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Thread: Central Tournament Men's Predictions

  1. #1

    Default Central Tournament Men's Predictions

    Let's get it rolling, who does everyone have winning in the first round? I really do like the Nsic draws besides Upper Iowa obviously. I believe all games will be close, but I think all Nsic team advance in the first round besides Upper Iowa.

    1)Northwest vs 8) Upper Iowa
    I think the Peacocks play the Bearcats tough for a half before Pitts takes over and the Bearcats win 85-73

    4) UAM vs 5)Augustana
    I'm going with Auggie as they bring back a decent amount of experience from last year and guys that know what it takes to win tournament games. If the Vikings can stay out of foul trouble, I'll say they prevail 82-74

    2) SMSU vs 7) Ark Tech
    In my opinion this bottom half of the bracket was the hardest to pick. I think this game will be back and forth all game long. Tech comes in averaging 87ppg but giving up 81.

    In my opinion, SMSU is the second hottest team in the region. I believe Smsu stays hot and gets a few more stops and wins a close one 81-77

    3) ECU) vs 6) MSUM
    Hardest game for me to pick, ECU comes in after just winning the GAC conference championship and on a 5 game winning streak averaging 81ppg. One thing both of these teams do well is shoot the 3 ball, so this could be a high scoring game.

    Moorhead is a hard team to figure out, but they should be well rested. This is a team that is very capable of playing in the finals as we all know they can put points up in a hurry. One thing Msum will have to do well is rebound. They also will need to try and control the tempo of the game as the athleticism of ECU could cause problems. I'll take the Dragons 88-84

    Excited to watch Senior's Braxton Reeves (POY of the GAC) and Aaron Lien (POY of the NSIC) battle it out.

    Just my thoughts to get some predictions and talk going. Happy March!
    Last edited by FanOfBasketball; 03-06-2017 at 08:29 AM.

  2. #2
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    Default Re: Central Tournament Men's Predictions

    FOB, I agree with all of your picks. My question would be Moorhead. Will they be rested or rusty?

  3. Default Re: Central Tournament Men's Predictions

    Laker, totally agree with you. That's why I think that is the biggest toss up game. I watched ECU in the conference championship game and they will present some problems for the Dragons down low as they play 2 bigs together and also more athletic. I also noticed they headge ball screens a lot in pick n roll situations where that could open Lien up quickly for some good looks.

    Will be a very interesting game and looking forward to seeing how this weekend is officiated.

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    Default Re: Central Tournament Men's Predictions

    History says to bet against the GAC. In the four years these three conferences have formed the Central region, the GAC is 1-7 against the other two. Harding beat CentralMO the first year (2013) for the only win. They are 1-2 against the MIAA and 0-5 vs NSIC.

    The MIAA is 6-6 vs the NSIC in those four years but 5 of the 6 wins are Northwest. Northwest is 5-0 vs the NSIC in the first 2 rounds, 3-0 in the 2nd round. (That would be the second day of two days in a row. You guys see what I did there, referencing a topic from another thread.) However, 0-2 against the NSIC in the finals.
    Last edited by Randy; 03-06-2017 at 10:57 AM. Reason: 6-6 not 6-0

  5. #5

    Default Re: Central Tournament Men's Predictions

    To me, the biggest question going into the first round is how rusty Moorhead will be.

  6. Default Re: Central Tournament Men's Predictions

    Stanger89, Obviously that is one way to look at it. In my opinion, I just have a hard time believing that would be the reason they would lose to ECU. It's not like they have to play Northwest first round and play one of the best games of the year. Do they still have to play well? Of course, it's march and anything can happen. I'm sure they had a good week of practice knowing they would probably be in the tournament regardless of what was going to happen.

    How do you think your Mustangs matchup with Arkansas Tech?

  7. #7

    Default Re: Central Tournament Men's Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by FanOfBasketball View Post
    Stanger89, Obviously that is one way to look at it. In my opinion, I just have a hard time believing that would be the reason they would lose to ECU. It's not like they have to play Northwest first round and play one of the best games of the year. Do they still have to play well? Of course, it's march and anything can happen. I'm sure they had a good week of practice knowing they would probably be in the tournament regardless of what was going to happen.

    How do you think your Mustangs matchup with Arkansas Tech?
    Admittedly, I haven't seen any of Tech this year, but I'm pretty optimistic about our chances. Actually, I like our chances against any team in the tournament.

  8. #8

    Default Re: Central Tournament Men's Predictions

    The Mustangs can't afford for Bruggeman to get in foul trouble. beyond that, I don't have any major concerns. I think we match up well and can beat anybody. I like our intensity and basketball skills.

  9. #9

    Default Re: Central Tournament Men's Predictions

    I think NW wins by 15 or so. It will be a much closer game than the first game of the season. I believe NW had the loss last year to UIU in their mind on that opening game. UIU will probably have that same revenge factor in mind. It will be close for a half and then NW will pull away.

    I can't really comment on the other games. I haven't watched much NSIC games. Saw Augustana here early in the year. Watched some of the NSIC tournament. SW Minnesota looked good. However I watched them play NSU about 3 weeks ago for 10 minutes or so and it was some of the worst basketball I have seen all season. I am guessing they are somewhere closer the NSIC tournament version. I've watched absolutely no GAC teams so to make predictions would be complete guesses based on what others have said.

  10. #10

    Default Re: Central Tournament Men's Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by NWHoops View Post
    I can't really comment on the other games. I haven't watched much NSIC games. Saw Augustana here early in the year. Watched some of the NSIC tournament. SW Minnesota looked good. However I watched them play NSU about 3 weeks ago for 10 minutes or so and it was some of the worst basketball I have seen all season. I am guessing they are somewhere closer the NSIC tournament version.
    There are only three games this season I feel the Mustangs have been bad. That game is one of them, along with the Augie and Bemidji losses.

  11. #11

    Default Re: Central Tournament Men's Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by Stanger86 View Post
    There are only three games this season I feel the Mustangs have been bad. That game is one of them, along with the Augie and Bemidji losses.
    correct. Those we real bad too. we won't play like that this weekend. Not sure we'll win, but we'll at least play well.

    In all those 3 games we played poorly because those 3 teams punched us in the mouth, kicked us around and we didn't respond. They all 3 kicked our ass

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    Default Re: Central Tournament Men's Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by Stanger86 View Post
    Admittedly, I haven't seen any of Tech this year, but I'm pretty optimistic about our chances. Actually, I like our chances against any team in the tournament.
    I haven't seen SMSU this year, although I vaguely know some things about the players on this year's team from last year and when I was still at WSU.

    I think it's going to come down to two things. Can Arkansas Tech stop Carter Kirk down on the low block and can the SMSU guards keep up with the athleticism of Freddy Lee and Justin Graham? The Wonder Boys play a very interesting style of ball where they actually start two point guards. They've been doing this for about 2/3 of the season and most of the teams they play cannot keep up with both guys. They are not turnover prone guards either as both guys have an over 3-to-1 assist/turnover ratio, so forcing turnovers from them will not be easy.

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    Default Re: Central Tournament Men's Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by Randy View Post
    History says to bet against the GAC. In the four years these three conferences have formed the Central region, the GAC is 1-7 against the other two. Harding beat CentralMO the first year (2013) for the only win. They are 1-2 against the MIAA and 0-5 vs NSIC.

    The MIAA is 6-6 vs the NSIC in those four years but 5 of the 6 wins are Northwest. Northwest is 5-0 vs the NSIC in the first 2 rounds, 3-0 in the 2nd round. (That would be the second day of two days in a row. You guys see what I did there, referencing a topic from another thread.) However, 0-2 against the NSIC in the finals.
    I'm going to be completely honest with you Randy and I'm saying this as someone who grew up in NSIC country and is currently in the GAC. The talent disparity between the NSIC and the GAC is not nearly as substantial as it used to be. While I feel the talent in the NSIC is going down, I feel as though the talent in the GAC is getting better. I do believe if there is possibly a year that two teams from the GAC advance, this will be the year. I think all three matchups will be interesting to watch and I feel pretty confident that if East Central plays like they did in the GAC Tournament, there is no way MSU-Moorhead is beating them. They looked like a team possessed in the GAC Tournament.

    I think the big difference now is that it doesn't seem like there are as many dominant big men in the NSIC this year. In the past 10 years when the NSIC had guys like John Smith, Clayton Vette, Assem Marei, Daniel Jansen, and Matt Schneck, they could just feed it to those guys in the low post and just dominate everyone they played. The NSIC just doesn't have a big guy like that anymore. The closest thing they have to that is Aaron Lien and I can honestly say after watch Lien play, I wouldn't even put him remotely close to either of those five guys.

  14. #14

    Default Re: Central Tournament Men's Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by Toucanbird View Post
    The Wonder Boys play a very interesting style of ball where they actually start two point guards. They've been doing this for about 2/3 of the season and most of the teams they play cannot keep up with both guys. They are not turnover prone guards either as both guys have an over 3-to-1 assist/turnover ratio, so forcing turnovers from them will not be easy.
    Interesting. While certainly not the 2009 team, I've been very impressed with the team's defense over the three weeks or so (since the Augie game). Not necessarily forcing turnovers, but just playing sound defense.

  15. #15

    Default Re: Central Tournament Men's Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by Toucanbird View Post
    I'm going to be completely honest with you Randy and I'm saying this as someone who grew up in NSIC country and is currently in the GAC. The talent disparity between the NSIC and the GAC is not nearly as substantial as it used to be. While I feel the talent in the NSIC is going down, I feel as though the talent in the GAC is getting better. I do believe if there is possibly a year that two teams from the GAC advance, this will be the year. I think all three matchups will be interesting to watch and I feel pretty confident that if East Central plays like they did in the GAC Tournament, there is no way MSU-Moorhead is beating them. They looked like a team possessed in the GAC Tournament.

    I think the big difference now is that it doesn't seem like there are as many dominant big men in the NSIC this year. In the past 10 years when the NSIC had guys like John Smith, Clayton Vette, Assem Marei, Daniel Jansen, and Matt Schneck, they could just feed it to those guys in the low post and just dominate everyone they played. The NSIC just doesn't have a big guy like that anymore. The closest thing they have to that is Aaron Lien and I can honestly say after watch Lien play, I wouldn't even put him remotely close to either of those five guys.
    Probably because Lien is a natural 3-4 and is basically not a true 5 at all. Particularly not in the sense that the guys you listed are. I've seen extended stretches in the past for Moorhead when Lien was playing shooting guard. So I can see why you wouldn't put him close to those guys.

  16. #16

    Default Re: Central Tournament Men's Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by MrAugustana View Post
    Probably because Lien is a natural 3-4 and is basically not a true 5 at all. Particularly not in the sense that the guys you listed are. I've seen extended stretches in the past for Moorhead when Lien was playing shooting guard. So I can see why you wouldn't put him close to those guys.
    Yeah, I thought that was odd. From my memory Lien is more a combo forward, like Bartlett at SMSU.

    As for bigs, it's a lot of defensive bigs and not a lot of offensive skill.

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    Default Re: Central Tournament Men's Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by Toucanbird View Post
    I think the big difference now is that it doesn't seem like there are as many dominant big men in the NSIC this year.
    MSU was like a donut this year. No real center. AJ Patty didn't make it through the season- heck, he didn't make it to Christmas. Once he was gone, there wasn't much hope to have a great season.

  18. #18

    Default Re: Central Tournament Men's Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by laker View Post
    MSU was like a donut this year. No real center. AJ Patty didn't make it through the season- heck, he didn't make it to Christmas. Once he was gone, there wasn't much hope to have a great season.
    It's tough to nab quality centers at D2 in our market; probably everywhere. Subsequently many teams seem to end up spending too much time hanging around the three point line with no inside-outside ball movement. As with many things the slew of recent D1 move-ups around here hasn't helped but most of them probably have a hard time finding good posts too. If you find/develop one it can make all the difference. For Winona Gathje was pretty effective for awhile but then disappeared. In no way, however, is he in the class of Smith or Vette. Our seven footer becomes eligible next year and we will see. Obviously if D1's thought he was a worth a flyer he wouldn't be here.

  19. #19

    Default Re: Central Tournament Men's Predictions

    So, back to predictions. Games finally start tomorrow and I'm in full Apostle of Apprehension mode.

    Here are my thoughts as an Augie fan, most of which are likely to be wrong.

    What I think will happen:
    I think the NSIC will win three of the four games tomorrow. Upper Iowa being the obvious team that I don't expect to see win. Maybe the Bearcats are seeing it that way too and they'll get picked off unexpectedly, but I doubt it.

    Then it's a matter of whether the Vikes have gotten better since the first time they played NWMSU earlier this year to a degree that keeps the game competitive with the Bearcats. I'd love to give a confident yes on that front, but the Bearcats are really freakin' good, so I'm only saying it hopefully rather than over-confidently. Do I think the Vikes can win? Yes. But I won't sit here and say they will win. Hoping, but not promising.

    On the SMSU side, I see SMSU getting to the championship unless Moorhead's lengthy rest time just has them mentally and physically prepared to tame the Mustangs. It was a super close, OT game the first time around, so it's not like this would be an easy win for SMSU by any means.

    If it's Augie/SMSU, I really like Augie's chances to bounce back from the upset in the NSIC Tourney. I think the taste of defeat is probably still pretty bitter in those guys' mouths and last time they were bitter about a loss to SMSU, it led to an 18-point win in Marshall. I doubt the Vikes would win that big, but I won't complain if they do.

    If it's Augie/Moorhead, kind of the same thing. I could see it being close and going either way, but I still like the Vikes.

    If it's Augie and a GAC school, I will be surprised that the GAC took down two NSIC teams, but it would be fun to see a championship either against a team we've beaten in East Central or a team we've never played in Arkansas Tech. To me, this is the least likely scenario.

    What I want to see happen:
    What I want is for the NSIC to get two wins (Augie and Upper Iowa). I would love for both Moorhead and SMSU to get picked off early, since I know for a fact that both schools will give Augie very, very tough games if Augie is fortunate enough to somehow make it to the championship game. If the two GAC schools take down the NSIC schools, we already know Augie is capable of beating East Central and I would rather take our chances with an unfamiliar opponent like Arkansas Tech than have to play a program/coach we've battled with consistently for 3 years now in Moorhead or take on SMSU for yet a fourth time this year. Plus, I don't think I could handle losing to SMSU in both the conference tournament and the regional tournament. It would be too much frustration for me to bear, I fear, and I'd probably break something.

    Of course, before any of that, the Vikes in this scenario would need to pick off a dangerous UIU team that just needs one or two guys to have a hot shooting night to beat us. But I'd feel better going to battle against a team like UIU than I would going against the Pittses.

    Unfortunately, I don't think my "want" scenario is going to play out as much as my "think" scenario probably will.

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    Default Re: Central Tournament Men's Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by MrAugustana View Post
    Unfortunately, I don't think my "want" scenario is going to play out as much as my "think" scenario probably will.
    What I "want" in this tournament is for all four NSIC teams to win. Then we would have an NSIC representative at the Elite 8 in Sioux Falls which will make it more interesting to attend.

    What I "think" will happen is that host Northwest will win the regional. And that three NSIC will win in the first round.

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