http://www.d2messageboard.com/blog.php?25745-Aaron-Ziemer Division 2 Message Board, D2 Football, DII, D-II en Wed, 19 Jun 2013 17:38:26 GMT vBulletin 60 http://www.d2messageboard.com/images/misc/rss.jpg http://www.d2messageboard.com/blog.php?25745-Aaron-Ziemer http://www.d2messageboard.com/entry.php?775-A-Few-Big-Games-Remain Sat, 10 Nov 2012 04:15:14 GMT *Concordia (2-8) at Winona State (8-2)* Last Year: 58-24, Winona State While there are a lot of good games that remain on the Northern Sun... Concordia (2-8) at Winona State (8-2)
Last Year: 58-24, Winona State

While there are a lot of good games that remain on the Northern Sun schedule this season, perhaps there is nothing bigger than this one. Why? Well, there is a lot on the line for Winona.

You could look at this one on the surface and say there are two different teams that are headed in two different directions. But Concordia, has lost five games by one possession, including last week, this season, and in the old NSIC (pre 2009) there was no bigger rivalry than Concordia and Winona.

Offensively, Concordia has a lot of weapons and those weapons could help to keep them in the game, especially if the weather is as cooperative as it is suppose to be on Saturday.

But, Winona put up over 700 yards against Augustana last week, in a week in which the Warrior offense scored 73-points, which included over 500 yards passing. Now can you imagine, the task the Concordia has on their hands this week, not only do they have to stop the NSIC's all time leading rusher in Rayon Simmons, but they have to face an offense that threw for over 500 yards against the Vikings last week.

This won't be an easy task, meanwhile the Warriors are going to be watching a game out of the MIAA with bated breath this week. Why you ask, well Missouri Western State has to face Northwest Missouri State, and if the Bearcats can win a battle of the two schools that are less than 20-miles apart, that could knock the Griffons from the top six, and a Warrior win, could put them into the playoffs.

Not bad, considering two weeks ago, it looked like their might only be one NSIC team in the playoffs. Now there is a legitimate shot, that three could make it.

I expect a spirited effort from Concordia on Saturday, but I like the Warriors to win. Winona is 9-2, Northwest Missouri does their job, and the Warriors make the playoffs.... maybe they even pull an upset in the first round.


Northern State (6-4) at Minnesota Duluth (9-1)
Last Year: 37-6, Minnesota Duluth

The NSIC North Championship game this year. The Wolves get set to take on the Bulldogs as both teams roll in with just one loss in the NSIC North Division.

Unfortunately, for Northern, that is all that is on the line, losses to Augustana and Southwest Minnesota State earlier this season negated any hope of a 12th game. However, they have been playing really well the last few weeks.

The Wolves have won six of their last seven games since then. Since upsetting St. Cloud State a few weeks ago, the Wolves have been playing with a lot of confidence, beating their last two opponents by a combined 117-37.

Hey, don't think there isn't a lot on the line for the Bulldogs this week. Right now, even with just their one loss on the season, they are the #6 team in the region, this is not a team that can afford another loss in the region (although, I don't think Winona or Sioux Falls fans would complain if it happened).

The Wolves are playing at a different level right now, they are playing at the level of the Bulldogs. However, they are going to run into one of the top teams in the Northern Sun this week. They will need to find a way to slow down a Bulldog rushing attack that sparks an offense scoring 45-points a game.

Northern's last loss last season came to Minnesota Duluth, in fact, the argument could be made that, the game was maybe the turning point of Northern's program. Minnesota Duluth won't see the same Wolves team that they beat 37-6 last year, they will see a confident group that will challenge them all the way to the end.

In the end though, I believe it will be Minnesota Duluth that comes out with the win.


Wayne State (6-4) at Sioux Falls (8-2)

Last week's loss to Minnesota State was a major blow to the Cougars hopes of making the NCAA Super Region 3 Playoffs. But they aren't dead yet, they need some help, of course, they also need to win.

But if somehow, the NSIC gets three teams into the playoffs which could happen if Missouri Western State loses to Northwest Missouri State (an MIAA game) the Cougars could find themselves in the Mineral Water Bowl. Or better yet for Cougar fans, if some how the Wolves would beat Minnesota Duluth, and Missouri Western loses, they still have a shot at the palyoffs.

The contest between these two clubs I think comes down to the matchup between USF's high powered offense, and Wayne State's defense.

Outside of a couple of let downs, the Wildcat defense has been solid this season, but this week, they will get tested by a really talented group. Taylor Perkins has thrown 25-touchdowns this season, and 22 of them have gone to either Carrington Hanna or Jeremiah Oates. That passing attack sparks an offense that can be tough to stop, because both Kristian Porter and Jordan Taylor can give the Cougars balance offensively.

Wayne's defense needs to find a way to keep that group under wraps this week if they want to try and get the road win. I am not sure that will be possible for the Wildcats, I like the Cougars, there is just too much hope for USF this week.


Other games

I am going to make this quick, because its already Friday night, and most of the other games don't have a lot of playoff consequences.

I like Minnesota State to beat Upper Iowa this week. The Peacock offense gets to face a defense that doesn't make a lot of mistakes, and I don't see that defense allowing an upset to happen at this stage of the season.

Phil Klaphake was named as one of the 24 Harlon Hill finalists for St. Cloud State this week. He should look every bit of it this week against Minnesota State Moorhead. I like the Huskies to get their seventh win of the season by defeating the Dragons.

Its the Beaver Bash this week as Minot State heads to Bemidji State. And while, Minot has won two of their last three games, Bemidji has won five of their last six, and Lance Rongstad has been a big reason why. The Senior quarterback not only has thrown 13 touchdown passes this season, he also leads the team in rushing, and has run for seven more scores--no wonder he's a two sport athelte. Look for Bemidji to keep their winning streak over Minot alive this week.

There's another big rivalry in the NSIC South Division this week, although it hasn't been an even rivalry as of late, but there's no one that Southwest Minnesota State likes playing as much as they like facing Augustana. The Vikings have had a disappointing season, especially considering they have the NSIC's second leading offense, in yards and points. That will test the Mustang defense, but Southwest has won three straight at home, and even though it hasn't happened since 1991, I like the Mustangs to pull a mild upset in this one, and beat the Vikings.

I will also take the University of Mary to finish their season with a victory. They will beat Minnesota Crookston on Saturday as well. ]]> Aaron Ziemer http://www.d2messageboard.com/entry.php?775-A-Few-Big-Games-Remain http://www.d2messageboard.com/entry.php?749-Two-Weeks-Left-Some-Big-Games-Remain-In-the-Northern-Sun Thu, 01 Nov 2012 16:52:52 GMT After watching things last week, I found this week's Regional Rankings somewhat disappointing. Not saying that things can't change for Winona State, or Sioux Falls this week, because you never know, but if you ask me the Northern Sun has four playoff teams, three of them are in the NSIC South, and only one or two at best are going to get in.

The painful reality for some of those teams is that, if the Super Region 3 Playoffs began this week, there is only one tam in the Northern Sun going, Minnesota State Mankato, and at 9-0, I think they have earned it.

Minnesota Duluth's loss to St. Cloud really hurts them, but the tough part for the Bulldogs is that they are a last second, last play loss, away from behing unbeaten, and they have fallen out of the top six, with really no way to get back in, without help in the MIAA.

And even if they get that help, what if USF beats Minnesota State this week, that means the Cougars have only one loss, like Duluth, and a much better strength of schedule, what would stop them from jumping over the Bulldogs.

For that matter, what about a 9-2, Winona State team, their only two losses on the season came to Minnesota Duluth on the road, and Minnesota State at home, and they beat USF.

But there are some big games that remain, as we head towards the playoffs, in particular, the game we start off with this week.


Sioux Falls (8-1) at Minnesota State (9-0)

Everything is on the line Saturday for Sioux Falls. The Cougars kept their playoff hopes alive despite a furious rally from Upper Iowa.

Sioux Falls built a quick 37-0 lead only to see Cole Jaeschke torch their defensive secondary for 600-yards and five touchdowns in the game. That showed some deficiencies for the Cougars, but this week, Minnesota State doesn't throw the ball that effectively (for that matter I am not sure that anyone in the NSIC does).

To be perfectly honest, I think the game will come down more to how the Cougars stop the run. The Mavericks have a running attack like no one else in the Northern Sun, they are three backs deep, plus a quarterback who can beat you with their feet. They will run it at opponents in a variety of ways, and with a lot of different ball carriers.

Sioux Falls has been giving up about 127-yards a game against the rush this season, but don't forget they have been playing with large leads in many of their games, so teams sometimes are forced to give up on the run.

The Cougars can be hurt on the ground too, and with Mankato's rushing attack, and playing at home, losing to the Mavericks on the road is nothing to be ashamed up, unfortunately for the Cougars that loss wil keep them from the playoffs. I will take the Mavericks on Saturday.



Winona State (7-2) at Augustana (4-5)
Last Year: 23-15, Augustana

Its a must win game for Winona, I won't gurantee that if the Warriors win out that they will make the playoffs, but I think if they win out a 12th game is a strong possibility, whether its in the Playoffs or in the Mineral Water Bowl, Winona has some chances.

The Vikings are playing for pride, and trying to cling to hopes of a winning season in Sioux Falls. To be honest, just when you think the Vikings are ready to give up, they do something like beat Concordia on the road last week.

Winona looked like the best team in the Northern Sun last week against Southwest. The Warriors dominated the line of scrimmage, and controlled the game, running for over 300 yards, and letting John Tiegland loose as he threw for 259 yards and four touchdowns.

Augustana has the talent to challenge the Warriors on Saturday though, especially at home. It just is hard to know if they will. The Vikings are 2-2 at home this season, and haven't won at home since their 61-0 route of Minnesota Crookston on September 15th!

Certainly, Josh Hanson can keep Augustana in any game, and receiver Sam Gephart and Tightend Ben Parsley have caught 15 of Hanson's 27 touchdown passes on the season.

Winona's pass defense though can be tough, the Warriors do a great job disguising blitzes and coverages, and that will challenge Hanson and company.

Turnovers could tell the story, if Winona is careful with the ball, I like their chances, especially because with the way the Vikings take chances the opportunity to Winona to hit on big plays will occur. But, the Warriors have turned it over 4-times in the redzone in the last two weeks. It cost them the game against Minnesota State, and kept Southwest in the game through the first half last week.

I am not going to issue the upset alert here, because there's too much on the line for Winona, I like the Warriors to get the road win.



Wayne State (5-4) at Upper Iowa (2-7)
Last Year: 44-41 ot, Wayne State

There is little about the NSIC that can be guranteed these days, however, there is something about this matchup.

Much like against Southwest, Upper Iowa always comes to fight against Wayne State. Look for this year to be no different, because to me, it looks like the Peacocks are coming to battle a lot more this year.

Cole Jaeschke had a special week last week. The NSIC's Offensive Player of the Week, is quickly becoming one of the premiere quarterbacks in the Northern Sun. The sophomore is already second on Upper Iowa's all time passing list with 5,149 and is in third place on the all time list for touchdowns in a career with 37. Additionally in that rally last week against USF, Jaeschke threw for a school record 606 yards, while completing 43 passes on 78 attempts, also both school records. I hope he iced his arm.

There's not much to figure out about how the Peacocks intend to attack the Wildcats this week, it will be through the air. They may run some to preserve some balance, but they will try and beat a Wildcat defense that gives up about 240-yards a game through the air. That could play right into the Wayne State pass rush, though, so the key to the whole day for Upper Iowa will be protecting Jaeschke.

If the Peacocks get out to an early lead, Wayne may have some trouble battling back, they really aren't built for having to battle from behind.

You might be able to count the defensive stops on one hand in this one, but believe it or not, I like the Peacocks in an upset this week.



Concordia St. Paul (2-7) at Southwest Minnesota State (3-6)
Last Year: 60-53, Concordia

Speaking of defensive stops coming at a premium, here is another of those games. No joke, I know there are games where the men's basketball teams between these two schools have combined for less points than these two did last year in the Metrodome.

I would expect a similar result this year. Both teams come into this one though with key injuries.

For Concordia, their best defensive player Zach Moore who has 10-sacks on the season, left the game last week against Augustana, and did not return. My speculation is that Moore will go, despite Concordia ruling him questionable.

I have a similar feeling about Mustang quarterback Tyler Peschong, who was the left the game early in the fourth quarter against Winona State. With only two games left in his career, it will take quite the injury for him to miss the game. If he is unable to go, Charlie Kern would start for Southwest.

But Peschong put up career numbers against Concordia last week, so you know he will be chomping at the bit to go, as he threw for 382 yards and four touchdowns.

Concordia's passing attack will pose a test for a Mustang Secondary, who is only giving up about 209-yards through the air a game. But the Mustangs when they have been hurt, are mostly getting hurt on the ground.

It could go either way, again I expect a lot of points, but at home, I will take Southwest.


MSU Moorhead (1-8) at Bemidji State (5-4)
Last Year: 35-10, Bemidji State

Battle for the Axe in Bemidji this week.

Moorhead has been getting better as the season has gone on, but I don't think the Trophy Game is going to make a big difference this week.

Only Southwest and Minnesota Crookston give up more yards on the ground a game than Moorhead does. That is the main reason, I see them Dragons getting beat up this week.

That's good news for Bemidji State, who's quarterback Lance Rongstad led the ground game against St. Cloud State last week. Rongstad ran for 115 yards and three scores against SCSU, and as a team Bemidji ran for over 200 yards, as they scored a season's best 37-points.

That was a big highlight for the Beavers, because offensively the Beavers have not been a thing of beauty this season, but they have been doing enough to win games, because of their defense. Before their shutout 30-0 loss at Minnesota Duluth, the Beavers defemse had been slamming the door holding Northern to six points, 21-points to Mary, and just two points to Minnesota Crookston.

And now, well, they have won four of five and are on a roll.

This one is easy, Bemidji State keeps the axe.



University of Mary (4-5) at Minnesota Duluth (8-1)
Last Year: 41-28, Minnesota Duluth

I have no idea what has happened at Mary, but they are not the same team they were at the start of the season.

Last week's loss to Northern, 65-17 is inexplicable. It is also unacceptable for Mary, not that they lost, but how they lost.

There were dominated by the Wolves, Northern put up 635 yards of total offense against the Marauders last week, in Bismarck. You can't lose like that, especially at home, fans start to wonder what's going on.

Last week Craig Bagnell was picked off four times in the game, and the Marauders weren't able to run the ball against the Wolves. It is not the Mary squad that started the season 3-0.

That's a major red flag, this week, they take on Minnesota Duluth, a Bulldog squad that even with only one loss is having a tough time locking up a playoff spot.

This could have been set up for one of the biggest matchups in a late season NSIC North title race, instead, with the Bulldogs at home, I expect them to win handily on Saturday.


Minnesota Crookston (1-8) at Northern State (5-4)
Last Year: 45-21, Northern State

Northern State has been the surprise team in the Northern Sun this year. The Wolves last week, laid a beating to the University of Mary, picking off Craig Bagnell four times, and pouring on over 600 yards of offense while burying the Marauders.

They face Minnesota Crookston this week, and the Golden Eagles lone victory is over a team that beat Northern, but that shouldn't matter. Northern has been playing very well against the run, which is of course Northern did a great job shutting down last week.

The Wolves are for real, they maybe 5-4 overall, but right now they are 4-1 in the NSIC North Division, that means they are a win (against UMC) away from playing for the North Division Title next week against Minnesota Duluth.

You had better believe the Wolves will bring the "A Game" this week, I look for another large Northern State victory.


St. Cloud State (5-4) at Minot State (3-6)

Things haven't gone as planned for St. Cloud State this year, the Huskies suffered another disappointing loss on Saturday against Bemidji State. Disappointing because the team came in with aspirations in 2012, lost to Sioux Falls to open the season, and haven't been the same since.

Last week the Huskies had no answer to stop Lance Rongstad who ran for 3-touchdowns in the game, leading a Bemidji rushing attack that ran for 227 yards against the Husky defense.

Don't think for a minute this is an easy game for St. Cloud. Here is why, that last second loss to Northern State knocked the Huskies out of playoff hopes, and last week they looked like it. They are playing a Minot team hungry coming off their third win of the season.

At home, late in the year, the Minot State Beavers are looking for a game to hang their hat on, as they try and build momentum into 2013.

As to the matchup itself, we talked about how St. Cloud was beat up by Bemidji's ground attack last week, well Minot got theirs rolling last week, rushing for 204 yards in the game over Minnesota State Moorhead. Randel Barber led the attack running for 93-yards and a pair of scores.

St. Cloud, on the road off a disappointing effort last weekend, where they were beaten by Bemidji State at home, do you think there is anyone on that team that wants to make this road trip, late in the season, in what is basically a meaningless game for the Huskies?

Look for a spirited effort from the Beavers this week, while it is one of those games you call a moxy tester for St. Cloud. What are the Huskies made of? We find out on Saturday.

As for my money, Scott Underwood has rallied this team everytime against odds stacked against him, since the Huskies entered the Northern Sun in 2008. My prediction is he does it again, I expect St. Cloud to win a battle on Saturday in Minot. ]]> Aaron Ziemer http://www.d2messageboard.com/entry.php?749-Two-Weeks-Left-Some-Big-Games-Remain-In-the-Northern-Sun http://www.d2messageboard.com/entry.php?728-NSIC-Week-9 Thu, 25 Oct 2012 20:05:06 GMT Upper Iowa at University (2-6) of Sioux Falls (7-1)

Both teams come into Saturday's meeting off of close games that went down to the last play of the game. One team is coming in off a victory, the other in off a tough loss.

USF won on an extra point of all things in double over time, to win the Key to the City of Sioux Falls, as they beat Augustana for the first time in their program's history. While Upper Iowa lost, on a late touchdown to Southwest again, and squandering a 12-0 lead in the process.

If you ask me, Saturday's game is a matchup of two of the better quarterbacks in the NSIC South, if not the NSIC as a whole. Taylor Perkins is having a solid season leading the Cougars, who are trying to stay in the playoff hunt, while Cole Jaeschke is having a terrific season as a sophomore, during Upper Iowa's 2-6 campaign.

Let's start with Perkins, he has thrown for 1977 yards and 22-touchdowns this season to just four interceptions. His arm strength and a deep threat in Jeremiah Oates allows the Cougars to score from all over the field. He is certainly one of the reasons the Cougars are off to this 7-1 start.

Last week in the second over time after Augustana scored, but had the extra point blocked, Perkins calmly led the Cougars 25-yards in three plays, as he found a wide open Carrington Hanna to tie the game. Of course, the Cougars won the game on the kick from Braden Wieking.

I think Upper Iowa's Cole Jaeschke is having just as good of a season though for Upper Iowa. Jaeschke has a strong arm, and makes good decisions, and has thrown for 2,097 yards and 19 touchdowns to 9 interceptions. His play hasn't turned into wins and losses yet for the Peacocks, but ask any of the coaches who have seen him, and they will tell you, he is quickly becomming one of the top quarterbacks in the South, and he's only a sophomore. Keep an eye on this kid.

Upper Iowa has enough talent to scare anyone, but this game is about the Cougars, they need to just do the things they do, and not look forward to next week when they will get their turn against a tough MSU squad.

Look for a focused group in Sioux Falls, I will take the Cougars.


Augustana (3-5) at Concordia (2-6)
Last Year: 37-13 Augustana

At 3-5, out of the hunt for a playoff spot, an uphill battle to pursue a winning season, and a loss to cross town rival USF, I think its fair to say the 2012 football season has been disappointing for Augustana.

Usually when you outscore your opponents by an average of 9-points a game, out gain them in every offensive category, convert on 53-percent of your third downs, only allow opponents to convert on 35-percent of theirs, AND don't commit a lot of turnovers, you are going to be in pretty good shape.

The problem for the Vikings is this, they have scored 127 of their 293 points in two games, a 61-0 route of Minnesota Crookston, and a 66-20 thrashing of Upper Iowa. Those two contests have also been two of the Vikings better defensive efforts as well, in fact, outside of their only other win, a 35-14 victory over Northern State, their two best, and the only three games all season Augustana has given up less than 30 points.

Concordia is built very much the same way, they have a lot of athletes and an ability to score a lot of points, so I would expect a track meet, Saturday, one where the winner may need to score 50-points.

The stat to watch in the game is this, Concordia quarterback James Peterson has thrown 16-interceptions on the season, if he can avoid the turnovers the Golden Bears should beat Augustana on Saturday. If not, they won't.

Still off an emotional loss for the Vikings, during what has been a disappointing season, I like the Golden Bears to emerge with a win at home.


Minnesota State (8-0) at Wayne State (5-3)
Last Year: 45-23 Minnesota State

The Mavericks are running through the teeth of their schedule right now. Last week they went to Winona State and came out of the "River City" with a victory over a team that is in contention to make the playoffs. Next week they have a meeting with the NSIC South's only other team remaining with less than 2-losses.

With this game on the road at Wayne State, you hope if you are Maverick Coach Aaron Keen that your guys are not looking past this week to next week when they have that big clash.

Because if they are, Wayne State can beat anyone. Unlike a lot of the other games this week, I don't know that I would expect a high scoring one here. These are two of the better defensive units in the conference, Wayne though will have to continue the improvements they have made against the run.

The Wildcats have have only given up about 180-yards combined on the ground the last two weeks. But their test will be a tough one this week, as the Mavericks have the most explosive rushing attack in the league. It hasn't mattered who has been playing quarterback or who has been taking most of the carries, the Mavericks have been able to run the ball, to the tune of 1,751 yards, second in the Northern Sun.

Further they have stuffed the run defensively, and even though Wayne State had more consistency through the air last week, as Bryan Kent completed 11/17 passing for 224 yards and three touchdowns, they don't want to have to be forced into throwing the ball every down, their offense really isn't built for that.

Unfortunately for the Wildcats, that also means they are going to struggle on Saturday, I will take the Mavericks to pick up a win at Wayne.


Minnesota Duluth (7-1) at Minnesota Crookston (1-7)
Last Week: 49-7, Minnesota Duluth.

There's not a lot to say about this one honestly, the Bulldogs are the better team, they shouldn't have any trouble in Crookston on Saturday.

However, they have lost in Crookston one time, the first time they were both members of the Northern Sun, it was back before the Golden Eagles started struggling though, in 2002.

The Bulldogs come in as the top rushing team in the Northern Sun, they are averaging nearly 240-yards on the ground a game, and that said, they don't have a single rusher with more than 500 yards on the ground, talk about a balanced attack.

Running backs Austin Sikorski and Logan Lauters, quarterback Chace Vogler, are all at about 400 yards on the ground on the season (Sikorski is closer to 500). But its been mainly about balance for the Bulldogs this year.

Overall they ahve been more balanced than in the past, and their rushing attack has shown balance as well.

That's problematic for Minnesota Crookston, so is the Bulldog defense that gives up less than 100 yards a game on the ground. Minnesota Duluth can be thrown on, but the Golden Eagles haven't thrown it much.

I will take Minnesota Duluth, BIG on Saturday in Crookston.



Minot State (2-6) at MSU Moorhead (1-7)

Starting the year how the Dragons did, with so many Freshmen, there is no real surprise that it has been a rough year for Scortch. But it is a crew that has been making some progress, despite their 1-7 record.

Last week, the Dragons Defense kept a Craig Bagnell led Mary offense to under 300 yards of total offense, that's a pretty big accomplishment. Granted it was the first time Bagnell had played in a month, but it was still progress for the Dragons, in a 23-7 loss to the Marauders.

Three turnovers though certainly didn't help the Dragons in that loss. If they can cut those out, they have a chance to win last week, and maybe will again this week.

The Beavers are coming in as a confident bunch though, they are coming off a big win over Minot State this week. Zach Cuna hit the Golden Eagles deep, completing nine of just 14 passes for 227 yards. He'll take that yard per completion stat.

This could be an interesting one on Saturday, but I like Minot to win on the road.


Bemidji State (4-4) at St. Cloud State (5-3)
Last Year: 19-14, Bemidji State

Despite outgaining the Beavers last year, and going 10/16 on third down conversions in the game, Bemidji State got a surprise win at home against St. Cloud last season.

In fact, the Beaver defense held St. Cloud to seven points, until there was a 1:27 left in the game, when Phil Klaphake hit Damon Treat for his only touchdown of the afternoon.

Well, last week, the Huskies were the victims of another surprise, with just :42-seconds remaining Klaphake scored what appeared to be the game winning touchdown, on a two yards run, to put St. Cloud up 27-21, completing a 20-point fourth quarter comeback.

But that's when things started going wrong for the Huskies, Northern blocked kicker Taylor Berger's extra point, and then, the Wolves marched six plays and 64 yards when Jared Jacobson hit Mark Hanley on a 34 yard touchdown connection. Felipe Aliafa's extra point was good and the Huskies were beaten. Just like that their playoff hopes dashed.

Bemidji also comes into the game a little stunned though, the Beavers had their 3-game winning streak snapped at Minnesota Duluth last week. It was the first time since last year that the Beavers got shut out. The last team to do it to Bemidji State, well ironically it was Northern State, the week before Bemidji beat St. Cloud.

If this game was in Bemidji on the grass, and slower track, I would maybe lean the Beavers in this one. But since the Beavers responded from a loss to Northern to beat St. Cloud last year, I think I will take St. Cloud to respond from their loss to Northern to beat Bemidji.


Northern State (4-4) at University of Mary (4-4)
Last Year: 39-36, Northern State

Obviously folks in Aberdeen, South Dakota are feeling good this week after Northern State had one of their biggest wins in recent years. This is right up there wit hthe victory the Wolves had over Augustana last year, and they are putting themselves in position to have a pretty strong finish to 2012.

After their 5-6 finish last season, on the heels of a three game winning streak the Wolves are hungry to improve on that mark from last year. Two wins in their final three games and they will have it. This week won't be easy for Northern though, I am not sure how great of a matchup the University of Mary is for them.

Craig Bagnell returned last week, and while he didn't post huge numbers he did help lift his squad to their first win since they beat Southwest Minnesota State back on September 15th.

The Wolves can be hurt through the air, they like to commit to stopping the run, even against teams that are a little more based through the air. So don't look for Northern to change who they are, if Mary wants to win, they will have to attack Northern through their vulnerabilities.

I do anticipate the Marauders having some trouble with that Northern State attack, the Wolves have found more balance offensively in the last couple of weeks especially, so you just can't key on stopping that speed option running attack.

This should be a good game on Saturday, but I think playing at home gives Mary the edge, and I expect them to win on Saturday.


Southwest Minnesota State (3-5) at Winona State (6-2)
Last Year: 47-20 Winona State

One team comes off an emotional win, the other off of a tough loss in a game that could have turned the tables in the Northern Sun Playoff Picture.

Coach Tom Sawyer admits that his team had chances to beat Minnesota State last week. He points to a costly couple of turnoveers in the red zone that hurt his squad against the Mavericks.

Look for Winona to get back to what they do. Rayon Simmons has had monster games against Southwest the last few seasons. The NSIC's All time leading rusher should be featured for Winona once again this week as the Mustangs despite playing better as of late, continue to struggle stopping the run. In fact through eight games this year, six of SMSU's opponents have run for more than 200 yards in the game, only Northern State and Wayne State have not.

Now, a big way for the Mustangs to keep Simmons from getting to that mark, is by doing some damage on the ground themselves, which is maybe the biggest improvement this team has made this year, they have pounded the football on opponents, that has kept them in games, and allowed them to compete at a higher level.

Winona's defense has been playing better the last few weeks since they escaped from a near loss to Upper Iowa.

I think this game could be a battle Saturday, but again, I lean the home team, I expect Winona to hold off a spirited effort from the Mustangs. ]]> Aaron Ziemer http://www.d2messageboard.com/entry.php?728-NSIC-Week-9 http://www.d2messageboard.com/entry.php?718-NSIC-Playoff-Picture-Regional-Rankings Tue, 23 Oct 2012 01:02:31 GMT For those who haven't seen them yet, here are the Super Region 3 Regional Rankings.

I have also included their remaining opponents and records, things are setting up to be about as wild in the MIAA as they are in the NSIC, so two loss teams, take note.

1. Minnesota State 8-0
2. Henderson State 8-0
3. Harding 6-1
4. Emporia State 8-0
5. NW Missouri State 7-1
6. Minnesota Duluth 7-1
7. Winona State 6-2
8. Sioux Falls 7-1
9. Missouri Western 7-1
10. Ouachita Baptist 6-1

Front Runners

Minnesota State at Wayne State, vs. Sioux Falls, vs. UIU--Big win over Winona State, that was the one game, they couldn't afford to slip up in. Obviously now, every week just gets bigger for the Mavericks, who now have the number one seed on their minds. It is very attainable, however, any one of the remaining three teams on the schedule are capable of pulling an upset if the Mavericks aren't focused every week.

Minnesota Duluth at UM Crookston, vs. Mary, vs. Northern--Northern is the biggest threat to directly knocking the Bulldogs off, they care going to be confident into the end of the season after a BIG win over St. Cloud State. The Bulldogs this week come in as the number six team, their strength of schedule isn't really good, and it likely won't improve much over the rest of the season, but they still need help from teams like Southwest to pick up wins to improve it.

Still Alive

Winona State vs. Southwest, at Augustana, vs. Concordia-- At number 7 in the Region, they Need to go 3-0, and need some help from a likely wild finish in the MIAA especially. Any one of the three teams are capable of knocking them off, ask Minnesota State, who was taken to double overtime by Southwest two weeks ago, ask Sioux Falls who was taken to double overtime by Augustana on Saturday, and Concordia, well I could see them getting up to play Winona in the finale if Winona still has a shot with the rivalry these two have had.

Sioux Falls vs. Upper Iowa, at Minnesota State, vs. Wayne State-- I was a little surprised they are still behind Winona State this week in the regional rankings. Obviously the Cougars are going to need to win out, if they do, they will have attained a victory over Minnesota State, which probably would jump them over Winona, and quite possibly Duluth. ]]> Aaron Ziemer http://www.d2messageboard.com/entry.php?718-NSIC-Playoff-Picture-Regional-Rankings http://www.d2messageboard.com/entry.php?708-NSIC-Week-8 Thu, 18 Oct 2012 16:25:48 GMT *Wayne State (4-3) at Concordia (2-5)* Last Year: 27-24, Concordia Turnovers play a factor in every college football game, and is maybe the... Wayne State (4-3) at Concordia (2-5)
Last Year: 27-24, Concordia

Turnovers play a factor in every college football game, and is maybe the biggest thing that Concordia has going against them this week, as they get ready for Wayne State. James Peterson has been intercepted 13 times this year, including three last week.

And Concordia's passing offense, plays right into the teeth of this big play Wayne Defense, allowing Richard Daniel and his other counterparts on that front line an opportunity to get after the quarterback.

The Wildcats defense had a nice bounce back game against Winona State last week, after a tough showing against Southwest two weeks ago. Even in the loss last week, they held a tough Warriors running attack to just 121-yards, and that was on 41-carries on the day.

The key to watch in this game other than Concordia turnovers, is who gets out to an early lead. If Wayne gets out to an early lead, that forces Concordia to throw more than usual, which then gives Daniel and company more chances to get after Peterson, which leads to potentially more turnovers.

However, Wayne State is really not built to come from behind. The Wildcat passing game has been extremely inconsistent so far this season, and that has hampered them in each of their last two losses. In fact over the last two weeks Brian Kent and Nate Most, the two taking the snaps for the Wildcats this season, have combined to complete just 50-percent of their passes, and neither has thrown for 100-yards in a game over the last couple of weeks.

If Concordia gets out to a lead, they could run away with this thing, but I look for Wayne's defense to make some plays this week, and allow the Wildcats to come out of this with a victory.


Sioux Falls (6-1) at Augustana (3-4)

The two schools are seperated by merely three blocks, in the heart of Sioux Falls. Yet they haven't played in 26-years.

Exepct Saturday to be full of emotion, and maybe even feel like a playoff game, because for all practical purposes it is just that, at least for USF anyway.

The Cougars have never beaten the Vikings, the series began in 1922, and Augustana has won all 19 meetings between the two schools. But don't think there's not a lot on the line for Augustana this week, with the playoffs out of reach for 2012, the Vikings can ill-afford a loss to Sioux Falls' other college. Especially if a win by the Cougars were to say help catapult the team to a run in the Super Region 3 Playoffs.

The key will come down to how USF stops the run. Both teams can move the ball, but the Vikings are coming off of a performance, against Upper Iowa last week, where they ran the ball for over 300 yards. Dajon Newell will give the Cougars defense a test again this week, and as a team the Vikings are second in the Northern Sun in yards per game.

I would expect the Cougars defense shows up this week. The err of invincibility for Augustana at home is gone. They were embarrassed at home two weeks ago by Mankato, and even after their resounding win on the road last week at Upper Iowa, I don't think they stop the Coo this week.

I like USF, to take home the Key to the City this season, and beat the Vikings for the first time, in a series that goes all the way back to 1922!



Bemidji State (4-3) at Minnesota Duluth (6-1)
Last Year: 26-23, Minnesota Duluth

In recent seasons Minnesota Duluth has been that thorne in the side of Bemidji State, the Beavers despite playing them tough a couple of times in the last three seasons, have not been able to get over the hump.

I outlined it earlier this week for Duluth, the Bulldogs need to run the table to make the playoffs, even that doesn't gurantee them anything, but they will get some help on the way. While, I think Minnesota Duluth has the ability to run the table, that is still the biggest hurdle in the way of them making the playoffs, because their strength of schedule won't help them much. The Bulldogs need a team like Southwest to get hot to finish the season, that for example could really help their strength of schedule.

But, they can't worry about that today, or the Beavers will get them. I don't know if anyone has noticed, but after a disappointing 1-3 start to the season, the Beavers are playing better football, they have won three straight games, so they will come into Duluth as a confident bunch.

In the last two weeks they have been strengthening their run defense, holding both Northern State and the University of Mary to less than 100-yards on the ground, infact they held the Wolves last week to 38 yards rushing.

Minnesota Duluth will have to change that trend to win today, and don't be surprised if they do. Bemidji is their toughest challenge remaining on the schedule, but I look for the Bulldogs to take care of business Saturday and get the victory.



Minnesota State (7-0) at Winona State (6-1)
Last Year: 24-14, Minnesota State

There's a lot on the line this week in this matchup. At 7-0, the Mavericks might be the only team in the Northern Sun who can afford a loss and still get into the playoffs, the problem is, that if they lose this week, to Winona, they will throw themselves right into the thick of things.

They also have some very difficult games remaining on their schedule, and if last week is any indication, the NSIC South is turning into an anyone can beat anyone division. Add to it the two teams are playing for a lead in the NSIC South Division Conference Title Race, not to mention the NSIC Crown is also very much in reach for both squads. A couple of years ago, I believe some Winona fans called the game, the single most important game of all time, correction, that is this week.

The Mavericks are not a very complicated offense, instead they rely on their athleticism to win games for them. Defensively, the scheme is fairly similar, they like to keep it simple, and there are reasons, namely, it works.

The Mavericks have four players who have rushed for more than 250-yards this season, two of the four are quarterbacks. They have played three different quarterbacks on the season, all three can run, and they have Adam Thielen who can make any big catch at a receiver, he is just at a different level than any other receiver in the league that I have seen this season. They are 7-0 for a reason.

Those weapons will be a tough challenge for Winona State. But, the Warriors Defensive unit is playing as well as anyone's right now. Last week they held Wayne to 13-points, just one week after holding the University of Sioux Falls to 9. In those same two games, Winona gave up only 262 yards of total offense to the Wildcats, and only 309 yards to Sioux Falls. What's more, they shut USF's running game down, holding that to 81-yards in the game, and forced five turnovers.

That will be the key Saturday, can they keep the Mavericks in check. Neither team can afford to get careless with the football, there is too much on the line for that. At home, I am going to take the Warriors to throw a giant monkey wrench into the playoff picture this week, I predict they end Minnesota State's undefeated run.



Minnesota Crookston (1-6) at Minot State (1-6)

Crookston suffered a disappointing loss last week, in a game, that quite honestly I thought going into it , they probably could have won.

Richard Haley was over 100-yards last week ofr the first times, since they upset Southwest Minnesota State, but four interceptions really hurt the Golden Eagles in their loss to Minnesota State Moorhead last week.

Minot's offense is continuing to try to find its identity. The Beavers have struggled with any type of consistency, their passing attack isn't completing 50-percent of their passes, and combined their quarterbacks have thrown 14 interceptions. And they only have two rushing touchdowns on the season.

If Crookston had won last week they would have a chance to win two in a row this week, but off of their loss, I am going to change my mind on this one, and take the Beavers.

Upper Iowa (2-5) at Southwest Minnesota State (2-5)
Last Year: 28-24, SMSU

These two teams have nearly mirrored each other this season, both losing close games that could have completely changed their seasons.

Upper Iowa, was a pick-6 away from upsetting a powerful Winona State squad, and Southwest, was moments away from ending Minnesota State's 6-0 undefeated start, but a late fourth quarter implosion stopped that.

Now both teams find themselves with little to show for those efforts, and really beat up. Since nearly beating Winona, the injury depleted Peacocks have been routed twice by Concordia and Augustana.

While, the Mustangs are hoping the trend doesn't repeat itself, but Southwest is tredging through some big injuries themselves after their loss a week ago.

If Chris Smith is unable to go, I think the Peacocks will have a tough time though beating the Mustangs, in Marshall, so I will take Southwest.


MSU Moorhead (1-6) at Mary (3-4)
Last Year: 52-13, Mary

The battle for the paddle, as this game has become affectionately known over the last few seasons.

The Marauders have not been the same team without their signal caller Craig Bagnell. Last week again, in the loss to St. Cloud State, Mary quarterback Zach Roberson was intercepted five times. Bagnell hasn't been able to go since finishing a 32-23 loss at Winona State, since then the Marauders have dropped three straight.

Over that three game stretch, Roberson has been intercepted 11-times. Five times last week, four a week earlier, and two in his first start.

Moorhead picked off Crookston's Aj Barge, four times last week, don't think for a minute that if Bagnell can't go, and Roberson continues throwing interceptions that the Dragons couldn't extend that losing streak to five.

I don't think they will though, but expect this to be closer than at first blush, I will take the Marauders though. ]]> Aaron Ziemer http://www.d2messageboard.com/entry.php?708-NSIC-Week-8 http://www.d2messageboard.com/entry.php?699-NSIC-Playoff-Picture Mon, 15 Oct 2012 23:59:28 GMT Well the Northern Sun playoff picture got a little simpler this week. Wayne State is out, and the picture is starting to come into a little more... Well the Northern Sun playoff picture got a little simpler this week. Wayne State is out, and the picture is starting to come into a little more focus. Most likely the teams in the Northern Sun are playing for two, at best three playoff spots this year. So here is how it looks.

Front Runners

Minnesota State University- at Winona State, at Wayne State, vs. Sioux Falls, vs. UIU-- A furious 14-point rally in the final six minutes of regulation last week, forced double overtime and allowed the Mavericks to stay unbeaten. At 7-0, I still believe they can afford a loss and still qualify, it just can't come this week. If it does, complete chaos ensues in the Northern Sun, for the playoff spots. Even if the Mavs fall to Winona, and finish the season with only one loss, I still think they get in, it just becomes a little more bleak for Minnesota Duluth.


Minnesota Duluth (6-1)- vs. Bemidji State, at UM Crookston, vs. Mary, vs. Northern-- Despite the belief of many around here in UMD's strength of schedule, I still rank them here ahead of Winona State and USF, simply because I believe the Bulldogs are extremely likely to run the table. The Bulldogs with one loss, will have a chance to sneak in. There SOS will improve as the season goes on, as others have pointed out, every Winona win, helps their strength of schedule, same with Bemidji State, and Mary, as those teams add up wins, their SOS will improve. Winona has a tough road to run the table on, as I will point out in a minute, and that's what they will need to do to get in, so I still put the Bulldogs ahead of the Warriors.


Winona State (6-1)- vs. Minnesota State, vs. Southwest, at Augustana, vs. Concordia-- Winona State has to win out, to get in. That test will be difficult this week, especially against undefeated MSU Mankato. However, the Mavs can be beaten, especially in Winona. A Warrior win, is a necessity, and is the toughest game on the schedule for the Warriors the rest of the season, Southwest, Augustana, and Concordia are all under .500 and the Warriors could have a better shot of running the table if they can get by the Mavericks. Stay tuned!


University of Sioux Falls (6-1)- at Augustana, vs. Upper Iowa, at Minnesota State, vs. Wayne State-- Two of the final four games will have a playoff like feel for the Cougars, going up against the Augustana Vikings and then the Mavs a little later. Obviously no one in Sioux Falls will be lookng past the Mayor's Cup game coming up on Saturday, which over the years will develop into a major rivalry, so its one of those games where anything could happen, regardless of record.


With A Shot

St. Cloud State (5-2)- The only team in the Northern Sun with two losses and a shot at making the playoffs. I still think the NSIC South teams could beat themselves up a little, which would make it a possibility for St. Cloud to get in. It all depends on how the final regional rankings finish if Duluth and St. Cloud both run the table.

Big changes to this could be coming next week though, a big games between Winona and Minnesota State and USF against Augustana could really simplify this picture for next week. ]]> Aaron Ziemer http://www.d2messageboard.com/entry.php?699-NSIC-Playoff-Picture http://www.d2messageboard.com/entry.php?691-NSIC-Week-7 Sat, 13 Oct 2012 04:41:44 GMT Because it is so late this week, I have my picks for the week ready to go, but they will be abreviated. I wanted to spend some time researching the... Because it is so late this week, I have my picks for the week ready to go, but they will be abreviated. I wanted to spend some time researching the playoffs this week, so I spent some of my normal writing time on that.

Here we go for this weeks forecast.


Winona State (5-1) at Wayne State (4-2)
Last Year: 27-24, Winona State

There are playoff implications all over the place in this matchup that takes place in Wayne, Nebraska this weekend. Winona sits at 5-1, while Wayne State is at 4-2 on the season. This is likely the matchup of the week in the NSIC South Division. That said, the Wayne team that I saw last weekend has some serious deficiencies. They are not able to come from behind to beat teams.

The biggest thing that Southwest did to the Wildcats was keep scoring, and once the Mustangs got up 10-7, Wayne was not able to mount a serious come back. As much of a concern especially playing Winona State this week, was what happened to Wayne's ability to stop the run. They gave up 324 yards on the ground to Southwest, who many people around the conference view as a passing team.

I would hate to be the bearer of bad news for the Wildcats but this week, for an encore they get Rayon Simmons, who is the best running back in the conference, along with Winona's power based attack.

These are teams that I think are going different directions today, I like the Warriors to get the victory.


Minnesota Crookston (1-5) at MSU Moorhead (0-6)
Last Year: 29-22, MSU Moorhead

Hey I don't know if anyone else noticed this or not last week, but in terrible field conditions on a cold day, the Golden Eagles kept their game against St. Cloud State, who I think still is alive for a playoff spot in the region, pretty competitive.

Earlier this season, they ended their long NSIC losing streak over Southwest Minnesota State, and now this is a group that is playing with more confidence.

Richard Haley is the difference maker today, the Dragons give up way to many yards on the ground (239-per week). Even though you know that the Golden Eagles are going to run, Haley can be tough to stop. Add to that, Aj Barge's ability to make plays with his feet on the ground, and even a full back in Keith McBride who can keep teams off balance, I like the Golden Eagles to go to Moorhead Saturday and get the victory, and get their second conference victory of 2012.


Augustana (2-4) at Upper Iowa (2-4)
Last Year: 38-7, Augustana

I have to admit, I thought the Peacocks were ready to show the league, they were contendors last week, then disaster struck at Concordia. If there is a year, where the Peacocks have a chance to upset the Vikings, this would be it.

I don't even know how much of an upset it would be at this point, the Vikings and Peacocks have more in common than you would have thought at the start of the season. Through six games, both teams are 2-4, and both are 0-2 in NSIC South Division play. What's more, the Vikings have fallen on hard times, since they walloped Minnesota Crookston at home, the Vikings have lost three straight (granted they have played some tough teams).

Looking over this one, if Upper Iowa hadn't played so badly last week, I would maybe consider picking them today. That said, Augustana still has a lot of fire power on the offensive side of the ball, and that will challenge the Peacocks this week. Viking quarterback Josh Hanson has thrown for more than 1,600 yards and 19 touchdowns already on the season.

Nothing shocks me in this game on Saturday, but I like the Vikings to come out of this with the win, and end their three game losing streak.


University of Mary (3-3) at St. Cloud State (4-2)
Last Year: 45-24 St. Cloud State

On the surface it looks like St. Cloud State is getting hot at the right time, winners of three straight games, coming into a key home matchup with the University of Mary. Every win is precious, but I would start voting for the Huskies as a top 25 team just yet, even with their victory over Minnesota Duluth.

St. Cloud State has won those three games by a combined total of 20-points, what that means is they have three pretty hard fought games. This could be another one, but what we saw last week, was just how valuable Craig Bagnell is to the Marauder offense. Mary has found themselves going in the wrong direction without him. They have been compeltely unable to run the ball consistently this season, in fact since the Marauders Dariouse Gravely ran for over 150 yards against Southwest Minnesota State, as they moved to 3-0 to begin the season, they have struggled to find any consistency in that attack.

Last week, the Marauders leading rusher was their receiver Elby Pope, who ran one time for 26-yards. Not to mention that Zach Roberson who started for Mary last week, threw four interceptions in the game.

St. Cloud has to have this game, so I have to believe at home, with or without Bagnell for Mary, the Huskies find a way to win the contest.


Northern State (3-3) at Bemidji State (3-3)
Last Year: 14-0, Northern State

Northern has come a long ways from their 0-3 start to begin the season. The Wolves have won three straight games, Jared Jacobson last week showed a different side. Going into last week, he had primarily been a run first quarterback, but he had a different idea last week.

Coach Tom Dosch opened up the air attack against Minot State at home, and Jacobson responded by throwing for 330 yards and four touchdowns against the Beavers. Well this week, the Wolves will see a different group of Beavers, Bemidji State. They seem to have something cooking after going into Bismarck and coming out with a victory over the University of Mary.

Bemidji State has won two straight themselves, over Minnesota Crookston and Mary.

These teams have a few things in common, despite Northern last week, the Wolves remain primarily a running team, as do the Beavers, and both do something else that is becomming a lost art in college football, they play defense.

So I would be surprised if either team scored more than 20-points this week, but I like Bemidji State at home to win their third straight.


Minnesota Duluth (5-1) at Minot State (1-5)

Minot being the new addition to the NSIC North this season, obviously these two teams didn't play last year. Minot is a better team than their 1-5 record shows, they have been in some other games, but haven't had a chance to close them out yet.

Minot has been getting hurt by the pass this season, they have been giving up about 261-yards to opponents through the air. Obviously if you want to win games in this conference that is too many. On the other side, the Bulldogs are 5-1, but there are some problems defensively.

The Bulldogs like to run the ball first and foremost and with their stable of runningbacks, and size upfront, argueably the best left side of an offensive line unit in division two college football, the problem is that the Beavers are ok against the run.

Don't look for a huge point spread here like you might expect when a 5-1 and 1-5 team meet up, but I like the Bulldogs to win a tough one in Minot.



Southwest Minnesota State (2-4) at Minnesota State University (6-0)
Last Year: 38-0, Minnesota State

Last week Southwest Minnesota State shocked Wayne State at home, and getting a big win for their program. The problem for the Mustangs, over the years has been being able to get a win like that two weeks in a row, to show that the program has turned around.

Well off the big win last week over Wayne, the task for the Mustangs doesn't get any easier. Here is why, in their 40-plus year program history, Southwest has never beaten Minnesota State. Now they didn't play for a lot of years during that time, but the Mustangs have never found a way to get a victory against the Mavericks. While, Southwest ran for 324 yards last week against a tough Wayne State defense, they now get to try to repeat that feat against Division II's best defense, in Minnesota State.

Southwest has also had problems handling the Mavericks ability to get their quarterback loose the last couple of seasons. While it has been Jon Wolf in those two games, who has hurt the Mustangs, Mitch Brosovich is just as scary with his legs as Wolf is, so that task won't be made any easier, even if Wolf is unable to go.

The Mavericks though are too strong upfront to think that anyone will run for 324 yards in a single game against them. I think if Southwest gets to 180 yards on the ground they'll be in the game, but that won't be easy either, so I am going to take that defense of the Mavericks, to come out of Mankato with the win, and remain unbeaten.



Concordia (2-4) at Sioux Falls (5-1)

Concordia picked a good week to turn it on and get a win, the most impressive part about the Golden Bears victory, was their play on the defensive side of the ball, as they held Upper Iowa to just six points while forcing six turnovers in the game.

Sioux Falls last week, took the trip to Winona State and played a tough game against the Warriors, only to come up short. The Cougars have nothing to hang their heads about, a lot of good teams have gone into Winona and lost over the years. Now though, its time to get serious for the Coo, if they want to make the playoffs, they effecitvely start now.

At times, the Cougars have gotten a little careless with the football. So that is one area they will need to be very careful. The only other thing the Cougars need to worry about is their mentality. Coach Jed Stugart preaches going 1-0 this week, and tries to keep the team focused on the game at hand. Never at any other time in his career at USF, will that mentality be tested. Let's face it, there is a really big game on their schedule next week, and keeping those young men focused on what lies ahead this week will be tested

As long as the Coo don't turn it over, and they stay focused on the task at hand this week, I think Sioux Falls should come out of this with the win. ]]> Aaron Ziemer http://www.d2messageboard.com/entry.php?691-NSIC-Week-7 http://www.d2messageboard.com/entry.php?676-Is-It-Too-Early-to-Talk-Playoffs Tue, 09 Oct 2012 00:19:20 GMT The playoff scenerio's for the Northern Sun look pretty interesting as we head down the stretch. Likely only two teams from the Northern Sun are going to get in to the Super Region 3 Playoffs. With the new Super Region structure, I think it would be unlikely to think anymore than 2-Northern Sun teams are getting in.

Who has the best chance? Well here's what we need to consider for now....

Front Runners

Minnesota State University-Mankato (6-0)- vs. Southwest, at Winona State, at Wayne State, vs. Sioux Falls, vs. UIU-- I think with the difficulty of this schedule the Mavericks can afford a loss, and still make the playoffs. The games, though that could change all of that, is if they lose to Winona State or USF. That would even them with one loss, they would be in the same division, and a loss to either would give one of those two teams the head to head advantage, so it would create and interesting and unpredictable scenerio at this point. Stay tuned!

Minnesota Duluth (5-1)-- at Minot State, vs. Bemidji State, at UM Crookston, vs. Mary, vs. Northern-- The tough thing about this schedule is its strength of schedule. Minnesota Duluth needs help from the teams they played in the NSIC South Division, they need teams like Southwest, Concordia, Augustana, and Winona State to win games. Especially, wins from Southwest and Concordia, because if Winona wins too many games they might find themselves competing for that spot. UMD does not play Minnesota State this year, so they will lose in strength of schedule to the Mavericks, but they do have a victory over Winona State head to head. The good news is that no matter what, Minnesota State, Winona State, and USF can not all finish with one loss. So I think at this point, it is still a pretty safe bet the Bulldogs will get in, AS LONG AS THEY RUN THE TABLE.

Winona State (5-1)-- at Wayne State, vs. Minnesota State, vs. Southwest, at Augustana, vs. Concordia-- Of the potential playoff teams this is the toughest remaining schedule. If the Warriors run the table through this schedule they will have earned their spot in the playoffs, that's what they will need to do. The good news is that they control things themselves, with a win over USF in tow, and one over MSU in two weeks. Its a tough road, but the Warriors have a chance to do it.

University of Sioux Falls (5-1)- vs. Concordia, at Augustana, vs. Upper Iowa, at Minnesota State, vs. Wayne State-- The road loss to Winona State hurts. But their situation is similar to Winona's, really. If they can run the table on this remaining schedule, I think they earn it, especially if Winona beats MSU in a couple of weeks because that means that MSU has two losses, and is likely out. The Coo is still very much alive.


With a Shot

St. Cloud State (4-2)- vs. Mary, at Northern State, vs. Bemidji State, at Minot State, at MSU Moorhead-- At 4-2 I think they are alive. The thing they have that no one else has is a victory over Minnesota Duluth. I think it is very likely the Huskies could run the table, they will need some help, but I wouldn't rule them out just yet. Their strength of schedule will be higher than UMD's, and the Huskies have the victory.

Wayne State (4-2)- vs. Winona State, at Concordia, vs. Minnesota State, at Upper Iowa, at Sioux Falls-- Their loss to Southwest hurts their chances big time. The Wildcats don't have a quality win yet, but they are 4-2, so they are probably still alive, especially because again if they run the table they would have some quality victories. However, they have some deficiencies offensively especially. They will need to return to their run stopping ways to make this list next week. ]]> Aaron Ziemer http://www.d2messageboard.com/entry.php?676-Is-It-Too-Early-to-Talk-Playoffs http://www.d2messageboard.com/entry.php?662-NSIC-Week-6 Wed, 03 Oct 2012 19:13:02 GMT I love techonology. My login issues aside last week, technology makes college football as great as it is. I was sitting in the Press Box at USF... I love techonology. My login issues aside last week, technology makes college football as great as it is.

I was sitting in the Press Box at USF on Saturday night, having just finished the post game show between Southwest and the University of Sioux Falls, when the Athletic Communications Director at Southwest, Kelly Loft, comes up to me and says "Ziemer, you need to see this!"

He then showed me the footage of the last second touchdown pass lifting St. Cloud State over Minnesota Duluth. Merely minutes after the game ended, anyone can see it. 10-years ago when I started calling Southwest games, we didn't even have live stats available from other games, and now we have that. Techonology is an amazing thing.

By the way, congratulations to the Huskies on the victory, after a couple of tough losses that crazy win is a way to save a season.

Between a season saving victory for the Huskies, another dominating showing by USF, and the first NSIC win for Minot State, last week was a pretty crazy week.

Let's go to the matchups this week:



Upper Iowa (2-3) at Concordia (1-4)
Last Year: 20-19 Concordia

At 2-3, Upper Iowa fell a field goal short of pulling what may have been the upset of the season so far in the Northern Sun last week, falling to Winona State 45-42.

There was no question the Peacocks had their chances. With 13-minutes to go in the game last week Cole Jaeschke hit Kyle Hosch on a 59-yard touchdown pass, to give the Peacocks a 35-31 lead. Unfortunately, it was short lived, Rayon Simmons led the Warriors back on the next drive to give them a 38-35 lead, then Jaeske was picked sixed by Jared Mitchell.

That gave the Peacocks a deficit too large to climb out, but it shows how far this team has come in just the last couple of years. A lot of times before teams turn the corners, they have a season where they lose a few close games, well Upper Iowa ended their season with three close losses, by four to Southwest Minnesota State, by three to Wayne State, and by one to Concordia. In fact, in that Concordia game, it was two touchdowns in the final 2:09 from Charles Gilbert that rallied the Golden Bears from a deficit to a one point win.

Gilbert is gone, as is the man who threw the passes to him. Concordia's offense still has some firepower, but the Golden Bears are really struggling on the other side of the ball. They are giving up 36-points a game, and over 200 yards a game on the ground. The one spot they have been decent is against the pass, but not a huge surprise, considering they have been playing from behind, teams just aren't throwing that much late against them.

I think Concordia is going to have a tough time stopping the Peacocks, and I will take Upper Iowa to get a big road win this week.



Minnesota State (5-0) at Augustana (2-3)
Last Year: 27-26, MSU

At 5-0, I don't know if there is a team that has outperformed Minnesota State University so far this year, in the Northern Sun, maybe the country. I say that because, I think you would be hard pressed to find a program that has dealt with the distractions this program has dealt with this year, and been still had success on the field.

Kind of reminds me a little of St. Cloud a couple of years ago, when the Huskies put together a huge season in the face of a vote by the school's students that would have ended the program.

One the surface one would think this game would be one of the higher profile contests on the schedule for the Mavericks this year, but Augustana, for a second straight year is failing to live up to their expectations.

Last week, the Vikings gave up 230 yards on the ground in their loss to Wayne State. In fact, the problem appears to be a little greater for the Vikings, they are 12th in the Northern Sun against the run. Remember, this is a defense that over the years has committed itself to stopping the run.

Talent wise, Augustana is scary, they can run, throw, and move the ball as effectively as anyone in the conference, but they aren't playing defense like they have in the past. Missed tackles is what killed them last week against Wayne, and to be honest, it will kill them this week against Minnesota State, only Minnesota Duluth runs the ball more effectively than the Mavericks do.

Look for Minnesota State to go into Sioux Falls and come out with a win, I like the Mavericks to move to 6-0.


St. Cloud State(2-3) at UM Crookston (1-4)
Last Year: 66-13, St. Cloud State

Winter looks like it could arrive in Crookston this week.

Minnesota Crookston still holds the most surprising upset of the season so far, beating Southwest Minnesota State two weeks ago, and snapping their 39 game losing streak.

That said, St. Cloud State's win last week was almost as impressive, after losing to Minnesota State and Sioux Falls early this season, the Huskies rallied in the game's final seconds, and on the last play from scrimmage, Phil Klaphake found Michael Walker wide open in the flat, for him to run it in for the game winning touchdown.

That win for the Huskies keeps a slim hope for the playoffs alive. The Huskies would have to win out, but keep in mind, they already have beaten Minnesota Duluth, arguably their toughest competition remaining on the schedule.

Expect, a slow, sloppy, and maybe frozen track in Crookston on Saturday, but I like the Huskies to come out of Crookston with their playoff hopes in tact, and a big road victory on Saturday.


Minot State (1-4) at Northern State (2-3)

It's too bad both of these teams are under .500 because I have a feeling htis could be one of the best games in the Northern Sun this week.

Northern rolls off of their 45-7 victory over MSU Moorhead, their second straight following an 0-3 start. While Minot State comes into Aberdeen off of their first win in the NSIC, 32-21 over the University of Mary.

Give the Beavers credit, the Marauders are a solid team, but so is Minot. The Beavers shut down Dariouse Gravely last week, holding him to just 53 yards rushing, on 21-carries.

They will get another challenge on the ground this week, the Wolves are a spread option football team. However, the Wolves showed a willingness to open it up a bit last week against MSU Moorhead, Jared Jacobson threw for 280-yards and three touchdowns in the game.

I look at that as the key to Saturday, if Northern can effectively throw the ball, the Beavers have been hurt threw the air more than they have on the ground this year. Minot State is about middle of the road against both defensively, but teams have been able to throw for nearly 250 yards a game against them.

I expect it to be pretty close, and Northern's passing game hasn't been consistent yet. I think it comes down to turnovers, and despite inconsistency in the passing game, Jacobson has only thrown one interception on the season. Because of that, and because they are at home, I will take the Wolves to win their third straight.


Bemidji State (2-3) at Mary (3-2)
Last Year: 49-21, U of Mary

If you like statistics this one could be an interesting matchup. The University of Mary has the Northern Sun's top passing attack. The Marauders average 322 yrads a game through the air. While on the other side, Bemidji State is number two in the conference against the pass, giving up about 155-yards a game through the air.

The Beavers are also 13th in the Northern Sun in scoring offense, averaging just over 18-points a game, while the University of Mary is seventh in the conference in scoring defense giving up nearly 28-points a game.

Lance Rongstad returned to the Beavers offense last week and posted an efficient 11/18 passing with a couple of touchdowns last week against Minnesota Crookston and overall the Beavers were a little more impressive last week in thei victory over Minnesota Crookston, than they had been at any other point this season.

Zach Roberson made his first start at quarterback for the University of Mary. He did throw for over 300-yards in that start, and two touchdowns, but he also through a pair of interceptions in the contest.

The troubling thing from Mary's offense that has made me cautious with them this year returned last week. Even with Dariouse Gravely, the Marauders were unable to consistently run the football, and that put a lot of pressure on Roberson in his first start. The Beavers will be tough against the run, and we already said they can play the pass.

I am wary of the Marauders only because there is some uncertainty at their offense's most important position. If I could tell you today, that Bagnell was going to start and be healthy I would maybe lean to the Marauders, because I can't, I think Bemidji's defense could rule the day, I will take the Beavers.



Wayne State (4-1) at Southwest Minnesota State (1-4)
Last Year: 52-29, Wayne State

Wayne State ran for 230 yards last week against Augustana, a lot of that was due to a lot of missed tackles by the Vikings. I would be shocked though if the Wildcats didn't have similar results this week aaginst Southwest, because the Mustangs have been plagued by the same problem defensively this season.

Wayne State brings a host of matchup problems for Southwest, first is their ability to run the football. Nick Pulscher has rushed for over 400 yards and four touchdowns on the season, and he has help in the backfield.

Southwest has given up at least 200 yards on the ground in four of their five games this year, the one they didn't, their 32-30 win over Northern State (the Wolves ran for 190 that day).

Further complicating things for the Mustangs Wayne is second in the league against the run, holding opponents to 90-yards a game, and an impressive 2.1-yards per carry. While they can be hurt a little through the air, teams have to struggle against the league's best pass rusher in Richard Daniel, and a defensive philosophy that isn't afraid to dial up the pressure and get after the quarterback.

It will be closer than last year's game because it is in Marshall, but Wayne shouldn't have too much trouble with the Mustangs on Saturday. I like Wayne State.



Sioux Falls (5-0) at Winona State (4-1)

Fans of Sioux Falls have something to cheer about in the USF Cougars. They are a special group, a strong 5-0 start, looked as impressive as we expected.

The Cougars are balanced, and explosive on offense. Quarterback Taylor Perkins, has the ability to shred a defense, he is strong armed, mobile, and has an ability to make plays. The Cougars ground game led by Kristian Porter and Jordan Taylor is solid, and they have a special group of receivers from converted quarterback Carrington Hanna to deep threat Jeremiah Oates.

From what I have seen, they not only look like the best team in that city, they might be the best team in the NSIC South Division.

They also have a great coaching staff, including their defensive line coach Jared Schwanz who reads this column every week (there's your shout out Jared).

All of that said, they will get their toughest test of 2012 on Saturday when they travel to Winona State. The Warriors should be able to move the ball on the ground against the Cougars, they showed some deficiency last week against Southwest on the ground. Rayon Simmons is sure to make that hurt this week unless they have gotten that issue addressed.

Still though, Winona can be a really tough place to play. I think the game will come down to whatever defense can get the extra stop. A turnover, could be pivotal, because I think both offenses will put up points this week.

That said, at the risk of being called a hater by Coach Schwanz, I think Winona has earned the right to be favored at home. This one could set the tone for the NSIC South Division Title race, but I will take Winona, in a high scoring nail biter.


MSU Moorhead (0-5) at Minnesota Duluth (4-1)
Last Year: 49-21, UMD

The only thing scarier than getting ready for Minnesota Duluth, is getting ready to take on the Bulldogs when they are coming off a loss. Or how about getting ready to face the Bulldogs when they are coming off a last second loss?

I am not going to make any bones about it, the Bulldogs are going to win on Saturday, but I can't help but start to wonder if teams haven't been able to see a flaw in that once great defensive unit.

While, the Bulldogs remain tough against the run, allowing just 100-yards a game. They have been giving up 29-points a contest, including 51-last week at St. Cloud State, and that err of invincibility seems to be gone from the defensive unit.

Look for them to try and make a statement this week against Minnesota State Moorhead, who is coming off a 45-7 loss to Northern State last week.

I like the Bulldogs big! ]]> Aaron Ziemer http://www.d2messageboard.com/entry.php?662-NSIC-Week-6 http://www.d2messageboard.com/entry.php?623-Northern-Sun-Round-4 Wed, 19 Sep 2012 20:32:15 GMT There are some quality matchups this week in the Northern Sun. Augustana at Minnesota Duluth, and Winona State at the University of Mary will... There are some quality matchups this week in the Northern Sun. Augustana at Minnesota Duluth, and Winona State at the University of Mary will highlight a couple of the big games in the conference this week.

But don't think for a second that it will be easy for Concordia in Northern, or for St. Cloud State at Wayne State. Heck, even (against my pick) USF is looking for a 4-0 start in the conference.

It's an interesting week in the Northern Sun, here is how I see it going!


Bemidji State (1-2) at University Sioux Falls (3-0)

I need to give credit where it is due, I thought the Cougars could be in for an upset last week, and for three quarters it looked to be a battle. With USF leading 26-20 after three quarters the Cougars turned up the intensity in a key fourth quarter, and rattled off 16-unanswered points in the game's most important quarter.

Cougar Quarterback Taylor Perkins tossed 4-touchdowns and threw for 287-yards on the day, if it wasn't for UMD's Chace Vogler, he probably would have been the Northern Sun's Offensive Player of the Week.

What impresses me about Perkins is how he distributes the ball, four Cougar receivers had three catches or more. Saturday against Minot, the big plays went to Jermiah Oates, he caught six passes for 126 yards and three of those four touchdowns.

That passing game will be a big test for Bemidji State, who has to be disappointed with their 1-2 start on the season. The Beavers struggled to beat Upper Iowa in Bemidji in the opener, lost to Minnesota State, then fell to Wayne State at home.

The disappointing thing for Bemidji is that last week, they held Wayne's offense in check, but despite outgaining the Wildcats by more than 200-yards last week, and throwing for 348 yards in the game, the Beavers couldn't convert consistently on third down, and couldn't turn drives into points.

Like many of the games this week, I expect a battle, but I like the Cougars in this one. USF gets the 4-0 start, Bemidji loses their third straight.



MSU Moorhead (0-3) at Minnesota State-Mankato (3-0)

The Dragons scored more points last week, than they had in their first two games combined, but still came up well short to Upper Iowa, in a 51-33 defeat.

On the positive side though Jake Hodge threw for 222-yards and a pair of touchdowns in the game.

What last week showed though is that the Dragons still have a long ways to go, and playing against this Minnesota State Mankato defense this week, is going to be a challenge this group has not yet seen.

It was that defensive unit, that allowed the Traveling Training Kit to return to Mankato for the first time in four years.

The NSIC Defensive Player of the Week , Maverick Defensive Tackle Chris Schaudt is fresh off his six tackle two sack performance against St. Cloud State last week. Most impressive though, was the way that as a group they held the Huskies to just 220 yards of offense, including just 23 yards on the ground.

That defense will shut down the young Dragons this week. I look for the Mavericks to win big at home.


Concordia (1-2) at Northern State (0-3)

Even though the Wolves don't have a win to show for it yet in the 2012 season they have played virtually everyone tough. Last week it was Winona State that the Wolves gave a battle too, falling 42-32 to the Warriors.

The Wolves had a tough time stopping Rayon Simmons last week, he rushed for 177 yards against them this week. But who doesn't struggle to stop Simmons.

I think the big thing in this game is actually on the other side of the football, and something that Concordia has to be very concerned with. The Golden Bear defense, gave up 70-points last week to Minnesota Duluth. 42 of those points went unanswered following a late first half touchdown by the Bulldogs.

Through three games the Golden Bears have given up 126-points, only Minnesota State Moorhead and Minnesota Crookston have given up more. By the way, 24 of those points they gave up, were to the Minnesota Crookston, in a game they had to rally back to win. In all, the Golden Bears gave up 675-yards to the Bulldogs last week, and 300 of those yards were on the ground. That was the second time this season (3-games) Concordia has given up 300 yards rushing.

Obviously, Northern likes to run the football, between Jon Hughes and quarterback Jared Jacobson the Wolves have the ability to run the ball well, especially if their offense is running to option well, against the Golden Bears, that could work really well or it could backfire completely. It all depends on how well Concordia is going to play to its assignments defensively.

Even when you get to Jacobson though, he is a problem to bring down, and Hughes can be elusive, and anticipates the hole well. Either has the potential to rush for 100 yards on any given day.

Looking into the forecast, I see the day is supposed to be windy again in Northern, like it was on the day the Golden Bears struggled early at Crookston. That could hamper Concordia's passing attack, but so could the Wolves secondary, I think that group is one of the most underrated in the Northern Sun. Marquis Mulkey is a solid cover corner, combined with solid safety play from Logan Dosch and Jayson Geditz, this group is capable of shutting down opponent passing attacks. Further, Concordia has been prone to the interception so far this year.

I think turnovers make the difference, but I am taking Northern to get the win.



Southwest Minnesota State (1-2) at Minnesota Crookston (0-3)

Second halves have not been too friendly to the Southwest Minnesota State Mustangs this season. Through three games, Southwest is being outscored 28-14 in the third quarter. The fourth quarter has been worse, the Mustangs have been outscored 46-11.

That stat alone explains why the Mustangs have found themselves seconds away from 0-3 to start the season.

The Mustangs have one of the top offenses in the Northern Sun, and they average about 5.5 yards a play, that's not bad, but a rebuilt defense is still giving up an average of 5.8 yards a play, including a 5.0 yards per rush.

Why would a team do anything but run the ball on the Mustangs? That's exactly what the University of Mary figured out in the second half, and run the ball they did, as Dariouse Gravely rushed for 150-yards in the game, most in this young season by any Marauder rusher.

That is going to have to be the area of focus for Southwest against a Golden Eagle team that is run heavy. Richard Haley is a legitimate Division I style runner, and he is going to give the Mustangs fits on Saturday.

If the Mustangs don't show more consistency in the second half of games Crookston's conference game losing streak could end on Saturday, that said, I expect Southwest to come out of Crookston with a hard fought win.

I expect it to be close but I will give the Mustangs a slight edge to get to 2-2.


Winona State (2-1) at University of Mary (2-1)

Winona State rebounded from a disappointing loss at Minnesota Duluth last week, with a scrappy home win over Northern State.

John Tiegland has played well for the Warriors to this point in the season, as he has thrown for 635 yards and six touchdowns, and we have well documented Rayon Simmons over the years here.

But Chiki Ojika was the one who iced the game last week for the Warriors. Quite honestly, he has the coolest name to pronounce in the Northern Sun (Chee-Kee Oh-chee-kah), but it was the 5'8 junior who broke free on a 34-yard run with about two and a half minutes to go to put the game away for the Warriors.

The run by Ojika was a direct response to a Northern touchdown that had just cut the Warrior lead to 35-25, and his breaking free put the game out of reach.

On the other side of the ball, the Marauders welcomed back Dariouse Gravely last week, and he instantly jump started the Mary rushing attack. Gravely rushed for 150-yards in the Marauder victory over Southwest.

He could be what Mary was missing to give them the offensive balance aside of Craig Bagnell. Tyler Steffan didn't play a lot for Mary against Southwest, and I believe he was only targeted one time, it ended in an overthrow and an SMSU interception. Something wasn't right with him last week, but I am not sure on his availability for Saturday.

At the start of the year, I liked Winona to be in position to go to the playoffs this season, a road game in Bismarck is the type of game a playoff team wins. If Winona wants to win, they have to not let Gravely do what he did last week to Southwest, and they need to find a way to get after Bagnell and that quick rhythym passing game.

I am going against my initial gut feeling, and may regret this one, because Mary was impressive late last week, but I am going to take Winona to get the road win.



Minot State (0-3) at Upper Iowa University (1-2)

I can't imagine there has been a lot of NSIC games played from schools that are further a part than the two playing today. The 691 mile trip can be made in just a shade over 11 and a half hours (according to my friends at google).

It is 60-miles longer for the Beavers to go to Upper Iowa, than it is for them to drive to Winona, and nearly 200-miles longer than Wayne State to drive to Minnesota Duluth.

That being said, Upper Iowa picked up their first win of the season last week, by beating Minnesota State Moorhead.

The Peacocks used that high powered offense to light the scoreboard up to the tune of 51 points. However, they also gave up 33-to the Dragons.

Minot last week gave USF their best battle to date, putting up 351 yards of offense, and scoring 20-points in the game, keeping themselves into it until late.

The Beavers though have had that problem this year, they have been outscored 37-6 in the fourth quarter of games so far this season. Zac Cunha started at quarterback for Minot last week, and has completed just 18 of a season high 39 pass attempts in the loss, he was also picked off three times.

While the Peacock offensive machine rolled up 248 yards on the ground led by Raymond Bradley who rushed for 138 in the game last week, and Cole Jaeschke threw for 304 yards and four touchdowns last week.

Minot is going to have problems stopping the Peacocks, they did a good job a couple of weeks ago at home against Wayne State, I am just not sure they will be able to go on the road and pull out a win in Fayette, nearly 700 miles from home.

So I will take the Peacocks.



Augustana (2-1) at Minnesota Duluth (3-0)

As you would imagine, Augustana's 61-0 win last week over Minnesota Crookston was pretty one sided. But then again, so was Minnesota Duluth's 70-24 routing of Concordia.

Dajon Newell barely had to break a sweat in rushing for 122 yards, it took him just 14-carries, and Josh Hanson threw a nifty 20-passes, while completing 13 of them for 195 yards and four touchdowns in the Viking onslaught.

The big thing the Vikings will need to do this week, is continue the job they did last week against Minnesota Crookston, they frustrated Richard Haley and the Golden Eagle runnning game all day. Haley finished with just 70 yards rushing in the contest.

That will be a tougher task against Minnesota Duluth front line, loaded with talent. The Bulldogs bullied Concordia last week, rushing for 365 yards in the game, and letting Chace Vogler loose as he threw for 310 yards and three touchdowns.

In fact, Saturday night's matchup by the lake, is a battle of the top two rushing offenses in the Northern Sun. It is also a battle of the two top scoring offenses in the league, Minnesota Duluth averaging more than 50-points a game, the Vikings averaging over 40 a game.

Something tells me that the Bulldog defense although not as dominant as it has been in previous years, will make things a lot tougher on Dajon Newell and Josh Hanson and company. Hanson would have to be really good on Saturday night to give the Vikings a chance. And he may be able to strike a time or two, afterall 10 touchdown passes in three games is nothing to ignore.

But, the Bulldogs will take the run away, and that has been the difference for the Vikings so far this year, so I like the Bulldogs to win by at least two scores at home.

Extra Point: The Bulldogs have won six of the eight meetings between the two schools, including five staright. ]]> Aaron Ziemer http://www.d2messageboard.com/entry.php?623-Northern-Sun-Round-4 http://www.d2messageboard.com/entry.php?601-NSIC-Week-3 Wed, 12 Sep 2012 21:14:14 GMT Caution, critical games ahead in the Northern Sun this week. -USF is 2-0 and looking like they could be the real deal, but a familiar face could... Caution, critical games ahead in the Northern Sun this week.

-USF is 2-0 and looking like they could be the real deal, but a familiar face could put the Cougars on upset alert.

-It's also a big week for St. Cloud, hosting Minnesota State, with the Traveling Training Kit, and quite possibly a playoff spot hanging in the balance

All of that and more in the NSIC Notebook Week 3....

Minnesota Crookston (0-2) at Augustana (1-1)

We told you last week that if Augustana wasn't on their game, they could stumble in Bismarck, I just didn't expect that to happen two years in a row to this Vikings squad.

Three missed field goals (one blocked), and three turnovers (two interceptions and a fumble) could cause any team in the Northern Sun, to lose to any other team, and that's exactly what happened last week to the Vikings.

Talent wise, this group should be one of the top teams in the Northern Sun. Josh Hanson is a Senior quarterback, with a strong arm, and solid mobility, Dajon Newell is one of the top backs in the conference, receiver Sam Gebhardt is quickly emerging, and yet the Vikings have been less than impressive through two weeks. Add to it, one of the top linebackers in the country in Austin Luecke leading the defense its hard to figure out how this team stumbles from time to time.

After a slow and disappointing start last season, kept them out of the playoffs, one would start to think some lessons in Augustana should be learned. In case the Vikings didn't notice, the NSIC South is pretty tough this season, Minnesota State is 2-0, so is the University of Sioux Falls (and don't think for a second that won't be a city wide war), Wayne State, Winona State, Southwest, and Concordia shouldn't be taken lightly either. Its time for the Vikings to get it figured out.

Thankfully for the Vikings they have Minnesota Crookston this week, a team they have outscored 142-7 in their three previous meetings.

Crookston has never scored more than 7 points against Augie in three meetings. Their first meeting came in 2004, when they lost 34-7. Since, the Golden Eagles lost 49-0, and 59-0 in the other two meetings, the most recent coming in 2009.

So what do those games have to do with this one, absolutely nothing. Crookston last week gave Concordia everything they could handle and then some, and Richard Haley can run the ball.

Augustana likes to win big at home, and I wouldn't expect anything less from them this week, I will take the Vikings.



Wayne State (2-0) at Bemidji State (1-1)

After a 2-0 start for Wayne State, they will get a little more of a test this week. Nothing against the Wildcats schedule to open the season, but they opened with Minnesota State Moorhead, a young team in the middle of a long rebuilding process, and Minot State, a newcomer, who is adjusting to the Northern Sun and Division II Football.

Wayne did what they had to do in those two games, they won, convincingly. They also played solid defensively, allowing just six points in both games. Last week for their efforts, Wayne State linebacker recorded a team high 11-tackles, two sacks, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery on his way to being named the NSIC Defensive Player of the Week.

They will be tested more this week. Bemidji's Lance Rongstad led the Beavers back in week one against Upper Iowa to pull out a win at home. However, the Week 1 NSIC Offensive Player of the Week, didn't have his best game responding to that. Last week, fumbled the ball five times, he lost four of them, as a team the Beavers fumbled six times and lost five of them. He also completed less than 50-percent of his passes, in the wind, which made it more difficult for the Beavers to move the ball.

When they didn't fumble, they struggled on third downs last week against the Mavericks finishing 2 of 12.

I look for that stat to be key this week, because through two weeks, Wayne has kept their opponents success on third down under control. MSU Moorhead was 5 of 16 on third down in the opener, and Minot was 6 of 18 last week. That means through two games they have done a nice job of forcing their opponents into third and long, where Bemidji spent too much time last week.

I like Wayne to come out of Bemidji with a win this week.

Extra Point: Through 16-meetings this series is practically even, Wayne holds a slight 9-7 lead in the series, and is 3-3 in games played in Bemidji.



Upper Iowa (0-2) at MSU Moorhead (0-2)

Upper Iowa nearly stunned Bemidji in the opener two weeks ago, but last week, they ran into a St. Cloud team that meant business. The Huskies came into Fayette and spoiled the inagural night in the upgraded stadium.

Through two weeks, we have learned that Minnesota State Moorhead has a ways to go. The Dragons have been outscored through two games 94-16 on the season, so far.

Obviously they are't playing either of those teams this week, but Upper Iowa can be dangerous, and I like the weapons they have on offense. As long as the Peacocks avoid too many turnovers, they should be able to go into Moorhead and come wout with a fairly decisive victory.


Sioux Falls (2-0) at Minot State (0-2)

At 2-0 in the Northern Sun life is good for the Cougars. They turned heads and thumped St. Cloud State in the opener, and last week dispacted of any notions of a let down against MSU Moorhead early, with a 45-10 thrashing.

My prediction is if the Cougars have a let down, it comes this week. Last week was still a big week for them, home opener in a Division II Conference, and an opportunity to beat another Division II, new opponent.

But there's something about this matchup that just has me thinking the Cougars may be primed for an upset. Minot hasn't played that well in their two games, but they like the Cougars are looking for a chance to get a Northern Sun win. Defensively last week, though, they were able to keep control of what can be a high powered explsive Wayne State offense.

Further, these two teams know each other, well, in fact so well they played each other twice last season, despite losing both games, Minot played them tough both times. What really has hurt Minot State is the turnovers, they are a -6 through two games in the take away/give away department, that has to improve.

I don't have a lot of science behind this pick yet, and I am basically calling this on a hunch, but I think the undefeated run for the Cougars ends on Saturday.



Northern State (0-2) at Winona State (1-1)

Last week, Northern State came within seconds of beating Southwest Minnesota State. The Mustangs facing a 4th down and 15, with roughly 20-seconds left, picked an opportune time to connect on a 47 yard pass, that put SMSU on the Northern seven yard line.

The Wolves then could do nothing but watch the Mustangs make a 26-yard field goal as time expired to take the victory.

Honestly, I think the Wolves coaching staff handled the game about as well as it could be handled, the wind would not allow them to stretch their lead in the final moments with a field goal, and outside of a delay of game penalty on 4th and 4, that made it 4th and 9, there really isn't much more they could have done.

Northern's running game can be tough to stop, but the Wolves will need to be more consistent through the air to beat teams in this conference. Jared Jacobson, didn't complete a pass until the final drive of the first half, that can't happen if you want to win consistently in this league.

The Warriors are going to be hungry coming off a disappointing showing in Duluth, a 38-16, defeat, that left the Warriors beaten.

John Tiegland did throw for 375 yards in the game, the fifth most yards in a single game in school history. The Warriors though were unable to stop the rushing attack against Minnesota Duluth, and that will have to be Coach Sawyer's main focus this week. As long as they shutdown the run, Winona is going to run away with it.

Northern last week gave up over 100-yards to Gannon Moore and Southwest, so look for a big day from Rayon Simmons. I like the Warriors to bounce back.


University of Mary (2-0) at Southwest Minnesota State (1-1)

Coming into the season, Lance Schuveiller wasn't even the starting kicker for Southwest. Now, due to a season ending injury to All conference punter and kicker Mike Wenk, the Mustangs have turned to the Senior to handle both the punting and kicking duties.

I look at this game, as one that could honestly go either way, because both squads are so similar.

The number to look for this week is 200, that is the line I am going to set on the number of snaps from scrimmage in this game. Mary likes to pick up the tempo, get to the line and go, and Southwest, like Mary likes to throw the ball around the yard. I look for a fairly long game on Saturday night, with a lot of offensive snaps, if betting were legal, and I was a betting man, I would bet the over on that line.

Craig Bagnell comes in as the Northern Sun's Offensive Player of the Week, after orchestrating yet another Marauder victory over Augustana. Bagnell tossed four touchdowns in the game, but he and the Mary offense were aided by an opportunistic defense, that forced three turnovers in the game. In fact, through two contest the Marauders have forced seven turnovers. As great as Bagnell has played, that's the reason the Marauders are 2-0.

Outside of forcing the turnovers, the Marauders have been vulnerable defensively. They gave up over 400 yards through the air in the opener to Concordia, and will give up some points.

The game will basicially come down to things you can't predict, like turnovers. Southwest quarterback Tyler Peschong threw 14 INT's last season, further he threw a pick six, for Northern State last week to open the game. Those mistakes will have to be avoided if Southwest is going to win.

But at home, I will take the Mustangs on Satuday night.



Minnesota State (2-0) at St. Cloud State (1-1)

Three losses and you don't get into the playoffs in this region, with Duluth still on the schedule for St. Cloud State, the Huskies need this one on Saturday against Minnesota State.

Playoff teams don't start 1-2, and that is exactly what St. Cloud State is trying to avoid. Adding a little spice to an already critical week three game, is that the Huskies and Mavericks are playing for Division II's most unique traveling trophy, the Traveling Training Kit.

St. Cloud returned to form last week, Michael Walker ran for 109 yards, Phil Klaphake threw a couple of touchdowns, while completing 19 of 28 passes for 243-yards. As a team, the Huskies put together a balanced attack on their way to the victory.

It will also be the toughest test today for Minnesota State. The Mavericks rolled over Minot State, and then beat up on a Bemidji team that didn't play up to their ability last week. Quarterback Jon Wolf leads the Mavericks in rushing yards and touchdowns, rushing for 209 yards and four touchdowns, and while he can certainly run, but he has been inconsistent in those two games throwing the football. He has completed just 17 of 34 passes for 200 yards.

Honestly, I think the lack of balance gets the Mavericks beat this week. I will take St. Cloud State to prove they are back on the right track and to keep the Traveling Training Kit in St. Cloud for the fourth straight season.


Minnesota Duluth (2-0) at Concordia St. Paul (1-1)

If Concordia didn't think it was a lot of fun trying to stop Richard Haley in their 34-24 come from behind win in Crookston last week, they are preparing for a nightmare in St. Paul on Saturday.

Minnesota Duluth runs the ball like they invented the zone running scheme. Last week, the Bulldogs ran the ball for 282 yards against Winona State. Led by Austin Sikorski who carried it 16 times for 132 yards and two scores over Winona.

Concordia should be able to move the ball through the air, both Southwest and Winona had success attacking the Bulldogs through the air, the only problem for Concordia has been the interceptions. Golden Bear quarterback James Peterson has thrown five of them through two games, mistakes that can't be made if Concordia has any hope of beating the Wolves.

Even if the Golden Bears don't turn it over though, they will have trouble stopping the Bulldogs on the ground. Haley ran for a 186 yards last week against them, and its not getting any easier this week.

I will take Minnesota Duluth. ]]> Aaron Ziemer http://www.d2messageboard.com/entry.php?601-NSIC-Week-3 http://www.d2messageboard.com/entry.php?584-Week-2-Northern-Sun-Matchups Thu, 06 Sep 2012 19:59:41 GMT Week 1, in the Norther Sun was a pretty wild and crazy weekend, filled with a surprising upset, and a late touchdown victory for another school. ... Week 1, in the Norther Sun was a pretty wild and crazy weekend, filled with a surprising upset, and a late touchdown victory for another school.

There were a couple of expected things that happened, Minnesota Duluth and Winona State showed dominance, and their week one victories set the stage for what might be the biggest Week 2 football game in the history of this conference.

Am I overstating it? Maybe--Maybe not. I think Winona is primed for a run this season, but have they elevated their game to the level of Duluth? Saturday we'll find out, but in violating every news writing rule known to man, I am going to make you wait until the end to find out my pick.


Minot State (0-1) at Wayne State (1-0)

Minot State was beaten pretty soundly by Minnesota State-Mankato last week, while Wayne State beat up on the other Minnesota State-Moorhead.

Minot really struggled to move the ball last week against the Mavericks. They lost 44-yards on the ground, and only accounted for 32 yards on offense. Additionally the Beavers threw for just 76-yards and quarterback Bryan Jorgenson was picked off twice and completed just 9 of 18 passes.

Last week, there wasn't much that Wayne didn't do well, they moved the ball, to the tune of 318 yards on the ground, quarterback Nate Most threw for 274 yards and three touchdowns, he spread it to a few different targets, and defensively they contained the Dragons, keeping them under 250 yards of total offense.

The Beavers will have their hands full traveling to Wayne on Saturday, including trying to figure out how to stop Richard Daniel. Daniel, is one of the, if not the top pass rusher in the Northern Sun. He finished tied for the NSIC lead in sacks last year with eight, and he's off to another strong start this season in his Senior campaign. Daniel had two sacks last week against Moorhead.

I will take Wayne State!


MSU Moorhead (0-1) at Sioux Falls (1-0)

What do you do for an encore when you come into the league and resoundingly beat the team that many had pegged to be the top team in the Northern Sun this season?

That's the question the USF coaches, players, and fans have to be asking themselves. I will admit it, I under estimated the Cougars. The win last week over St. Cloud State was nothing short of stunning, not just by winning the game, but by how they won.

They took away St. Cloud's running game, and made things miserable for the Pre-Season NSIC North Division Offensive Player of the Year, Huskies quarterback Phil Klaphake. He finsihed 15/37 passing, for 225 yards, a touchdown and an interception.

Moorhead ran into a good Wayne State team last week, what USF showed last Thursday night, means the road isn't going to get any easier for the young Dragons. Infact, Minnesota State-Moorhead listed 11-freshmen (7 on offense, 4 on defense) as starters. There is no question they are trying to build the program in Moorhead, but I don't see a let down for the Cougars this week.

I will take USF in a landslide, in their home opener.



Concordia St. Paul (0-1) at Minnesota Crookston (0-1)

Last week, Concordia outgained Mary, putting up nearly 600-yards of offense. They contained Mary's rushing to just one yard on the ground. The Golden Bears had a 400-yard passer, a one hundred yard rusher, and two receivers with more than 100-yards receiving, and still lost.

Why? Because they had five turnovers.

James Peterson threw for 431 yards, two touchdowns and four interceptions in his first start in two seasons.

Last week, Crookston gave up 58-points and nearly 500 yards of total offense to Winona State.

While the Golden Eagles will try to control the clock by running the football, Concordia doesn't need a lot of time to score. The explosive Golden Bears averaged about 6.5 yards a play last week--Winona averaged 7.4 yards per play against Crookston.

Not to mention, Concordia is known for stacking the box defensively, and selling out to stop the run. Why would they do any different this week? That's not a great matchup for Crookston.

You see where I am going with this, look for fewer turnovers from Concordia this week as they get the bugs worked out, I like the Golden Bears to spoil the home opener for the Golden Eagles, and get a one sided victory in Crookston.


Augustana (1-0) at University of Mary (1-0)
Last Year: 10-0 Mary

Anyone remember last season? The week two meeting between these two schools is virtually a deja vu of that game last year.

A week two meeting between the two teams in Bismarck, North Dakota turned into a defensive struggle that Mary won. It was surprising, and don't think the same thing couldn't happen this year.

Mary didn't run the ball that well that day, just like they didn't run it well at Concordia on Saturday. Why do I bring up Concordia now? Well, they and Augustana play the same type of aggressive, take chances, to stuff the run type of defense, so Mary has a game plan and the talent and passing game to beat it, so if Augie isn't on their game, don't think they couldn't trip up.

That said, the difference between the Vikings in their 0-2 start last year, and the team they are now is really about one guy. Dajon Newell, he has brought stability to their rushing game. Newell last week rushed for 106 yards last week in Augie's season opening victory. In the game last year against the Vikings, he carried it just five times for six yards.

Despite winning last week, Mary gave up 588 yards to Concordia, if they hadn't picked off James Peterson four times in the game, they probably wouldn't had been so fortunate.

While Peterson was starting his first game in nearly two years, Augustana's quarterback Josh Hanson is in his third year as Augustana's starting quarterback, and has been nothing short of spectacular for the Vikings, over that time.

While originally I was leaning towards Mary, I think their victory over Augie last year probably hurts them a little on Saturday, because they will face a solid Viking squad that will want to make a point.

I will take Augustana.



SMSU (0-1) at Northern State (0-1)
Last Year: 30-17, Northern State

As long as we are on the subject of deja vu games, lets do the same thing for this one. It was week one last year, when Southwest went over to Aberdeen to take on Northern State, and the Wolves popped the Mustangs in the mouth in Tom Dosch's second season as the head coach.

The Wolves have built some energy with their program, their three game winning streak to close last season built some excitment around football in Aberdeen for the first time in a few years. Those wins included a victory to the team they lost to last week, Augustana.

That loss last week, was the first defeat for Jared Jacobson the Wolves starting quarterback, but even in the loss Jacobson rushed for 153 yards in the game. The Wolves run a speed option type of offense, its unique, not always pretty, but it normally is pretty effective, why, because the option takes advantage of defensive breakdowns, and early in the season, that is a concern for coaches.

That is especially a concern for Southwest, who last week, showed some youth defensively, sometimes playing a little over aggressive and opening up big running lanes on the cut back for Minnesota Duluth. Assignement defense for the Mustangs will be a big key to whether or not they get out of Aberdeen with a win.

I expect Southwest to pass, and have some success through the air, afterall Tyler Peschong did throw for over 300-yards last week against Duluth. I expect Northern to run the ball effectively. I expect some points--ok I expect a lot of points.

I will take the Mustangs on the road though.


Bemidji State (1-0) at Minnesota State (1-0)

Lance Rongstad picked up offensive player of the week honors last week, by orchestrating a late fourth quarter drive that allowed Bemidji to escape with a 25-23 win over Upper Iowa.

That's what a good quarterback does. Regardless of what has gone on the rest of the day, he finds a way to pick his team up and rally them late in the fourth quarter. He got his guys to forget they had let a 19-7 lead slip away in the fourth quarter. He got his guys to forget that on the four previous series, prior to that late touchdown the Beavers had gone fumble, punt, punt, punt. And he rallied them for one game defining drive.

Rongstad showed me something else last week, he showed me that he can be a threat with his arm as well as his feet.

Rongstad threw four touchdowns last week, and for 228 yards while completing 24 of 38 passing. That's efficient quarterback play.

On the other side of the ball, Mankato did pretty much what you expected them to, they went on the road and ran over Minot to the tune of 44-10. I am sure it was good for the Mavericks to just get away from the distraction on the field, which honestly has nothing to do with the players on it.

It could be tougher for Bemidji to run the ball again, especially if Dustin Kroeplin doesn't play again this week. Mankato held the Beavers to a -44 yards rushing last week.

Further, Minnesota State is going to test Bemidji's defense big time this week, John Wolf played pretty well for Minnesota State, and like the case with Northern will make their running game tough to defend. Wolf rushed for 80 yards and a touchdown last week in that win over Minot.

Being that the Mavericks are playing at home, I will take them to get the victory.

St. Cloud State (0-1) at Upper Iowa (0-1)

I don't know that I would have been the only person to say I didn't expect this to be a game between a pair of 0-1's on the season.

Certainly, the Huskies loss last week to USF was a surprise, but equally as shocking maybe is what would have happened if a 46-yard field goal from Steven Sandoval hadn't fallen short to finish the game, in Bemidji.

Upper Iowa is headed the right direction, no one is going to argue that. We saw the emergence of another Peacock running back this week, as UIU's Raymond Bradley rushed for 128-yards on 17-carries, against what is traditionally a pretty stout rushing defense in Bemidji. The Chowan transfer, redshirted last season, and this year is a junior eligibility wise. He certainly adds another weapon for the Peacocks.

It will be an emotional day in Fayette, with the grand opening of the new stadium, and their home opener. Part of the face lift, included new lights at the stadium, which allows the 6 p.m. kickoff, so certainly there is plenty to play for, for the Peacocks.

And, while it would be easy to think St. Cloud State could be hanging their heads after their loss last week, I just don't think that will happen.

Scott Underwood has always been able to get his players focused on goals, and St. Cloud has some pretty big ones coming into the 2012 season, being pre-season ranked #16. Their loss last week, although it hurts, doesn't necessarily mean anything, there is nothing this group still can not accomplish. Underwood didn't become the quickest coach to 30-wins in St. Cloud history for nothing, and don't forget, he has had some pretty big issues to overcome in his four seasons there.

I don't expect to see Phil Klaphake repeat his performance last week, and I look for St. Cloud to bounce back to get the win.

Extra Point: A little something I did not know though about this series, St. Cloud State and Upper Iowa first played in 1949. A game, that was actually won by Upper Iowa 23-20.


Winona State (1-0) at Minnesota Duluth (1-0)
Last Year: 24-6 Minnesota Duluth

Alas, after making you read all of this, I get to Winona State and Minnesota Duluth. Southwest Minnesota State Coach Corey Sauter said it best when describing Duluth, they just don't make any mistakes.

Sauter, said that after the Bulldogs pulled away from Southwest down the stretch on their way to a 45-20 victory over the Mustangs. Sauter is right, Minnesota Duluth isn't overly flashy, they are a physical footblal team that just doesn't make any mistakes, not even in the season's first game.

The other thing they do, is they take advantage of the mistakes their opponents make. The Bulldogs hit a lot of their big runs last week on Mustang over pursuit. By that I mean, their backs exercise great vision, and whether it was Austin Sikorski, Brian Lucas, or freshman Logan Lauters running the football, they found the openings, even if the opening was created on the plays back side.

On a side note, Minnesota Duluth has another solid trio of backs. Sikorski and Lucas proved themselves last year, but the difference maker could be the freshman Lauters, he has the look of a special player, and I think he could be the next great back in the Northern Sun.

As far as Winona goes, I said this before, I think they are as good as they ever have been, and very well could be the most talented team in the Northern Sun. Rayon Simmons is a special running back, he barely broke a sweat in his 14-carry 85-yard two touchdown performance last week.

The Bulldogs will be tough against the run, but they are not unbeatable yet defensively, there is still a lot of inexperience on that side of the ball especially in the linebacking core, and they are somewhat vulnerable to the pass, giving up over 300-yards to Southwest through the air.

John Tiegland will need to play well for Winona, if Brian Bradshaw plays the same goes for him, to give the Warriors a shot to win the game.

I just don't think it is likely the Warriors can go into Duluth and win. If they do, in my mind, they become the favorites to win the Northern Sun, but the Bulldogs are not the four time conference champion for nothing, I will take the Bulldogs to get the victory. ]]> Aaron Ziemer http://www.d2messageboard.com/entry.php?584-Week-2-Northern-Sun-Matchups http://www.d2messageboard.com/entry.php?572-Northern-Sun-Press-Release-For-Week-2 Tue, 04 Sep 2012 16:05:42 GMT A crazy weekend of Northern Sun Football is in the books, and another on the horizon. Here is the press release from the Northern Sun following... A crazy weekend of Northern Sun Football is in the books, and another on the horizon.

Here is the press release from the Northern Sun following Week 1.

http://www.northernsun.org/documents...ReleaseNo2.pdf ]]> Aaron Ziemer http://www.d2messageboard.com/entry.php?572-Northern-Sun-Press-Release-For-Week-2 http://www.d2messageboard.com/entry.php?556-NSIC-Opener-(2-of-3) Thu, 30 Aug 2012 17:56:10 GMT *Upper Iowa at Bemidji State* Last Year: 48-7, Bemidji State Chet Anderson Stadium is likely to be alive and rockin on Friday night as the... Upper Iowa at Bemidji State

Last Year: 48-7, Bemidji State

Chet Anderson Stadium is likely to be alive and rockin on Friday night as the Bemidji State Beavers open their season at home against Upper Iowa.

For the Beavers, it stands as their only home night game, and what's more its on a Friday night, its supposed to be fairly warm, and right along the lake, I couldn't think of a better spot to watch a football game on Friday night.

Bemidji's offense is led by its rushing attack. Senior Dustin Kroeplin is back, he has rushed for 2500 yards through three seasons as the Beavers running back. Kroeplin is a powerful back, he is still the key to their offensive attack.

Lance Rongstad is taking snaps starting his senior season, Rongstad is a lot like Chace Vogler at Duluth, he is a threat with his feet and his arm. A strong, athlete, Rongstad is also a guard on the basketball team, has the ability to stop teams from keying on Kroeplin because he himself is a threat to break one on the ground at any moment.

He will have his favorite target back at Tight end, pre-season All American Brody Leonhardt expect the Beavers to be strong offensively. The only question mark Bemidji really has offensively is upfront, they lost three starters on the offensive line, and have moved around the other two, so the unit as a whole will have a new look. However, all three players they are plugging in have experience, so they should still be pretty strong.

Upper Iowa has a weapon in Chris Smith, he is a speedy, mostly straight ahead sprinter type runner, but he has the ability to break away, if he has an opening. While other guys may be more physical, they may make more people miss, or may be better all around backs, Smith may have the fastest top end speed of any back in the conference. Overall, Smith ran for over 1,200 yards and averaged nearly 7.2 yards per carry.

That may be the matchup to watch in this one, Smith's ability to run against Bemidji's run stuffing defense led by pre-season All American nose tackle, Matthew Shaver.

Smith didn't play in their meeting last year, so there isn't much to take from the game if you ask me. He will be a big part of their offensive success in 2012.

I think the Peacocks are on the right track in Fayette, it seems like they have been making some big steps, and they may surprise a team or two this year, I just don't think it will happen this week. I will take the Beavers to win their opener at home.



Mary at Concordia

I think the Northern Sun's best game this week will take place in St. Paul. At least on paper it appears that it could be that way.

Both programs are looking to take the next step in what is a very difficult conference to make that jump, as each are coming off of solid 2011 campaigns. They are in different spots though, Mary returns Craig Bagnell, who if you ask me is about to show himself as one of the Top Quarterbacks in the Northern Sun. Concordia will find out what life is like this year without Spencer Ohm, who at the end of last season, when he returned from injury was throwing the ball around like he was the Northern Sun's top qb.

James Peterson takes over at Concordia, the sophomore has already been named a team camptain, and he had some success in 2009 when he saw extended playing time due to an injury to Ohm. Peterson himself though, missed last season because of an injury, but he has the ability to put up numbers. Not only is Peterson the new signal caller, their leading rusher, Sam Campbell, and leading receiver and playmaker Charles Gilbert all have graduated and moved on. So that leaves us a lot to learn about the Golden Bears.

Receiver Tre Mason, running back Tre Spears, will be called on to play an increased roll this year for the Golden Bears.

While, Golden Bears are going to be new at the skill positions, the Marauders have a lot of experience back. We already mentioned Bagnell who threw for 2,400 yards and 19-touchdowns last season.

Tyler Steffan is back as well, all he did last year was go for over 900-yards receiving and catch 17 touchdowns.

The game will come down to whether or not Concordia will be able to get to Bagnell. Defensive end Zach Moore, is a pre-season All American for the Golden Bears, but Concordia struggled to stop opponents last year, and that might determine whether or not they come out of this week with a victory.

So I wasn't sure which way to go, but then there is this, Mary has never lost to Concordia in St. Paul, sure their series is split at 2-2, but the home team has never won, while I could see this one honestly going either way, I am going to lean towards Mary, picking up the victory.

Our final two picks will come up next week! ]]> Aaron Ziemer http://www.d2messageboard.com/entry.php?556-NSIC-Opener-(2-of-3) http://www.d2messageboard.com/entry.php?544-Northern-Sun-Opens-On-Thursday Tue, 28 Aug 2012 15:53:42 GMT *Minnesota Duluth at Southwest Minnesota State* After four consecutive NSIC Championships, and two National Championships in the last four years,... Minnesota Duluth at Southwest Minnesota State

After four consecutive NSIC Championships, and two National Championships in the last four years, there is no question that the University of Minnesota Duluth is the pre-season favorite in the Northern Sun.

The Bulldogs have earned that right, and with Chace Vogler as their now fourth year starting quarterback, the Bulldog offense may be even stronger. Coach Bob Nielson says Vogler has worked hard to improve his passing, and with his entire receiving core returning from last season, the Bulldogs may have a better passing attack than they have had since the days of their last fourth year starting quarterback Ted Schlafke.

Further, the Bulldogs have a lot of experience returning at running back, where Nielson expects to use a running back by committee approach. Look for Austin Sikorski though to rise to the top of the group, the sophomore led the team in rushing before he was hurt in mid-October, but their are certainly some other backs in the mix especially early in the season. Upfront the Bulldogs replace the loss of three starterts along the offensive line, by filling in Jake Scherer a transfer who started at Wisconsin at the left tackle position.

Defensively, the Bulldogs will have to replace three linebackers and two players in their secondary, but with John Steger, back as the defensive coordinator, look for the group to adapt quickly.

Southwest will provide a good test to that defense, as the Mustangs will likely look to attack those new faces through the air, with their own Senior quarterback Tyler Peschong. Peschong, who is a bit of a dual threat in his own right, as he led the Northern Sun in total offense last year, will look to help the Mustangs make a statement.

Southwest will have a rebuilt defensive unit, and that unit, will could have as many as 3-4 freshman contributing. That bodes well for the future, but could be a problem stopping the high powered Bulldogs.

I look for a fairly high scoring game, but I expect the Bulldogs to emerge convincingly.


MSU Mankato at Minot State

Everything else aside in Mankato, the Mavericks are getting set to hit the road this week and travel to Minot, which might be a good thing to get away from the distractions and on the road, where they can focus on the task at hand, beating Minot State.

Thursday night's game, will be the first ever between the Beavers and the Mavericks, and the first game for Aaron Keen who is the acting head coach for the Mavericks.

Keen, has been a head college football coach before, he coached at Illinois College, and posted a 23-27 record as the head coach of the BlueBoys.

Minnesota State was picked to win the NSIC South for a reason, because they have a well balanced offensive attack, and strong defensive unit.

The Mavericks will be led by Andy Pfeiffer, who returns after posting the third best single season rushing effort in school history last year when he rushed for 1,229 yards on the ground a season ago.

The Mavericks will have a new starting quarterback in 2012. Jon Daniels played well last year, for the Mavericks, and now it will go to Junior Jon Wolf. As a redshirt freshman Wolf played a few games at quarterback, and showed he can be effective as he ran for over 100-yards against Southwest. Wolf is such a good athlete last year, he split time between quarterback, running back, and receiver. As a freshman he was actually named the team's Offensive Newcomer of the Year.

The Beavers do bring back a little experience on the defensive side of the ball, they return their four of their top five leading tacklers from last season. Minot will be led on that side of the ball by junior linebacker, Chad Marshall, who led Minot with 81-tackles as a sophomore last season.

Offensively though, they could struggle against the powerful Maverick defense, sophomores Bryce Jorgenson and C.J. Evans split time at the quarterback position last year. Combined the two threw for just 10-touchdowns, and around 1,900 yards.

That could be a tough start against a rugged Maverick defense. I like Minnesota State to head over to Minot and emerge with a victory.

Extra Point: Minot State hasn't won their opening game in 10-years, their last season opening victory came against Bemidji State in 2002.



Minnesota Crookston at Winona State

We knew years ago when he came into the league, Rayon Simmons was going to be a special player. Entering his senior season, Simmons has an opportunity to do some special things.

The NSIC South Division Pre-Season Offensive Player of the Year, Simmons needs just 394 yards to become Winona State's all time leading rusher. He already has become only the fourth player in Winona history to reach 3,000 yards rushing. Now, he has a chance to become the leading rusher in NSIC history, another 1,000 yard season from Simmons and he will go to heights never seen by a running back in this league.

Simmons will be the leader, but not the only threat in a dangerous, and potentially explosive Warrior backfield.

I think the Warriors might be a surprise team in the Northern Sun this year, but with 15-straight winning seasons its hard to call them a surprise, but I think they could take the next step, and that's a step to compete for a conference title.

Winona finished 2011 on a 4-game winning streak, this group is primed to build on that momentum and challenge for a conference title and a shot at the playoffs. Winona has a week two showdown with Minnesota Duluth, they get Minnesota State at home, where they are always tough to beat, and then travel to Augustana near the end of the season.

I don't know that one of those tougher challenges will be this week against Minnesota Crookston, who is rebuilding yet again.

Paul Miller takes over as the head coach of the Golden Eagles, he was the offensive coordinator last year under Chuck Moeller.

Miller has been a long time assistant coach at the high school and college levels, and helped to engineer an offensive unit that averaged rushing for 231 yards a game last season. He does return his two leading rushers from last season in running back Richard Haley, who rushed for 1,556 yards and quarterback Aj Barge, who netted over 700 yards on the ground.

Crookston hopefully makes some progress towards their goal of becomming more competitive this season, but don't look for that progress to be gained much this week against Winona, I like the Warriors at home to win easily.


University of Sioux Falls at St. Cloud State

The University of Sioux Falls has made their way to the NSIC, they are the other newcomer to the league. USF, for years, was a powerhouse in football winning National Championships in 1996, 2006, 2008, and 2009.

The Cougars found out last year that things are a little different in Division II, and this year, they will find out what the Northern Sun is like, and so why not have them take on another one of those conference favorites, in St. Cloud State.

The Huskies are expecting big things in 2012. Quarterback Phillip Klaphake was picked as the NSIC Pre Season Offensive Player of the Year in the North. He dealt with some injuries in 2011, but during his time at St. Cloud has shown himself to be a strong armed playmaker, who can hurt teams either with that arm or his legs.

The Huskies also have playmakers on the defensive side of the ball, defensive back Marvin Matthews. Matthews was second on St. Cloud's defense in tackling last season, and was named the NSIC North Division's Pre-Season Defensive Player of the Year. He also picked off three passes last year, demonstrating the ability to be a complete defensive back against the run and the pass.

USF did finish 5-4 last year, which was their 18th consecutive winning season. That is an impressive streak, however none of those five wins came against an established Division II opponent, they did almost beat Division I North Dakota though.

Carrington Hanna and Taylor Perkins return at the quarterback position for the Cougars. Both can run and throw the ball. Hanna rushed for five touchdowns last season, while Perkins posted slightly better passing numbers. Perkins opens 2012 at the top of the Depth Chart, and freshman Calvin Jacobson is the other name listed on the two deep, so I would expect to see Perkins get most of the snaps on Thursday.

USF will win some games in the Northern Sun this year, keeping that streak alive will be tough for them though this season, and I don't see them beating St. Cloud on Thursday night. I will take the Huskies.

We will have more to come on the weekend games, including Friday night's game between Upper Iowa and Bemidji State later in the week.

To recap quickly, I like Minnesota Duluth over Southwest, Minnesota State over Minot State, Winona State over Minnesota Crookston, and St. Cloud State over Sioux Falls. ]]> Aaron Ziemer http://www.d2messageboard.com/entry.php?544-Northern-Sun-Opens-On-Thursday