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Paul Falewicz

SR1 Regional Rankings

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The third rankings are out and the top four in the region are the same for the second consecutive week. One new team is in the top ten and the top six will be announced this coming Sunday. Teams need to win this weekend and not let the numbers dictate whether or not they make the playoffs.

1. Shippensburg 10-0, 10-0 Last Week: 1

Shippensburg continues to be the top team in SR1. They have taken care of business in the PSAC this year and face one more hurdle for home field throughout the playoffs. They will play Indiana for the PSAC championship and they appear to be in position for a home playoff game even if they lose the game. Shippensburg has the 56th toughest schedule to date which is third with the ranked SR1 teams.

2. Winston-Salem State 10-0, 10-0 Last Week: 2

Winston Salem is in solid position for a bye week if they are able to beat Elizabeth City for the CIAA championship. A victory this weekend will get them a bye and a home playoff game. If they stumble, they are still in the playoffs but will fall in the standings and might have to hit the road. They have the 72nd toughest schedule thus far which ranks fifth for the SR1 ranked teams.

3. New Haven 9-0, 9-0 Last Week: 3

New Haven took care of business last weekend with a big victory over AIC and will now host the inaugural NE-10 championship game. It appears that the Chargers are in the playoffs regardless of the outcome this weekend. A victory will ensure them a home playoff game and a loss will probably send them on the road. They have the 90th toughest schedule in the country which is good for eighth of the SR1 ranked teams.

4. Bloomsburg 9-1, 9-1 Last Week: 4

Bloomsburg is in a good position to make the playoffs as they have been the victim of earned access in the past. If they are able to win at Slippery Rock, they will be in the playoffs but it is not guaranteed that they will host a game. Shippensburg might be seeded ahead of them if they both have one loss in the final standings. They have the 79th toughest schedule thus far which ranks them sixth of the SR1 ranked teams.

5. Indiana 9-1, 9-1 Last Week: 6

Indiana is the biggest question mark this week again. If they are able to beat Shippensburg in the PSAC championship game, they are in the playoffs and will most likely jump up into the top four to host a game. If they loss to Shippensburg, their fate will be in the hands of the committee. They should make the playoffs but it will depend on the WVIAC teams behind them. They have the 143rd toughest schedule in the country out of 148 teams. That is last among the ranked SR1 teams.

6. Shepherd 7-2, 7-2 Last Week: 7

Shepherd appears to be the best bet for the WVIAC to make the playoffs. After they defeated Glenville State last week, they will need to beat Fairmont State to secure another playoff trip. A loss might drop them out the playoffs and potentially out of the top eight. They have the 15th toughest schedule in the country which is tops for the SR1 ranked teams this week.

7. Charleston 8-2, 8-2 Last Week: 9

Charleston needs a lot of help to make the playoffs. First, they need to take care of business and beat WV State. Second, they will need Shepherd to be upset by Fairmont State. Third, they will need the committee to keep them in the top eight to get in via earned access. They have the 82nd toughest schedule in the country which is seventh for the SR1 ranked teams.

8. AIC 7-2, 7-2 Last Week: 8

AIC stayed in the same spot despite a loss to New Haven last weekend. They will get another shot at the Chargers this weekend in the NE-10 championship game. The Yellow Jackets appear to be a long shot at the playoffs unless some of the teams fall ahead of them plus a win in the NE-10 championship game. They have the 68th toughest schedule thus far which is good for fourth of the ranked SR1 teams.

9. Mercyhurst 8-2, 8-2 Last Week: NR

Mercyhurst is the newcomer to the rankings after they soundly beat California last weekend. They finished in a tie for the PSAC West title but lost the tiebreaker because of their loss to Indiana. The Lakers will close out the season with East Stroudsburg and like the teams ahead of them, they will need a lot of help to make the top six. Mercyhurst has the 141st toughest schedule to date which is ninth best of the SR1 ranked teams.

10. California 7-3, 7-3 Last Week: 5

California has stumbled down the stretch and have fallen in the rankings. After losses to Slippery Rock and Mercyhurst, the Vulcans are a long shot at the playoffs and finish their season with Millersville. It will be the first time in six years that California will miss the playoffs. They have the 38th toughest schedule in the country which is second best of the SR1 ranked teams.

Here is a look at the strength of schedules to date for the ten teams:

15 Shepherd 44 32 0 0.57894737
38 California (PA) 47 39 0 0.54651163
56 Shippensburg 44 39 0 0.53012048
68 American Int'l 37 35 0 0.51388889
72 Winston-Salem 42 40 0 0.51219512
79 Bloomsburg 42 41 0 0.50602410
82 Charleston (WV) 41 41 0 0.50000000
90 New Haven 36 37 0 0.49315068
141 Mercyhurst 36 52 0 0.40909091
143 Indiana (PA) 35 53 0 0.39772727

Here is a look at the cumulative strength of schedules with the records of the teams they are playing.

11 Shippensburg 53 40 0 0.56989247
14 Shepherd 48 37 0 0.56470588
68 Bloomsburg 48 45 0 0.51612903
71 American Int'l 37 35 0 0.51388889
73 Winston-Salem 42 40 0 0.51219512
76 California (PA) 49 47 0 0.51041667
97 New Haven 36 37 0 0.49315068
112 Charleston (WV) 43 47 0 0.47777778
124 Indiana (PA) 45 53 0 0.45918367
143 Mercyhurst 41 56 0 0.42268041

Winston-Salem, New Haven and AIC have no additions to their strength of schedule per the NCAA spreadsheet because they are playing in a championship game against an opponent that they already faced. I am not sure why Winston-Salem doesn't get credit as they have not played Elizabeth City yet. I am only going based on the spreadsheet prepared by the NCAA.

It looks like the top three teams are in the playoffs regardless of outcome this weekend. Then the fun starts. The biggest bubble team is Indiana. They have one of the weakest schedules to date but will get a huge boost this weekend with Shippensburg in the PSAC championship game. A win by the Crimson Hawks gets them into the playoffs and it is a huge unknown if they lose.

It appears that the conference breakdown is going to be three from the PSAC and one each from the CIAA, NE-10 and WVIAC. The only change could be if Indiana loses, Charleston wins and the other top four win out, would the committee slot the Golden Eagles sixth and Indiana 7th. They would be very close in strength of schedule and have the same 9-2 record. That would get two WVIAC teams in and two PSAC teams along with one from the NE-10 and CIAA.

We will see some shakeup this weekend due to the PSAC championship game but the other teams need to take care of business on the field.

Here is a look at the games that will affect the final results this weekend:

1. Shippensburg @ 5. Indiana, PSAC championship game, 2 PM
2. Winston-Salem vs. Elizabeth City in Durham, NC for the CIAA championship game, 1 PM
8. AIC @ 3. New Haven for the NE-10 championship game, 12 PM
4. Bloomsburg @ Slippery Rock, 1 PM
Fairmont State @ 6. Shepherd, 12 PM
WV State @ 7. Charleston, 1 PM
East Stroudsburg @ 9. Mercyhurst, 12 PM
Millersville @ 10. California, 3:30 PM

We will see on Sunday who the top six teams are in SR1 and the debate will start on who will win the region and who got left out of the playoffs.

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NE-10 , ‎ PSAC

Comments

  1. Steppinwolf's Avatar
    would a Bentley 8-2 be better than a Shep 7-3, a Mercyhurst 8-3, a Charleston 8-3 and an AIC 7-3? I understand they have a weak SoS..but it seems a shame they get locked out of a top ten with 8 points separating them from a perfect season if they win this weekend.
  2. NewHaven Alum's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Steppinwolf
    would a Bentley 8-2 be better than a Shep 7-3, a Mercyhurst 8-3, a Charleston 8-3 and an AIC 7-3? I understand they have a weak SoS..but it seems a shame they get locked out of a top ten with 8 points separating them from a perfect season if they win this weekend.
    Ummmm, Good question.
  3. Paul Falewicz's Avatar
    Based on the numbers, no. Shepherd has a game against Shippensburg and AIC on their resume. Bentley has WV Wesleyan. Plus they tend to rank teams based on head to head if they are close. So Bentley would have trouble overtaking AIC based on their loss to them. They have Shep over Charleston because of the head to head and Shep over AIC for the same reason.