthus, heard this weekend while back in the 'ville, he is legit good and fitting in great.

  2. #82

    Default Re: Way-Too-Early 2017-18 NSIC Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by Moorhead123 View Post
    Kretchman may give Davis a run in the north.
    Remember, we're talking about the PRESEASON awards, which usually are based more on stats than predicted success. Your point may very well be true by the end of the season, but I see less than a 5% chance he's preseason POY unless coaches are turned off by Davis somehow.

  3. Default Re: Way-Too-Early 2017-18 NSIC Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by simple as a $3 bill View Post
    Then change the name of the award. "Best Player on the Top Team" has a nice smooth ring to it. And actually would describe the award better with who received it last year.
    This debate has been going on since beginning of time. Is it the best player (based on individual stats) or best player on best team. Good arguments for each. It typically ends up that an MVP ends up on one of the top teams, unless someone has such an amazing season (i.e., Russell Westbrook last year). Also think it is one of scsu issues is they they seem to run a lot of their offense for/through one or two guys. Gives those guys some nice stats, but not sure it translates to victories the same as a team where 5 guys really involved.

  4. Default Re: Way-Too-Early 2017-18 NSIC Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by Stanger86 View Post
    Remember, we're talking about the PRESEASON awards, which usually are based more on stats than predicted success. Your point may very well be true by the end of the season, but I see less than a 5% chance he's preseason POY unless coaches are turned off by Davis somehow.
    No dispute with that analysis on my end. I have heard rumor that Davis had some off court issues and will miss first 5 games of season. If true that won't help preseason awards for him.

  5. #85

    Default Re: Way-Too-Early 2017-18 NSIC Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by Moorhead123 View Post
    This debate has been going on since beginning of time. Is it the best player (based on individual stats) or best player on best team. Good arguments for each. It typically ends up that an MVP ends up on one of the top teams, unless someone has such an amazing season (i.e., Russell Westbrook last year). Also think it is one of scsu issues is they they seem to run a lot of their offense for/through one or two guys. Gives those guys some nice stats, but not sure it translates to victories the same as a team where 5 guys really involved.
    I've always thought there was a clear difference between MVP and Player of the Year. MVP by definition means the player is valuable. With that in mind, giving it to the best player on one of the best teams makes sense. Giving to a player with great stats on a bad team doesn't make sense because the team didn't achieve so how valuable could the player be.

    Player of the Year seems to me to be the player with the best stats. Nothing in the name of the award mentions being valuable to the team. Just who is the best player based on the stats.

    That is how I've always viewed the difference between the two.

  6. Default Re: Way-Too-Early 2017-18 NSIC Predictions

    [QUOTE=NWHoops;2105064]I've always thought there was a clear difference between MVP and Player of the Year. MVP by definition means the player is valuable. With that in mind, giving it to the best player on one of the best teams makes sense. Giving to a player with great stats on a bad team doesn't make sense because the team didn't achieve so how valuable could the player be.

    Player of the Year seems to me to be the player with the best stats. Nothing in the name of the award mentions being valuable to the team. Just who is the best player based on the stats.

    That is how I've always viewed the difference between the two.[/QUOTE

    Not sure how NSIC looks at it.

  7. #87
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    Default Re: Way-Too-Early 2017-18 NSIC Predictions

    1987- Andre Dawson of the Cubs was the National League MVP. Without him, the Cubs would have finished last. With him, the Cubs finished last.

    When I was in high school, one of the teams had an all conference defensive end. I didn't think he was all that good. His teammates agreed- they said that the only reason why he had that many tackles was that no one would run at the other defensive end. That was true- that other end was really tough.

    So it is hard to understand why some of these selections get made.

  8. Default Re: Way-Too-Early 2017-18 NSIC Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by laker View Post
    1987- Andre Dawson of the Cubs was the National League MVP. Without him, the Cubs would have finished last. With him, the Cubs finished last.

    When I was in high school, one of the teams had an all conference defensive end. I didn't think he was all that good. His teammates agreed- they said that the only reason why he had that many tackles was that no one would run at the other defensive end. That was true- that other end was really tough.

    So it is hard to understand why some of these selections get made.
    I agree, I'll take the guy that averages 15/game on 9 field goal attempts over the guy averaging 22/game on 25 field goal attempts.

  9. #89

    Default Re: Way-Too-Early 2017-18 NSIC Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by Moorhead123 View Post
    I agree, I'll take the guy that averages 15/game on 9 field goal attempts over the guy averaging 22/game on 25 field goal attempts.
    [runs in out of breath] Am I too late or are we still talking about how Gage Davis was robbed?

    Davis averaged 24.7 ppg (among over ridiculous averages) on 16.9 FGAs. Lien averaged 18.5 ppg on 11.1 FGAs. Again, that is just points and not assists, rebounds and blocks, which give Davis a much higher usage rate and make him much more valuable to his less talented team. If you swap them, does Lien make SCSU better? I would argue not, because his efficiency would drop due to being on ball a lot more and he would need more than 5.8 shots per game to make up the 6.2 point difference between he and Davis. Now Davis on MSUM last year in Lien's place could pose problems because Davis is unarguably a more selfish player, but it's not like he doesn't pass (4.3 apg in NSIC games) and theoretically would accept a slightly smaller role with Kretchman (*gulp*) being an above-average ball handler. I'm sure Davis would relish kicking out to Kretchman and Ayob (both above 42% three-point shooters) as opposed to Scottie Stone (38.2%) and three sub-37% shooters.

    Lien will never be my player of the year.

    Quote Originally Posted by Moorhead123 View Post

    Not sure how NSIC looks at it.
    NSIC looks at it by letting the coaches vote and man do they value end of the league standings way more than a dude averaging 24, 9 and 4 (And yeah, I rounded down on all those numbers).

  10. Default Re: Way-Too-Early 2017-18 NSIC Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by Guest69 View Post
    [runs in out of breath] Am I too late or are we still talking about how Gage Davis was robbed?

    Davis averaged 24.7 ppg (among over ridiculous averages) on 16.9 FGAs. Lien averaged 18.5 ppg on 11.1 FGAs. Again, that is just points and not assists, rebounds and blocks, which give Davis a much higher usage rate and make him much more valuable to his less talented team. If you swap them, does Lien make SCSU better? I would argue not, because his efficiency would drop due to being on ball a lot more and he would need more than 5.8 shots per game to make up the 6.2 point difference between he and Davis. Now Davis on MSUM last year in Lien's place could pose problems because Davis is unarguably a more selfish player, but it's not like he doesn't pass (4.3 apg in NSIC games) and theoretically would accept a slightly smaller role with Kretchman (*gulp*) being an above-average ball handler. I'm sure Davis would relish kicking out to Kretchman and Ayob (both above 42% three-point shooters) as opposed to Scottie Stone (38.2%) and three sub-37% shooters.

    Lien will never be my player of the year.



    NSIC looks at it by letting the coaches vote and man do they value end of the league standings way more than a dude averaging 24, 9 and 4 (And yeah, I rounded down on all those numbers).
    I was talking more generally. Would have no problem if Davis had won the award. My point only is that while stats are certainly very important, one must look closely at the stats to make sure efficiency is part of analysis and that the team's wins and losses also typically makes some difference. Someone's stats need to be overwhelming to win MVP/poy if their team isn't near the top. Already used this example, but it's the reason Karl Anthony towns (who was terrific last year) is named by most general managers as the guy they would build an nba team around, yet he didn't make any of top three all league teams last year.

  11. Default Re: Way-Too-Early 2017-18 NSIC Predictions

    Man, with all the Augie support going on, looks as if I'm going to end up buying a lot in Sioux Falls on Jan. 27/28(cuz I'm assuming we'll be drinking past midnight) :) .

  12. #92

    Default Re: Way-Too-Early 2017-18 NSIC Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by Moorhead123 View Post
    I was talking more generally. Would have no problem if Davis had won the award. My point only is that while stats are certainly very important, one must look closely at the stats to make sure efficiency is part of analysis and that the team's wins and losses also typically makes some difference. Someone's stats need to be overwhelming to win MVP/poy if their team isn't near the top. Already used this example, but it's the reason Karl Anthony towns (who was terrific last year) is named by most general managers as the guy they would build an nba team around, yet he didn't make any of top three all league teams last year.
    As I said before, I disagree with this sentiment because those are not the same awards. Words matter. If a league wants to give an award to the top player on a good team then call it an MVP to show the value to that team. If you want to give an award to the best player then call it the Player of the Year.

    As for the Towns reference, I don't know that is a great reference when looking at who you would build your team around compared to a MVP or POY conversation. Those typically factor in age, potential for improvement, position, scarcity of talent at the position, etc. They have to be a good player but that doesn't mean they are MVP or Player of the Year caliber. MVP or POY are not future-looking, it is what have you done for me this year. If you ask who are you going to build around right now to win a championship this year then the answer is much different and correlates better to an MVP or POY discussion.

  13. Default Re: Way-Too-Early 2017-18 NSIC Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by NWHoops View Post
    As I said before, I disagree with this sentiment because those are not the same awards. Words matter. If a league wants to give an award to the top player on a good team then call it an MVP to show the value to that team. If you want to give an award to the best player then call it the Player of the Year.

    As for the Towns reference, I don't know that is a great reference when looking at who you would build your team around compared to a MVP or POY conversation. Those typically factor in age, potential for improvement, position, scarcity of talent at the position, etc. They have to be a good player but that doesn't mean they are MVP or Player of the Year caliber. MVP or POY are not future-looking, it is what have you done for me this year. If you ask who are you going to build around right now to win a championship this year then the answer is much different and correlates better to an MVP or POY discussion.
    I understand your distinction between poy and MVP, but I'm not sure that is a generally accepted distinction. I think many people/groups look at MVP or poy as one in the same. Never taken a formal poll, so I'm not sure. :)

    Also the towns reference may not have been the best, but I wasn't lobbying for him to be in running for MVP but merely saying it is more than simply looking at stats because I would argue his stats were clearly sufficient to make one of top three all league teams (15 guys).

  14. #94

    Default Re: Way-Too-Early 2017-18 NSIC Predictions

    So, on to something other than MVP/POY discussions...how do people think the FINAL standings (not preseason standings, since that's essentially just guessing what the coaches will guess) will shake out this year? Or at least a top 6 maybe.

    Here's what I'm looking at (after Augieholic's persuasive rhetoric on returning talent, etc.):

    1) SMSU
    2) Northern
    3) Moorhead
    4) Augie
    5) Mankato
    6) UIU

    My instinct is to drop Augie down into 5th, but, as mentioned, Augieholic has talked me into approaching things with slightly less apprehension than usual. And since 85% of my preseason predictions end up being wrong (particularly if USF is involved), it probably doesn't matter where I place the Vikes anyway.

    I think most people expect SMSU to be at or near the top, but Northern to me is the real wild card. When it comes to any "this is our year" type of teams (at least when it comes to winning the conference title), Northern has about as good a chance as anybody between their returning talent and having Peterka back from injury, assuming he's at full strength. It would be a pretty big letdown for the Wolves not to be in the conversation for a decent Regional Ranking by the end of the year.

    It's amazing how excited I get every year when basketball season finally rolls around. Maybe it's because some of you chumps here on the boards make it more fun, but there's something about seeing teams meet, exceed, or fail to live up to expectations that always adds a little bit more entertainment in my mind. And apprehension, obviously. :)
    Last edited by MrAugustana; 10-12-2017 at 11:27 AM.

  15. #95
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    Default Re: Way-Too-Early 2017-18 NSIC Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by MrAugustana View Post
    So, on to something other than MVP/POY discussions...how do people think the FINAL standings (not preseason standings, since that's essentially just guessing what the coaches will guess) will shake out this year? Or at least a top 6 maybe.

    Here's what I'm looking at (after Augieholic's persuasive rhetoric on returning talent, etc.):

    1) SMSU
    2) Northern
    3) Moorhead
    4) Augie
    5) Mankato
    6) UIU

    My instinct is to drop Augie down into 5th, but, as mentioned, Augieholic has talked me into approaching things with slightly less apprehension than usual. And since 85% of my preseason predictions end up being wrong (particularly if USF is involved), it probably doesn't matter where I place the Vikes anyway.

    I think most people expect SMSU to be at or near the top, but Northern to me is the real wild card. When it comes to any "this is our year" type of teams, Northern has about as good a chance as anybody between their returning talent and having Peterka back from injury, assuming he's at full strength. It would be a pretty big letdown for the Wolves not to be in the conversation for a decent Regional Ranking by the end of the year.

    It's amazing how excited I get every year when basketball season finally rolls around. Maybe it's because some of you chumps here on the boards make it more fun, but there's something about seeing teams meet, exceed, or fail to live up to expectations that always adds a little bit more entertainment in my mind. And apprehension, obviously. :)
    I'm as high on NSU this year as I have been since the heated Warriors/Wolves days of old. We lose Mack, which is a bummer no dpubt, but we replace his high volume of threes and add a more reliable, selective, and all around better player in Peterka. We won't really have a "stud" three point shooter but we have guys that can shoot a high percentage from deep, it just won't be as many shots. Add that with Doyle and as always we hope for big things from Carter even if it is just doing s good job of filling in for Logan when he needs a rest or is in foul trouble. Smith has shown to be am incredible surprise for the Wolves and by all indications he is back to full strength. That said, he has had head issues in the past so a full season would be a huge victory for us.

    I feel we are deep and seasoned well to make this a year to remember. Having NWMSU early in the year will be a good measuring stick and win/loss not the end all be all of the year. I'm not garunting anything, but Wolves fans and the city of Aberdeen have been longing and deserving of a team to host that regional for years, if not this year then if could be a few years more before a chance is even thought of.

  16. #96

    Default Re: Way-Too-Early 2017-18 NSIC Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by NSU4LIFE View Post
    I'm as high on NSU this year as I have been since the heated Warriors/Wolves days of old. We lose Mack, which is a bummer no dpubt, but we replace his high volume of threes and add a more reliable, selective, and all around better player in Peterka. We won't really have a "stud" three point shooter but we have guys that can shoot a high percentage from deep, it just won't be as many shots. Add that with Doyle and as always we hope for big things from Carter even if it is just doing s good job of filling in for Logan when he needs a rest or is in foul trouble. Smith has shown to be am incredible surprise for the Wolves and by all indications he is back to full strength. That said, he has had head issues in the past so a full season would be a huge victory for us.

    I feel we are deep and seasoned well to make this a year to remember. Having NWMSU early in the year will be a good measuring stick and win/loss not the end all be all of the year. I'm not garunting anything, but Wolves fans and the city of Aberdeen have been longing and deserving of a team to host that regional for years, if not this year then if could be a few years more before a chance is even thought of.
    Is this hope of yours based on the assumption that Pitts goes and plays professionally overseas midway through this season? ;)

  17. #97
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    Default Re: Way-Too-Early 2017-18 NSIC Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by MrAugustana View Post
    Is this hope of yours based on the assumption that Pitts goes and plays professionally overseas midway through this season? ;)
    Nope. I know we are not odds on favorites. Strictly based on what I view of our team this is our best shot in over ten years. Fully aware of their talent down South, but even if others fall of next year, so do we.

  18. Default Re: Way-Too-Early 2017-18 NSIC Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by NSU4LIFE View Post
    I'm as high on NSU this year as I have been since the heated Warriors/Wolves days of old. We lose Mack, which is a bummer no dpubt, but we replace his high volume of threes and add a more reliable, selective, and all around better player in Peterka. We won't really have a "stud" three point shooter but we have guys that can shoot a high percentage from deep, it just won't be as many shots. Add that with Doyle and as always we hope for big things from Carter even if it is just doing s good job of filling in for Logan when he needs a rest or is in foul trouble. Smith has shown to be am incredible surprise for the Wolves and by all indications he is back to full strength. That said, he has had head issues in the past so a full season would be a huge victory for us.

    I feel we are deep and seasoned well to make this a year to remember. Having NWMSU early in the year will be a good measuring stick and win/loss not the end all be all of the year. I'm not garunting anything, but Wolves fans and the city of Aberdeen have been longing and deserving of a team to host that regional for years, if not this year then if could be a few years more before a chance is even thought of.
    Northern State should be the odds on favorite to be the best team in the NSIC. Too much size and skill returning to not place them at the top. MSUM and Augustana will always battle for the top spots because they both attract high level talent and just reload each year. SMSU at four because I need to see what type of play occurs after the top six. If they get solid play from players 7, 8 and 9 they will be a tough match-up.

    1 - NSU
    2 - Augustana
    3 - MSUM
    4 - SMSU
    5-6-7 - Mankato - St. Cloud - USF

  19. Default Re: Way-Too-Early 2017-18 NSIC Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by NSU4LIFE View Post
    I'm as high on NSU this year as I have been since the heated Warriors/Wolves days of old. We lose Mack, which is a bummer no dpubt, but we replace his high volume of threes and add a more reliable, selective, and all around better player in Peterka. We won't really have a "stud" three point shooter but we have guys that can shoot a high percentage from deep, it just won't be as many shots. Add that with Doyle and as always we hope for big things from Carter even if it is just doing s good job of filling in for Logan when he needs a rest or is in foul trouble. Smith has shown to be am incredible surprise for the Wolves and by all indications he is back to full strength. That said, he has had head issues in the past so a full season would be a huge victory for us.

    I feel we are deep and seasoned well to make this a year to remember. Having NWMSU early in the year will be a good measuring stick and win/loss not the end all be all of the year. I'm not garunting anything, but Wolves fans and the city of Aberdeen have been longing and deserving of a team to host that regional for years, if not this year then if could be a few years more before a chance is even thought of.
    I think smith is the key for NSU. If he plays well they will be tough to beat. Specifically if smith can knock down jumpers it will open things up for everyone. I think he is good shooter, but not sure I'd characterize him as great shooter.

  20. Default Re: Way-Too-Early 2017-18 NSIC Predictions

    Until I see some of Msum new guys play I don't really know what to expect. I think they may be a year or two away from being really good, but maybe some of the juco guys are better than expected. Moorhead may be deep as ever, but top end talent after kretchman is a big question (I think Park will have big/nice year and coad may be most athletic player in league).

    1. northern
    2. Smsu
    3. Augustana
    4. Msum
    5. Mankato
    6. UIU
    7 SCSU

    (Bemidgi and Wayne state may be better than people think)

    May get to test poy/MVP discussion with Rudolph from Minot St.

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